Contemplating the Future of the European Union - by Liz Alderman

In 1870, the French novelist Victor Hugo had a vision. Planting an oak tree in his yard, he predicted that by the time it matured, a “United States of Europe” would have sprung up, strengthened by a common currency that would one day make the Continent a force to be reckoned with.

One hundred and forty years later, the dream, like Hugo’s tree, is alive — if a little twisted. Around Europe, 27 nations now fly the flag of the European Union next to their own. Sixteen have ditched the drachmas, marks and other bills that symbolized their sovereignty to embrace a single currency, the euro, lending new power to their economic and trade bloc.

When the dust settles, Europe will probably still be a union with separate national parliaments and fiscal policies, says Thomas Mayer, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank. But he says he foresees economic policies that will be more tightly coordinated between countries, with a mechanism to resolve crises like the one brought on by Greece today. If that happens, the number of stable countries adopting the euro would probably grow, cementing Europe’s economic might as the decades pass.

For more: Contemplating the Future of the European Union - NYTimes.com