Based on reports from a variety of news resources in the Middle East and Europe it is quite clear there is a major strategic and geo-political shuffle going on in the Middle East which could have far reaching consequences for the whole region, and Turkey is certainly playing a major, if not the lead role in these developments
The phrase “West Kurdistan”, used to describe north-east Syria, would in the past send shivers down the spine of any Turkish prime minister, but Recep
Tayyip Erdogan is shivering a lot more at the imminent prospect of
Jabhat Al Nusra, the Al Qaida affiliate, controlling a large part of
northern Syria, including long stretches of the 900-kilometre border
that Syria shares with Turkey.
Consequently Turkey is working hard to develop a much more active approach to the
emerging new Kurdish powers south of its borders. It has developed a
good relationship with the KRG ( in Iraq) and the Kurds are buying a lot of Turkish
goods, while at the same time their substantial energy resources are important to
Turkey. This warmth is in stark contrast to the deeply suspicious
approach of ten years ago when the Turks were worried that the KRG would
become a base for the PKK, which has been fighting for autonomy or
possible independence for the Kurdish region in Turkey.
More amazing, Erdogan has held talks with the imprisoned Abdullah
Ocalan, the notorious and ruthless leader of the PKK ( still considered a terrorist organization in the US and EU), and they have come to an
agreement to stop the fighting in the 29-year Kurdish rebellion.
Ocalan said it was time for “the guns to fall silent and for ideas to
speak” and Erdogan called Ocalan’s statement “positive”.
Importantly, Ocalan seems to still be obeyed by the militias in the
field, as Murat Karayilan, a senior PKK commander in Kurdish-controlled
northern Iraq, swiftly declared a ceasefire and the PKK has announced
that it will start to withdraw its 3,000 militiamen from Turkish
territory into the KRG on May 8.
The Iranians must be profoundly worried by these developments. The PKK
has had an offshoot in Iran, the PJAK (Kurdish Free Life Party), which
has had a ceasefire with Iran for almost two years, during which time,
Iran stopped cooperating with Turkey against Kurdish militants of
whatever national origin. Many PKK militiamen from the Iranian struggle
moved over to fight against the Turks, but now it seems very possible
that this “Iranian faction” of the PKK will return to Iran and seek to
take up the struggle against the government once more. This will delight
Erdogan and for Barzani (in Iraq), it will simply be a continuation of the Kurds’ decades-long fight anyway.
Paris-based Kurdish researcher Mustafa Pekoz says: "The Turkish
government's policy aiming to eliminate the PKK went bankrupt last
summer when the PKK launched a new strategy called the
'People's Revolutionary War' which aimed at taking over some areas in
the south-east region. And that strategy undermined the Turkish army's
operations."
"I think it would be accurate to argue that this peace
process is the final exit for the Turkish state," says another Turkish
journalist, Rusen Cakir. It could very well be.
"Presently solving the PKK problem and ending the war can also be seen as a positive step for the AKP's election prospects”
says Zeynep Kaya
of the London School of Economics. She adds this is also true for
the Kurdish movement: "They also want to end a war which they are not
losing, but they have come to realize that they cannot win."
However, one of the overriding factors of this "rapprochment" between the Turks and the Kurds, which is hardly ever mentioned, is the fact that Mr. Erdogan's AK-Party strong religious overtones are more in-line with the Kurds, who are even more religiously orientated than the followers of the AK-Party. Could Sharia law for Turkey be the next step in this so-called "Peace Process" ?
Regardless of how significant these overtures between the Kurds and Turks may seem, one can safely say that this is a huge gamble for the Turkish PM. If he succeeds he will be a hero, if not, the end of his reign will come swiftly.
