The West's (EU's) Lever on Moscow: Money
The EU has few options for reining in an assertive Moscow, though some analysts think Russia is vulnerable because it wants to expand the market for its gas.With Dmitri Medvedev now firmly enthroned as Russia's next president, talk has turned toward coming up with a tough new plan for "dealing" with the country. No more looking into the eyes of a new Russian president and seeing an honest soul; no more disunity among European leaders who rush to declare themselves Putin's new best friend; and no more letting energy dependency trump questions over democracy and human rights.Currently Russia has the best of both worlds. We don't insist on open markets and a rule of law on their part, but offer it to them. Russia has no need of aid, but Russian companies like IPOs and international loans. FDI is OK, but nowhere near as high as it could be."
So the sticks and carrots would seem to be fairly clear -- the hard part will be coming up with a plan. European states have been disunified, self-centered, and even cynical, ceding a far more strategic and undoubtedly effective posture by racing to cut bilateral deals. The EU should set forth clear and fundamental parameters for the Russian relationship, and then not back down at the slightest growl.
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