Middle East - France launches bid to revive stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks

French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault on Wednesday launched efforts to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process by this summer, while ruling out "automatic" recognition of Palestinian statehood.

 Paris will not "automatically" recognise a Palestinian state if a French initiative to host an international conference to revive the peace talks fails, Ayrault said on a visit to Cairo.

His predecessor, Laurent Fabius, had stirred Israeli anger in January by proposing such a conference and saying France would "recognise a Palestinian state" if peace talks failed.

"There is never anything automatic. France will present its initiative to its partners. It will be the first step, there is no pre-requisite," Ayrault said when asked by a journalist in Cairo about Fabius's remarks.

Ayrault is on a two-day visit to Egypt to discuss the French initiative for hosting an international conference "by this summer" to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace talks brokered by Washington that collapsed in April 2014.

"What we want, and that is our commitment, is to resume the negotiation process," he told reporters at a joint news conference with his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry.

The French initiative comes at a time of mounting attacks since the start of October that have left 188 Palestinians and 28 Israelis dead.

Read more: Middle East - France launches bid to revive stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks - France 24

Israeli Poll: Netanyahu Iran plans not supported in Israel on the eve before meeting Obama

On the eve of a critical set of meetings this week between top U.S. and Israeli officials, a new survey finds little backing among the Israeli public for a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel without Washington’s approval. According to the poll, released at a briefing at the Brookings Institution Wednesday, only about one in five Israelis (19%) favor a unilateral strike without U.S. support.

The poll, which also found that more than two-thirds of respondents (68%) believe that such an attack will provoke retaliation by Lebanon’s Hezbollah, is likely to bolster those in the administration of President Barack Obama who hope to persuade Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when the two men meet next week to shelve any plans his security cabinet may have for carrying out such an attack this year.

Netanyahu will be to speak before the annual convention of the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which has been the main domestic lobbying force pushing for a hawkish policy and congressional passage of a series of ever-tougher sanctions against Iran. Thus, AIPAC, presumably with Netanyahu’s encouragement and support, is lobbying for a pending Senate resolution that would take the “containment” option from the table and declare that it is a “vital national interest” of the U.S. to prevent Iran from acquiring a “nuclear weapons capability.”

Two other co-sponsors, John McCain and Lindsey Graham, met with Netanyahu in Israel last week, while three of the four remaining Republican presidential candidates are expected to endorse it when they address AIPAC next week. The resolution so far has 37 co-sponsors, roughly equally divided between Republicans and Democrats, in the 100-seat Senate, but AIPAC is expected to make an all-out push for passage when its 10,000 activists arrive in Washington this weekend.

In this context, the latest poll should strengthen Obama’s hand. In addition to the lack of support in Israel for a unilateral strike that isn’t approved by Washington, it also found that a large majority of Israelis — and especially Israeli Jews — believe that Hezbollah, which is believed to have tens of thousands of rockets targeted on Israel, would join Iran in retaliating against any attack on Tehran.


EU-Digest

Iran says it's cutting oil exports to France, Britain

Iran said Sunday that it was cutting off oil exports to France and Britain in a preemptive strike against European economic sanctions, while top U.S. and British officials warned against a military attack on Iran's disputed nuclear program.

Iran's retaliatory oil ban was the latest instance of high-stakes brinkmanship surrounding Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Iran says its program is solely for peaceful purposes, but the U.S. and many of its allies suspect the goal is to develop weapons.

Speculation has intensified in recent weeks about a possible Israeli or U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites, even as an apparent shadow war rages featuring assassinations of Iranian scientists, sabotage of Iran's nuclear technology and recent bomb plots that targeted Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia and, authorities suspect, in Thailand.

For more: Iran says it's cutting oil exports to France, Britain - latimes.com

Middle East: Obama warns Israel against Iran Strike, Cancels Joint Military Exercises - by Juan Cole

Here are two signs that the Obama administration is attempting to dial down tensions with Iran, sending powerful symbolic signals that Washington does not want to see the crisis with Iran militarized. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will hold talks this week with his Israeli counterparts. He appears to be warning them not to strike out at Iran unilaterally.

The reason for this 2012 time out is that a military strike is inherently unpredictable in its outcome. Politicians don’t like uncertainty, especially in the middle of a hard-fought campaign. If the strikes turned into any kind of war, conventional or uncoventional, that outcome could make Obama look foolhardy and cost him the election.

In addition, the planned joint US-Israeli war games, Austere Challenge 2012, have been cancelled or postponed. The reason for this move has not been made clear by the US. Some are saying that Israel’s budget situation made it impossible to hold the maneuvers now, while others say that Washington became alarmed at what such an exercise might look like at a time of high tensions with Iran in the Straits of Hormuz.

For more: Obama warns Israel against Iran Strike, Cancels Joint Military Exercises

Russia warns against Israeli air strike on Iran - by Alex Spillius

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavov has warned that a military strike on Iran would be a “very serious mistake” with “unpredictable consequences”, after Israel’s president Shimon Peres said that an attack was increasingly likely. Moscow, the closest thing Iran has to a big power ally, is deeply opposed to any military action against the Islamic republic, though Moscow has supported UN Security Council sanctions against Tehran.

"This would be a very serious mistake fraught with unpredictable consequences," said Mr Lavrov, addressing reporters in Moscow. "Military intervention only leads to a multiple rise in casualties and human suffering."A raid on Iran's nuclear facilities would be likely to provoke Tehran into disruptive retaliatory measures in the Gulf that would sever shipping routes and disrupt the flow of oil and gas to export markets.

For more: Russia warns against Israeli air strike on Iran - Telegraph

Palestine fed up with waiting for EU common position - by Andrew Rettman

Palestine's ambassador to the EU has said her leader, Mahmoud Abbas will today (23 September) ask the UN Security Council for full UN membership despite last-minute British, French and US warnings not to go ahead.

