The Netherlands: Dutch Center Right Government Of Mark Rutte Collapses after Geert Wilders Pulls the Plug During Austerity Negotiations

Dutch PM Mark Rutte

The party is over - after weeks of discussions on austerity measures, the Dutch prime minister has said government talks have fallen through and new elections are possibly the "next logical step."

The talks were aimed at cutting up to 16 billion euros ($21 billion) from the annual budget. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told reporters he would hold a crisis meeting on Monday to assess the situation.

The talks among Rutte's Liberal Party, his coalition partners the Christian Democrats and the anti-Islam Freedom Party headed by Geert Wilders started in March as the Dutch economy sank into recession. Forecasts showed the 2012 budget deficit would reach 4.6 percent of gross domestic product when the EU deficit ceiling is 3 percent.

Rutte blamed Wilders for the collapse. He said that on Friday a "balanced package" of cuts had been agreed only for Wilders to come back on Saturday after talking to his party colleagues and rejecting the plan.

Last week, ratings agency Fitch warned that the Netherlands might loose its AAA credit score if action to cut the deficit and stop debt from rising was not taken. Only Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands still hold AAA rating in the eurozone. The Dutch government has been one of Germany's strongest supporters for a new pact on fiscal responsibility in the eurozone.

If new elections are held they probably will be held in September or October this year.

EU-Digest

To Keep Wilders happy Dutch foreign aid could be slashed by one billion euros - will Kathleen Ferrier and Ad Koppejan of the CDA go along with this?

Kathleen Ferrier 

It seems that in order to get Geert Wilders "back on board" during the this week's Rutte Government coalition austerity meetings in the Hague, the PM Mark agreed to Wilders demand to slash the Dutch development aid budget by one billion euros, as one of the items to be cut, to bring the Netherlands budget deficit in-line within EU limits.

But when and if the new budget proposals eventually come before the Dutch Parliament for a vote, Kathleen Ferrier and Ad Koppejan, two CDA parliamentary members who have always been critical of their party's cooperation with Geert Wilders PVV,  could very well hold the key to PM Rutte's survival.

Ad Koppejan

Each year, the Netherlands spends 4.6 billion euros on development aid. The one-billion euro cutback amounts to more than 20 percent of the total budget, reducing the Dutch contribution to less than 0.6 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. The United Nations norm is 0.7 percent

Even US billionaire Bill Gates tried to influence the talks on the development cooperation budget. He on his own initiative to express his concern and said he feared that if the Dutch cut the aid budget to developing countries other countries will follow.

To ensure the Dutch budget deficit remains under the European norm of 3 percent, the Dutch government would need to cut another 9.6 billion euros on top of their earlier proposed 18 billion euros.

All by all this means that there is little negotiation flexibility for Dutch PM Mark Rutte. Both Geert Wilder's PVV and the Christian Democrats of Maxime Verhagen could at any time torpedo the coalition based on a variety of issues, including dissident opposition within their own parties. 

Netherlands: defeat by Government coalition in tomorrow's Senate election could mean end Rutte government and sayonara for Verhagen as CDA leader

Tomorrow's Provincial/Senate election will be a test-case on the ability of the present Dutch Government to survive. Given that the government coalition presently doesn't have a majority in the Senate, it will be crucial for it to win this majority if it wants to turn some of their highly controversial budget cutting legislation into law.

The 75 members of the Dutch Senate (Eerste Kamer) in the Dutch Parliament (the Staten Generaal) are elected by the members of the twelve Provincial Councils. These elections are indirect: whereby the voters elect the members of the Provincial Councils, who in turn elect the members of the Senate.

For many observers today it seems as if the Netherlands has lost its political direction. Basically the country is becoming more and more polarized politically - divided right through the middle between left and right wing parties, with Geert Wilders’ controversial and anti-Muslim populist Party keeping the present Mark Rutte Government in the saddle with a razor-thin majority of just one vote.

With only one day to go before the elections the polls are not showing much good news for Dutch PM Mark Rutte, even though his "supporter" Geert Wilders is expected to achieve a smashing victory. Wilders party based on the polls, is shown to go from no seats in the present Senate to 11, and Mark Rutte his own party, the VVD, is expected to gain two seats.

But not all the news is good for Wilders. Given that for the first time the PVV had to actively participate in numerous debates and most of the time came across as not able to be specific about the issues at hand and "waffled" about some of the facts, one can probably expect that the PVV of Wilders has reached the "top of the ladder" in their political climb to power, and over the long-term will not increase significantly in importance.

