In their dealings with Turkey in 2020,
NATO and the European Union will sit across a more assertive
interlocutor than ever before, but one they can hardly ignore.
NATO leaders will have to cope with the
actual deployment of Russian S-400 missiles, the possible acquisition of
Russian fighter aircraft, the continuing Turkish military operations in
northern Syria, and an incipient military deployment in Libya.
EU leaders will deal with ongoing issues,
such as Syrian refugees in Turkey, the expulsion of jihadists of EU
origin, and drilling operations around Cyprus, as well as new topics
like the agreement with Libya on maritime boundaries, the implications
for EU businesses resulting from eventual U.S. sanctions, and the
consequences of Brexit for Turkey’s relations with the UK and the EU.
The number and seriousness of these
issues, as well as the potential for more adverse developments in
Turkey’s policies, justify a firm, resolute, and yet cooperative policy
from NATO and the European Union.
President Erdoğan’s Justice and
Development Party (AKP) has been in power since November 2002.
Erdoğan
himself was prime minister from March 2003 until August 2014 and
president of the republic thereafter. One of the main achievements
during that period was a notable increase in prosperity,
resulting in
the creation of a new middle class; a massive development of
transportation, irrigation, and social infrastructure; and a military
buildup.
This is illustrated in a list of 824 projects launched and/or completed in the 2010–2019 period.
The presidency’s operating mode is one mixing bold initiatives producing visible results in the public space with the steady elimination of freedom of expression and a tight control of the media and the judiciary, as illustrated in contentious events like the 2019 municipal elections and the Gezi trial.
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