Two preconditions for hope in the Middle East - by Anthony Cordesman
The most the world can now hope for out of current events in the Arab-Israeli conflict is the kind of pause or ceasefire that comes from exhaustion or the temporary intimidation of one side. Hizbollah and Hamas may be forced to back down, but only for a while. Even if they do agree to some form of ceasefire, they can still go on attacking Israel using proxies or claiming “misunderstandings” or accidents.
If there is to be any real hope, two things have to happen. First, the UN has to help Lebanon actually disarm Hizbollah, stop it from receiving further arms from Iran and Syria and prevent it sending military aid to Hamas. Brokering a ceasefire and another hollow UN peacekeeping force will have a short-term cosmetic impact, at best. Second, the Quartet group of Middle East mediators – the US, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations – should break its near silence to put major pressure on both Israel and the Palestinians: on Israel, to halt unilateral expansion into the West Bank and aid moderate Palestinian voices such as Mr Abbas; and on the Palestinians, to understand that aid and support are tied to either Hamas changing or going. This must be followed by a “road map” that confronts both sides with a true peace plan, specific final settlement proposals and time schedule – a plan over which the Quartet members unite and constantly pressure both sides to adopt. Half measures and conventional diplomacy in the current situation have all the value of putting lipstick on a pig and will be neither Halal nor Kosher.
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