Russia intervened militarily in the Syrian civil war on the side of President Bashar al-Assad, whose regime was then on the defensive. Over the next few months, Russia gave a combat debut to several new weapons systems, striking targets across Syria and helping Assad's forces regain the offensive against his ragtag rebel opponents.
Russia seized the opportunity the conflict presented to showcase and put its military gear to the test. While the Russian expeditionary force based out of western Syria included Soviet-era workhorse aircraft like the Su-24 Fencer and Su-25 Frogfoot, it also featured sleek new planes like the Su-34 Fullback. Russian Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers that had never been in combat before flew long-range missions from Russia itself to bomb targets in Syria. In another demonstration of the Russian military's reach, Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from the Caspian Sea into Syria early in the conflict.
In January, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army, admitted that he was surprised "when Kalibr missiles came flying out of the Caspian Sea, hitting targets in Syria."
"That was a surprise to me, not only the capability, but I didn't even know they were there," he confessed.
Hodges called Syria a "live-fire training opportunity" for Russia’s military. This view was echoed by none other than Russian President Vladimir Putin, who described his Syrian campaign as "a more effective training for the country's military than drills."
While Saudi Arabia had agreed to buy the S-400 in 2017, it ultimately opted for the American THAAD system instead. Since talk of co-developing a fifth-generation fighter with Russia, the United States permitted UAE to buy 50 fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II jets in late 2020. While Abu Dhabi has suspended talks on that landmark deal that doesn’t mean it will turn to Russia for an alternative. It also remains to be seen if Russia can even fully develop either the Su-75 or the Su-57. In the meantime, the UAE seems content with its multi-billion-dollar order for 80 highly-formidable 4.5-generation French Dassault Rafale F4 jets it signed in late 2021.
In 2018, Egypt ordered a fleet of Su-35s, running the risk of incurring CAATSA sanctions. Egypt made that order since the United States had refused for decades to sell it either advanced long-range air-to-air missiles or heavyweight air superiority fighters. However, Egypt is reportedly unhappy with its purchase. For one, the Su-35s Russia built for it lack Actively Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar. Furthermore, Egypt found that the electronic countermeasures of its Rafale jets swiftly overpowered the Su-35's Irbis-E radar. Now, Washington seems willing to finally sell Cairo F-15s for the first time, which would completely negate its need for Su-35s.
Not only will Russia find it much harder to sell new weapons systems, but it will also find it challenging to provide maintenance for and supply spare parts to present operators of Russian hardware. This could make even long-time Russian arms clients, such as Algeria, reconsider their options going forward.
"I do think many countries that have these legacy Russian systems will be worried – not only worried about buying new fancy systems like the S-400, but we're just talking ammunition, spare parts, basic supplies for Russian legacy systems that they already have," Donald Lu, assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian Affairs, told a Senate Foreign Relations subpanel in early March.
All these difficulties, obstacles, and uncertainties will most likely lead more countries in the Middle East, like most other parts of the world, to conclude that going into the arms business with Russia is more trouble than its worth.
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Russia Now Has Little Hope Of Becoming A Major Middle East Arms Supplier
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