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3/20/06

globeandmail.com : Sanctions on China won't alleviate U.S. woes - by Andrew Busch

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Sanctions on China won't alleviate U.S. woes - by Andrew Busch

Despite a ridiculously bad stretch for U.S. President George W. Bush, matters could get worse. But let's run through the numbers first. Mr. Bush's job approval rating is now 37 per cent, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. It's been under 40 per cent since October, and this is the longest time below 40 per cent of any president except Jimmy Carter. Ouch.

Then there's Senator Russ Feingold's motion to censure Mr. Bush for authorizing warrantless wiretaps. Republicans have chastised the Wisconsin Democrat for the motion, and Democrats have given it a chilly reception. The only time a president was censured was in 1834. According to Mr. Feingold, he just wants "people to be talking about ways to bring accountability, whether censure succeeds or not." Either way, it's not helpful and continues to weigh on sentiment for Mr. Bush.March 31 is the deadline for a vote in the Senate on Mr. Schumer's bill to slap 27.5-per-cent tariffs on all Chinese goods to offset the Chinese manipulation of the currency to keep it artificially weak. If the Senators don't hear what they like, you can bet this will be brought to the floor and voted on. They may do it anyway for political gain to fully press Republicans and Mr. Bush on trade. Without question, the U.S. current account, at 7 per cent of gross domestic product, is astounding and disconcerting. From the International Monetary Fund to U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke, financial experts are sounding warnings on the potential for a massive adjustment shock to the U.S. dollar.

Trade legislation would do very little to solve the trade deficit issue and could trigger the U.S. dollar shock. Equities wouldn't be far behind.

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