The Polls also show that the biggest loser in this election among the coalition parties will be the Christian Democratic Party (CDA), which can expect an historic defeat, going from a leadership position in the Senate to below half their present seats. Among the problems the CDA seems to be facing is that their "defacto" leader Maxime Verhagen is unpopular among the voters and many party members, not only due to the internal division within the party about the CDA working with Mr Wilders, but also because Verhagen is seen as "shifty" and speaking out of both sides of his mouth. One political analyst said Verhagen tried to make his Christian Democratic Party swallow the Islamophobia philosophy of Wilders by mixing it with a "Christian sauce". If the Polls are right, a major defeat for the CDA in tomorrow's election probably could mean "sayonara" for Maxime Verhagen .

The bottom line seems to be that if the present political coalition does not succeed in getting a majority in the Dutch Senate elections tomorrow, it could mean the end of the Rutte Government and Maxime Verhagen dropping his claim on the CDA leadership. A very interesting election to say the least.

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Netherlands: Maxime Verhagen, diplomatic, screwed and political strategist could very well become Wilders worst nightmare

Maxime Verhagen, appointed new parliamentary leader of the Christian Democratic Party (CDA), following the worst defeat the party had ever suffered  in Dutch general elections, reducing the CDA party in the country from no 1 to 4th, is a man to be reckoned with..

People who know Verhagen well say this diplomatic, screwed and clever Verhagen could very well become the worst nightmare for Geert Wilders in the new Dutch minority coalition

Verhagen was born in Maastricht. on September 14, 1956. He studied at Leiden University where he obtained an M.A. in history in 1986. For a brief period during his college years, Verhagen affiliated both with leftish-radicalism and the liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). He joined the CDA in 1976. So far during his career he occupied several local and national government positions and was the minister of foreign affairs in the last Balkenende Government

Today around 4,500 party members gathered in Arnhem to decide whether to accept the governing agreements drawn up by CDA leader Maxime Verhagen for this minority coalition with the conservative VVD supported in parliament by Geert Wilders' anti-Islam Freedom Party (PVV). Two agreements were negotiated. One is the coalition agreement between the VVD and the CDA and the other sets out the terms under which the PVV will support the coalition.

This particular CDA congress, which made it possible for the membership to speak out and vote on the validity of the agreements, already can be seen as a democratic bonus point for the CDA and the public at large, in comparison with Geert Wilders "one man show",  full of  populist, nationalistic, anti-religious "sound-bites", without any substance.  While the CDA congress was going on in Arnhem, Wilders was in Berlin where he was invited by former Berlin Christian Democratic Union member René Stadkewitz, who is engaged in forming his own party, Die Freiheit (Freedom). Geert Wilders has been the main inspiration of the German project says René Stadkewitz and was a guest speaker.

During the CDA Arnhem Congress many prominent Christian Democrats and party members argued against any form of cooperation with the Wilders Freedom Party. Among the dissidents, two former prime ministers, and past and present cabinet ministers. When as expected the party comes out in favor of the political deal today, some party members and officials are warning that the remaining strong opposition within the CDA could immediately threaten the stability of the new government which, including the support of Wilders his party, only has a majority of just one seat in parliament.

Contrary, however, to the belief of many political in-and-outsiders, and comments in the Dutch press, this might not be the case.

The  new coalition not only turns Geert Wilders into a "king maker", but also makes Maxime Verhagen a "power player" to be reckoned with. Verhagen, who represents the smallest party within this three party  "political marriage of convenience", can now not only publicly expose the PVV of  Geert Wilders as an unreliable partner, but also put pressure on the inexperienced Mark Rutte and his VVD to comply with some of the wishes of the CDA. If he plays the game right Verhagen could even pull his party the CDA out of the slump they are in now, and make them shine again in the next election.

The most important question, however,  that remains in this scenario, and that time can only tell will be,  whom of the three partners will be the one who eventually steps out of this new political "marriage of convenience" first and becomes the big winner in the next Dutch national election?  Don't be surprised if it turns out to be the CDA of Maxime Verhagen.

EU-Digest

Secretary Clinton will Travel to the Netherlands

EU-Digest

The US Department of State Acting Secretary spokesman Robert Wood announced that at the invitation of Dutch Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will travel to the Netherlands to attend the “International Conference on Afghanistan: a Comprehensive Strategy in a Regional Context” in The Hague on March 31. Building on the achievements of the Conferences held in Bonn, in London and, most recently, in Paris last year, The Hague Ministry will reaffirm the solid and long-term commitment of the international community to supporting the Government of Afghanistan in shaping a better future for Afghanistan and its people. Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke will accompany Secretary Clinton. The ministerial discussion will be co-chaired by the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan Kai Eide, Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs Rangin Dadfar Spanta and Foreign Minister Verhagen.

While in the Netherlands, Secretary Clinton will also have a bilateral meeting with Foreign Minister Verhagen to discuss issues of mutual interest.