EU: Younger population in EU under financial pressure

Young people in Europe are at greater risk of falling into poverty than the overall population, according to Eurostat. 

Their latest figures show that 20% of young people aged 15-29 were at risk of poverty in 2021, while the at-risk-of-poverty rate for the total population of the EU stood at 17%. 

The at-risk-of-poverty metric compares those on low incomes to other residents of the same country

Read more at; https//www.euronews.com

China: Economic growrh China for 2023 predicted to reach 5%

Premier Li Keqiang, the top economic official, set this year's growth target at “around 5%” following the end of anti-virus controls that kept millions of people at home and triggered protests. Last year's growth in the world's second-largest economy fell to 3%, the second-weakest level since at least the 1970s.

“We should give priority to the recovery and expansion of consumption,” Li said in a speech on government plans before the ceremonial National People’s Congress in the Great Hall of the People in central Beijing.

Read more at: https://www.ap.com

Turkey's economy is in deep trouble

Turkey’s economy is in tatters.

Runaway inflation and a collapsing lira are pushing millions of Turks to the brink of financial ruin and slamming factories, farmers and retailers across the country.

More than two-thirds of people in Turkey are struggling to pay for food and cover their rent, according to a survey by Yöneylem Social Research Centre, fuelling a surge in mental illness and debt.

Read more at: https://www.euronews.com

CUBA: Cubans flee island's economic woes by air, land and sea

Cubans are fleeing their country in the largest numbers in more than four decades, choosing to stake their lives and futures on a dangerous journey to the United States by air, land and sea to escape economic and political woes.

Most fly to Nicaragua as tourists and slowly make their way to the U.S. border, often to Texas or Arizona. A smaller number gamble on an ocean voyage. Three men who survived the odyssey spoke to The Associated Press about it.

Read more at: Cubans flee island's economic woes by air, land and sea | AP News

Soaring gas and food prices catapult US inflation to 40-year-high

US inflation accelerated in June by more than forecast, led by elevated prices for gasoline, food and housing costs and resulting in the largest annual increase in inflation in more than 40 years.

The news virtually guarantees that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by another three-quarters of a point this month. Biden is trying to rebuild America’s middle class. Our lopsided economy needs it Heather Cox Richardson Read more

The consumer price index increased 1.3% last month after advancing 1% in May, the US labor department said, pushing inflation to 9.1% from 8.6%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 1.1%.

Read mmore at Soaring gas and food prices catapult US inflation to 40-year-high | US economy | The Guardian

Russia Ukraine Invasion: How Putin’s War in Ukraine Has Ruined Russia

Thirty years ago this spring, Russia was at the beginning of what would be a dramatic, although uneven, economic recovery following the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991. At the moment of the Soviet collapse, Russia inherited a budget deficit that was conservatively estimated at 20 percent of GNP, it faced the threat of hyperinflation, economic growth was negative, there were shortages throughout the economy, foreign reserves were virtually nonexistent, and it was racking up a mountain of international loan commitments. The state faced the realistic threat of famine and bankruptcy. In the decades that followed, however, Russia traveled a long way down the road of economic and social modernization. This was partially due to high global prices for its exports. The country also benefited from good macroeconomic policy and the stewardship of Elvira Nabiullina, the smart and surprisingly independent chairwoman of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) since 2013. Despite Vladimir Putin’s propensity to use public assets for his own personal benefit and that of his former KGB cronies, by 23 February 2022, the day before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the country had paid off its debts, built up sizeable foreign reserves, and for the most part maintained a budget surplus.

Read more at: How Putin’s War in Ukraine Has Ruined Russia | Journal of Democracy

US Economy: Inflation Will Hurt Both Stocks and Bonds - by Nouriel Roubini

Rising inflation in the United States and around the world is forcing investors to assess the likely effects on both “risky” assets (generally stocks) and “safe” assets (such as US Treasury bonds). The traditional investment advice is to allocate wealth according to the 60/40 rule: 60% of one’s portfolio should be in higher-return but more volatile stocks, and 40% should be in lower-return, lower-volatility bonds. The rationale is that stocks and bond prices are usually negatively correlated (when one goes up, the other goes down), so this mix will balance a portfolio’s risks and returns. During a “risk-on period,” when investors are optimistic, stock prices and bond yields will rise and bond prices will fall, resulting in a market loss for bonds; and during a risk-off period, when investors are pessimistic, prices and yields will follow an inverse pattern. Similarly, when the economy is booming, stock prices and bond yields tend to rise while bond prices fall, whereas in a recession, the reverse is true.

