Kofi Annan's resignation is yet another sign that the attempts at a peaceful resolution have failed. Syria's future most likely will be dediced by military means. In the current situation, two scenarios are possible: Either the conflict would get so violent that both sides eventually will be forced to start negotiating, or - the more likely scenario - the Assad regime will fall. Then, though, the fragmented country would most likely face a continuation of the civil war along ethnic and religious lines. A prolonged conflict would destroy the country's infrastructure and society in a way that would destablize Syria for a long period - with devastating consequences for the entire region. The UN estimates that some 16,000 people have already died. There are hundreds of thousands of refugees - the entire country is affected.
With diplomacy having failed, the calls for military intervention will be getting louder and louder. Yet the West is hesitant; after the experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, it does not want to be drawn into yet more asymmetric warfare. NATO would be wise to reject the Libyan path - attacking the government forces from the air while letting the locals do the fighting and dying on the ground. Air raids always lead to civilian casualties. And it couldn't be ruled out that Western countries might eventually be drawn into a ground offensive after all. Even with air raids only, NATO would find itself supporting a rebel army that violates international law and also is guilty of human rights violations - albeit to a lesser extent than the government troops.
US President Barack Obama is surely aware of the potential domestic consequences in store should he bomb the opposition to power, which could then lead to revenge against the Alawi and Christian minorities that the Sunni view as supporters of Assad. Many Sunni have not forgotten that Bashar Assad's father killed some 20,000 Sunni in 1982. There are several old scores to settle, and they're getting larger by the day.
Read more: Opinion: The end of diplomacy | World | DW.DE | 04.08.2012
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