There has already been a short-term impact; the stock prices of both of those companies declined Thursday. Longer term, the trend toward offering free navigation tools will enhance the value of multifunction smartphones, especially for Nokia, which makes more mobile phones than any manufacturer but has performed poorly in the U.S.
The emergence of free navigation on smartphones also means that a major consolidation among smaller GPS providers is likely, Bonte predicted. And some companies will go out of business entirely. In December, for instance, TeleCommunications Systems Inc. in Annapolis, Md., bought Networks in Motion Inc., a provider of wireless navigation for GPS-enabled phones, for $110 million in cash and stock.
The future of Appello Systems, Telenav, and other smaller GPS players is in question, Bonte said. "Maybe the bigger ones will survive, but I can't see how all will survive," he added. "They may disappear or merge or be acquired by Apple maybe."
For more: Analysis: Free Nokia GPS could hurt TomTom, Garmin
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