EU-DIGEST: US Midterm Elections: Midterms of engagement: How the next US elections will affect Europe

11/4/18

US Midterm Elections: Midterms of engagement: How the next US elections will affect Europe

"Who made you the Boss"

In both the United States and Europe, there is intense focus on whether the Democrats will win control of the US Congress in the November midterm elections.

As always under the Trump presidency, the affair has all the elements of a great drama: compelling characters, a strong storyline, and elaborate sets. But beyond the must-see TV, what is really at stake for Europe in the vote?

Unfortunately, the midterms will reveal little of what we really want to know: whether the Trump presidency will endure into a second term. But they will tell us something about the Trump administration’s foreign policy in the next two years. In short, the midterms election will either unleash Trump or leave him unhinged.

The US has national elections every two years – whether it needs them or not. Most democracies wait four or five years between such votes, but America’s founders wanted its legislature to remain close to the people, so they established a rapid rhythm of consultation with the public. In modern times, however, it unclear whether the American people have anything new to say after only two years. The vast majority of the seats up for election (at least 345 out of 470) are in safe districts and just 11 percent of the public express confidence in Congress. Accordingly, turnout has been low: only 37 percent of eligible voters in 2014. This combination of indifference to and contempt for Congress means that midterm elections are widely interpreted as an interim report card on the incumbent president.

The 2018 midterms will provide the first piece of compelling evidence in the debate. If the Republicans retain control of Congress, this will lend credence to the idea that the US is inexorably drifting away from the internationalist values that have long underpinned its close relationship with the nations of Europe. If the Democrats seize control of even one chamber of Congress, betting parlours will raise the odds on a Democrat taking the White House in 2020 and Europeans will continue to wait for the Trump moment to pass.

Note EU-Digest: It is high time the EU charts out their own course. Please "wake-up" EU Commission and EU Parliament - Populism is not the answer for Europe.