But the negative correlation between stock and bond prices presupposes low inflation. When inflation rises, returns on bonds become negative, because rising yields, led by higher inflation expectations, will reduce their market price. Consider that any 100-basis-point increase in long-term bond yields leads to a 10% fall in the market price – a sharp loss. Owing to higher inflation and inflation expectations, bond yields have risen and the overall return on long bonds reached -5% in 2021.

Read more at: Inflation Will Hurt Both Stocks and Bonds by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

Global tipping points: Climate change and the coronavirus – by Emil J. Bergholtz, Nele Brusselaers and Andrew G. Ewing

Economists often embrace such short-term ideas. For example, William Nordhaus, the 2018 Economics Nobel winner, had suggested that an increase of the Earth’s temperature by 3.5 degrees Celsius until the year 2100 would be optimal — the right balance between economic growth and climate protection — and based on this, he worked against climate action, which he finds too costly.

However, climate scientists have since shown Nordhaus’ estimate to be completely incorrect. Nordhaus’ calculations were linear, whereas passing tipping points like melted glaciers, changed ocean currents and deforestation, and their compounding effects, the amplifying feedback loops associated with each, would make it ultimately impossible to bring Earth back to normalcy. A 3.5-degree increase in global temperature might threaten our entire existence.

And just like the process of climate change, COVID-19 also has tipping points, in terms of the emergence of new, more transmissible virus variants, each of which lead to qualitatively fiercer challenges to humanity.

Read more at: Global tipping points: Climate change and the coronavirus – POLITICO

Turkey: 'Shopping like crazy': An inflated lira sees neighbours flock to Turkey

Bulgarian shoppers are crossing Turkey’s western border in packed cars and buses, taking advantage of a declining Turkish lira to enjoy their own shopping sprees.

Their first stop is the currency exchange, and then it's off to the markets and grocery stores in the north-western Turkish city of Edirne.

On Christmas Eve, the city's Turkish marketplace was packed with shoppers from Bulgaria.

Read more at: 'Shopping like crazy': An inflated lira sees neighbours flock to Turkey | Euronews

Brexit: UK economy almost flatlined in October, adding to rate hike doubts - by William Schomberg and Andy Bruce

Gross domestic product edged up by just 0.1%, slowing sharply from September’s 0.6% growth and much weaker than a forecast of 0.4% in a Reuters poll of economists.

The world’s fifth-biggest economy remained 0.5% smaller than it was just before Britain was first hit by COVID-19 in early 2020, the Office for National Statistics said.

Read more at: UK economy almost flatlined in October, adding to rate hike doubts - Metro US

Turkey: Erdogan, on the ropes for his heterodox management of the economy - by MRT

The controversial economic management of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sunk the lira to record lows, something that is exacerbating the persistent inflation in the country and undermining the support bases of the Islamist leader after 19 years at the helm of Turkey. His approval is declining and opposition figures (such as the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara) surpass him in popularity, increasing the chances of a political change in the near future.

That of “Every time he speaks, the bread goes up” could literally be applied to Erdogan. On Wednesday, as he advanced in his speech to the parliamentary group, making clear his intention to “carry through to the end” his fight against high interest rates, the lira lost value. The more the Turkish leader talked and the more he delved into his heterodox theory that high interest rates are the cause of the rise in prices, the more the price of the Turkish currency sank. On Thursday, in a further sign that it has become an institution that limits itself to following the president’s designs, the Central Bank cut interest rates to 15%, further sinking the exchange rate of the lira against the dollar and the euro. and, with this, worsening the prospects for runaway inflation (20% according to official statistics, more than double according to alternative calculations), since Turkish industry and even agriculture must import inputs in foreign currency to be able to produce.

Read more at: https://marketresearchtelecast.com/erdogan-on-the-ropes-for-his-heterodox-management-of-the-economy-international/207285/

Global Warming:: Fossil fuels replaced by hydrogen an economic bonanza

Emission-free hydrogen could, one day,entirettey replace fossil fuels - and a start up in Germany believes it has the key ingredient to make it accessible to all.

Born in a climate-change affected South Pacific Island, Vaitea Cowan believes deeply in green hydrogen technology. She co-founded Enapter more than three years

Read more at: https://www.euronews.com/green/2021/11/07/green-hydrogen-how-half-the-water-flushing-a-toilet-could-power-your-home-for-days

Chinese Economy: China crackdown: How much pain can the economy take?

The future of China's economic miracle has been preying on investors' minds this year in the wake of a far-reaching crackdown by Beijing on many of its key industries.

Billions of dollars have been wiped off the value of several Chinese technology firms as a result of new anti-monopoly and data security rules. Online shopping behemoth Alibaba and its peers have been hit particularly hard.

