The European Dream?
Could Europe become a superpower by 2020? According to the CIA's "Mapping the Future Program model", an enlarged EU will enjoy increased clout in the world, but it will be hampered by the costs associated with supporting new members, by its aging population, and by the inefficient nature of its governing structures and decision-making processes. The Report sees Europe's major strength as being a model to the rest of the world for regional harmonization and governance. Defense spending is not expected to keep up with that of China, although the potential emergence of an EU army could create a replacement for NATO. The 2020 forecast touches upon Turkey's membership as the key to a united Europe's prospects: if Turkey successfully joins, Europe will be a strategic crossroads capable of forging stronger bonds with the Muslim world, Africa, and to the East, with Russia and Central Eurasia. New immigration will be the key to offsetting Europe's low birth rate, if more legal immigration and better integration of workers from other countries occurs over the next 15 years.
Work on the report began in late 2003, and brought together more than two dozen leading outside experts from a wide variety of disciplines and backgrounds to engage in a broad-gauged discussion with U.S. intelligence community analysts. Initial meetings were convened with experts in the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, and in an unprecedented expansion of the consultative process, regional conferences were held in countries on four continents-- in the UK, South Africa, Singapore, Chile, and Hungary -- in order to receive input from academics, policymakers, and representatives of NGOs. As well, the MGF's four custom-tooled scenarios were honed by contributions from three leading "futurists"-- Ted Gordon of the UN's Millennium Project, Jim Dewar, director of the RAND Corporation's Center for Longer Range Global Policy & Future of the Human Condition; and Ged Davis, former head of Shell International's scenarios project.
A copy is available for downloading on: http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf
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