Leila Shahid told EUobserver in an interview it remains unclear which EU countries will support the resolution or whether French President Nicolas Sarkozy's new three-step peace plan is an EU position or a purely French idea.

"The Europeans have been taken aback by our decision but we are going ahead because we see they cannot agree with each other ... We can't give up our rights while we wait for the Europeans to be united. And we can't give up our rights because [US] President Obama has a presidential campaign coming up and wants to win votes," she said.


For more: EUobserver.com / Headline News / Palestine fed up with waiting for EU common position

Egypt: Against Geopolitical And Engineering Odds, Plans Emerge To Build A Red Sea Bridge

Post-revolution Egypt is reportedly about to embark on an audacious joint construction project with Saudi Arabia: A bridge over the Red Sea that would link the two country's roads and railways. The bridge is slotted to take the form of a series of suspension spans and causeways on the lines of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge. Although the bridge is not expected to interfere with shipping, nearby Israel and Jordan are livid that construction could potentially hurt their geopolitical position--and the Egyptian public is worried the crossing is a sign of increased Saudi influence.

The proposed 20-mile bridge would be built over the Red Sea at the Straits of Tiran, a series of narrow sea passages between Egypt and Saudi Arabia located near some of the world's best scuba diving. However, the Straits of Tiran are also a highly strategic waterway--both Jordan's lone seaport of Aqaba and Israel's only Red Sea port, Eilat, send all their cargo through the straits. United Nations peacekeepers actively patrol the Straits of Tiran to guarantee freedom of navigation.

Building a successful road/rail bridge between Egypt and Saudi Arabia would have massive economic and geopolitical implications. Saudi Arabia would be able to export oil via rail to African markets--and African ports--by land. Shipping patterns would change massively as a significant portion of Red Sea maritime traffic would disappear. Israel would have to deal with the likelihood of an unfriendly Egypt being able to easily block Red Sea shipping traffic passing through the bridge in the future. Jordan would be pushed firmly into the Saudi economic camp due to a drop in seaport traffic, while Saudi Arabia would gain a massive amount of influence over unstable post-revolution Egypt. For the first time since Israel's declaration of independence in 1948, the Arab states of Africa and Asia would be linked by road and rail. Due to the poor state of relations between Israel and most of the Arab world, rail traffic has not been able to pass through Israel from one Arab state to another and automobile traffic has been severely circumscribed. Meanwhile, the talk in Egyptian newspapers is of Saudi Arabia trying to lead the Egyptian “counterrevolution.”

For more: Against Geopolitical And Engineering Odds, Plans Emerge To Build A Red Sea Bridge | Fast Company

Israel: Not Befitting a Democracy

Israel’s reputation as a vibrant democracy has been seriously tarnished by a new law intended to stifle outspoken critics of its occupation of the West Bank.

The law, approved in a 47-to-38 vote by Parliament, effectively bans any public call for a boycott — economic, cultural or academic — against Israel or its West Bank settlements, making such action a punishable offense.

It would enable Israeli citizens to bring civil suits against people and organizations instigating such boycotts, and subject violators to monetary penalties. Companies and organizations supporting a boycott could be barred from bidding on government contracts. Nonprofit groups could lose tax benefits.


For more: Not Befitting a Democracy - NYTimes.com

European Involvement in Gaza Spells Trouble for Israel - by Soeren Kern

Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero will lead a European Union delegation that is scheduled to visit the Gaza Strip in early September. The EU delegation, which will also include representatives from Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Norway, was invited by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman during a June 24 meeting with his Italian counterpart, Franco Frattini. Lieberman said the idea is for the EU representatives to be able to see Gaza "with their own eyes."

The invitation is part of Lieberman's recent proposal for a complete Israeli disengagement from Gaza. But promoting greater EU involvement in Gaza could backfire on Israel. Zapatero, who leads one of the most anti-Israel governments in Europe, will almost certainly use the visit to call for exerting more international pressure on Israel to completely lift the four-year blockade on Gaza. A high-profile EU visit is also likely to grant international legitimacy to the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas that controls the Gaza Strip. Moreover, European officials will use the trip to call on Israel to make more concessions to the Palestinians in other areas as well.

Separately, France and Spain appear to be laying the political groundwork for the European Union to recognize a Palestinian state — possibly as early as October 2011 — even if negotiations for a permanent settlement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority are not concluded. The initiative is being spearheaded by Kouchner and his Spanish counterpart Miguel Angel Moratinos. Palestinian Authority leaders Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad have repeatedly said they intend to unilaterally declare Palestinian independence before the end of 2011, with or without a peace deal. Abbas and Fayyad have been visiting European capitals in recent months to drum up political and financial support for Palestinian statehood.

For more: European Involvement in Gaza Spells Trouble for Israel :: Hudson New York

Israel-US: Is the honeymoon finally over ?

The United States thwarted an Israeli attempt to play down a diplomatic rift on Sunday by renewing its condemnation of plans to build settler homes in occupied East Jerusalem.

Biden was left fuming last Tuesday after Israel announced plans to build 1,600 settler homes in predominantly Arab East Jerusalem just hours after he had succeeded in persuading the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships to begin indirect talks.
The move was widely interpreted in Washington as a calculated snub designed to humiliate Obama's peacemaking efforts in the Middle East, which have proved unpopular in Israel.
"This was an affront, it was an insult but most importantly it undermined this very fragile effort to bring peace to that region," David Axelrod, Obama's most senior political adviser, told NBC News. "This was not the right way to behave."

For more: U.S. rebuffs Israel's attempt to downplay rift over settlements