The curbs have been extended to many other areas of the economy, including the burgeoning cryptocurrency market, where transactions of digital currencies — including Bitcoin — are now effectively illegal. The private education and energy sector have also not been spared.

Read more at: China crackdown: How much pain can the economy take? | Business | Economy and finance news from a German perspective | DW | 07.10.2021

USA: The next financial crisis is fast approaching - by Willem H. Buiter

Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.

As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which lifted its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has hinted that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.

Read more at: Opinion: The next financial crisis is fast approaching - MarketWatch

USA: Quo Vadis, America? - by César Chelala

U.S. intervention in other countries have generally not led to better living conditions for the populations of those countries. In most cases, it has had the opposite effect.

This is true not only in the case of Afghanistan. It is also true of countries such as Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

It is not cynical to replace the old saying “familiarity breeds contempt” with “intervention in other countries breeds contempt.

read more at: Quo Vadis, America? - The Globalist

USA - Poll: Americans More Pessimistic About Economic Future

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 47% of American Adults say the economy will be weaker a year from now, while just 29% say the economy will be stronger. Fifteen percent (15%) expect the economy will be about the same a year from now. That’s a significant decline in economic confidence from March 2017, when 40% expected a stronger economy.

Read more at: Americans More Pessimistic About Economic Future - Rasmussen Reports®

China combs through online content that ‘bad-mouths’ its economy

Beijing has launched a two-month campaign to probe commercial platforms and social media accounts that post economic information, in an attempt to cleanse the media of content that criticizes China’s economic policies. The National Cyberspace Administration of China on Friday launched a “special rectification” action targeting illegal procurement and misinterpretation of financial information. The agency called on social media platforms to carry out checks to cleanse finance-related content that “violates China’s regulations.”
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Read at: China combs through online content that ‘bad-mouths’ its economy — RT Business News

Digital Currencies: China’s digital yuan is a warning to the world

In April 2020 a grainy screenshot of China’s sovereign digital currency, DCEP (short for Digital Currency/Electronic Payments) or the Digital Chinese Yuan (DCNY), was leaked online. The image showed a wallet for the DCNY provided by the Agricultural Bank of China, with payment functions, QR codes, and the ability to tap phones together to pay offline. While the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) had started researching digital currencies as early as 2014, the screenshot was the clearest indication of how far along in the process they were.

Soon after, pilot programmes were rolled out in a few major cities. In Suzhou, the DCNY was used to pay half of the travel subsidies owed to public servants. In October 2020, more than 47,000 people in the Luohu district of Shenzhen spent 8.8 million yuan (£986,000) during a week-long trial of the digital currency. A total of 1.9 million applicants had signed up to receive one of 50,000 digital freebies – or “red envelopes” – from the government. These packets were each worth 200rmb (£22). During the trial, over 62,000 transactions were made. By May 2020, China had already filed more than 120 patent applications for its official digital currency, more than any other country. In Xiong’an, a new urban centre near Beijing, 19 companies, including foreign brands like McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Subway were invited as participants to test the DCNY. As of July 2021, trial users have created more than 20 million digital yuan wallets and executed over £3.6 billion worth of transactions with the new CBDC.

Read more at: China’s digital yuan is a warning to the world | WIRED UK

Belarus: It's time to bleed Belarus's economy, says former Lukashenko adviser - by Chris Brown

From his vantage next door in Poland, Anatol Kotau looks at his homeland, Belarus, and sees a country on the precipice of collapse.

The Belarusian government's decision to concoct a fake bomb threat and force a Ryanair jet to divert and land in order to arrest a foe of the regime has ignited global outrage. It has also further isolated President Alexander Lukashenko.

Even so, Kotau says the events of this tumultuous week make it no easier to predict when the end of Lukashenko's 27-year rule may come.

Read more at: It's time to bleed Belarus's economy, says former Lukashenko adviser | CBC News

USA: America’s vanishing workforce - by M. Cassella and R. Rainey

Federal and state officials, who spent the last year trying to keep Americans safe in their homes during the pandemic, are suddenly grappling with the opposite problem: how to lure them back to work.

At least 14 states, including North Dakota, Alabama and South Carolina, have moved to cut off enhanced federal jobless benefits that were supposed to last until September. Florida is among roughly 30 states reinstating a requirement that the unemployed prove they are looking for work to receive state benefits. Montana is offering return-to-work bonuses to unemployment recipients who accept a job offer. Amazon, McDonald's and Chipotle are hiking wages, as is Tyson Foods, which will also start allowing more flexible work schedules.

Read more at: America’s vanishing workforce - POLITICO