Arizona Daily Star: U.S. should stay out of Georgia fray - by Pat Willerton

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U.S. should stay out of Georgia fray - by Pat Willerton

Georgia's recent surprise attack on the secessionist region of South Ossetia unleashed another round of unpredictable developments that exacerbate the ancient ethnic rivalries of these Caucasus peoples.The American public discussion has returned to the rhetoric of the Cold War years. Perhaps this was predictable given we are in the midst of a presidential campaign, but the rush of all commentators — conservative and liberal, Democratic, Republican and independent — to outdo one another in their disdain for Russia and its actions, only clouds our efforts to form a balanced perspective on the complex developments in the troubled Caucasus.First, it was Georgian forces that attacked South Ossetia and destabilized the fragile peace that characterized this area for the past decades. While each side in the conflict claims that its adversary took actions that precipitated this latest war, it was the Georgians who first crossed borders, fired shots and killed Russians.
Second, this region — like all of the Caucasus — has been overwhelmed by ethnic rivalries for centuries involving wars, forced migrations and ethnic cleansing. In this regard, there is blood on all parties' hands; there are no "good guys" or "bad guys" when taking the long view.

Third, a complex set of bilateral and multilateral arrangements crafted by Russia, Georgia and other regional actors left an uneasy peace that characterized the 17-year post- Soviet period up until two weeks ago. While none of these countries were happy with these arrangements, they were observing them.

Fourth, all outside actors (the United States, Turkey, the European Union and NATO) avoided involvement in the tricky security arrangements. Only Russia, a Caucasus state itself, and its international organization, the CIS, have been directly involved in the management of the region's security architecture.

The Saakashvili regime's ill-considered and inept actions seriously weakened the Georgian position, and — like it or not — Georgia will negotiate from a far weaker position. Georgia will not be joining NATO or the European Union any time soon. Its ability to reabsorb the secessionist region was dealt a severe setback.
Meanwhile, near-unanimous Russian domestic support for its government's decisive actions signifies a profound strengthening of the new Dmitry Medvedev presidency.