Two cars are hurtling towards each other down a narrow country lane.
Both have the option to pull over but neither driver wants to give way
first. What happens next?
This is the sort of scenario that lies at the heart of game theory, the use of models to show how rational decision-makers interact with each other. Game theory is big in economics and, in the current circumstances, that’s hardly surprising because two key political issues lend themselves to game theory analysis.
The first is the US-China trade war, with the two cars heading towards each other down the country road being driven by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The vehicles have already ignored plenty of passing places along the way and a head-on crash is a distinct possibility.
The “game” between the US and China has been between two well-matched opponents. Up until now, the “game” between the UK and the EU over Brexit has been much more one-sided. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, operated from the outset on the assumption that for all her tough talk, Theresa May would always be the first to blink. And in the negotiations that culminated in the draft withdrawal agreement last autumn, he was proved absolutely right.
Boris Johnson has arrived in Downing Street and has reshaped the cabinet so that it is run by Brexit true believers rather than those who backed remain in the referendum. Preparations for a no-deal departure have been ramped up in order to show the rest of the EU that the government means what it says. Johnson has made it clear that he is in no hurry to start negotiations and, by spraying money, is creating the impression that he would be willing to call a general election in order to get a mandate for his tougher Brexit approach.
From a game theory perspective, all this makes complete sense. Like Trump with Xi, the prime minister is trying to keep the EU guessing.
So far the EU has kept to its course, refusing to countenance the idea that it might need to reopen the withdrawal agreement. That is because it thinks parliament will wrench the wheel out of Johnson’s hands at the last minute to prevent a crash.
That may prove correct but the new sense of nervousness in Dublin is a measure of how the nature of the UK-EU game of chicken has changed. Leo Varadkar is worried about the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the Irish economy. What should also concern the taoiseach is whether the EU would be prepared to sell Ireland out in order to avoid one.
Read more at: Boris Johnson takes note of Trump's game theory to keep EU guessing on Brexit | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian
The Digest Group
Almere-Digest
EU-Digest
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This is the sort of scenario that lies at the heart of game theory, the use of models to show how rational decision-makers interact with each other. Game theory is big in economics and, in the current circumstances, that’s hardly surprising because two key political issues lend themselves to game theory analysis.
The first is the US-China trade war, with the two cars heading towards each other down the country road being driven by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The vehicles have already ignored plenty of passing places along the way and a head-on crash is a distinct possibility.
The “game” between the US and China has been between two well-matched opponents. Up until now, the “game” between the UK and the EU over Brexit has been much more one-sided. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, operated from the outset on the assumption that for all her tough talk, Theresa May would always be the first to blink. And in the negotiations that culminated in the draft withdrawal agreement last autumn, he was proved absolutely right.
Boris Johnson has arrived in Downing Street and has reshaped the cabinet so that it is run by Brexit true believers rather than those who backed remain in the referendum. Preparations for a no-deal departure have been ramped up in order to show the rest of the EU that the government means what it says. Johnson has made it clear that he is in no hurry to start negotiations and, by spraying money, is creating the impression that he would be willing to call a general election in order to get a mandate for his tougher Brexit approach.
From a game theory perspective, all this makes complete sense. Like Trump with Xi, the prime minister is trying to keep the EU guessing.
So far the EU has kept to its course, refusing to countenance the idea that it might need to reopen the withdrawal agreement. That is because it thinks parliament will wrench the wheel out of Johnson’s hands at the last minute to prevent a crash.
That may prove correct but the new sense of nervousness in Dublin is a measure of how the nature of the UK-EU game of chicken has changed. Leo Varadkar is worried about the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the Irish economy. What should also concern the taoiseach is whether the EU would be prepared to sell Ireland out in order to avoid one.
Read more at: Boris Johnson takes note of Trump's game theory to keep EU guessing on Brexit | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian
The Digest Group
Almere-Digest
EU-Digest
Insure-Digest
Turkish-Digest
For additional information, including advertising rates - e-mail:Freeplanet@protonmail.com
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