Turkey: A balancing act between Ukraine, Russia and the West, can Turkey keep it up ?

Turkey has been walking a tightrope between Ukraine and Russia, trying not to harm the relations it has with both countries. 

So how did we get here, and is it a viable long term strategy for Ankara?

Less than two weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on 10 March last year, Turkey entered the stage to play a mediator role between the countries, but the meetings held at foreign minister level in Antalya left participants empty-handed.

As ties got closer, concern amongst opposition in Turkey grew. Questions have been asked repeatedly in the Turkish press: would this friendship open a path for Russian manipulation of the Turkish elections in favour of Erdogan?

"Turkey's trade relations with Moscow were already at a peak, against the backdrop of a series of sanctions imposed on Russia from the US and the EU," says Professor Bilgic. 

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), Turkey doubled its trade volume when imports from Russia rose to $58.85 billion (€55.44 billion) in 2022 - that's up from from $28.96 (€27.28  billion) billion the previous year.

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