When one hears the ensuing speeches of past and present presidents of the European Commission, one is left with the impression EU policy has been a series of successful triumphs, that the Union is champion of the world and that Europe is flourishing.
It seems only the pandemic, global warming and the activity of 'Eurosceptics' or 'populists' attempting to halt the Union's progress, that do not fall in line with this optimistic, complacent self-portrait.
It is enough, however, to look around and see how much more detached from reality this image has become. In fact, we Europeans are now constantly confronted with a series of growing, unresolved problems and successive crises, which we handle only on an ad hoc basis.
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Towards a truly 'European' Union
Showing posts with label Pipe dream. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pipe dream. Show all posts
12/13/20
1/29/18
US: Wall Street Pipe-Dream: Market momentum has never been higher but the risk of a crash is high - Marcus Padley
I wouldn't want to scare you but have you seen a chart of the Dow
Jones or the S&P 500 index recently? The RSI or Relative Strength
Index, a technical indicator used by chartists to measure the speed and
change of price movements, is at record highs.
In the technical world the RSI goes from zero to 100 and if a stock has an RSI below 30 it is described as "oversold", and if the RSI is over 70, it is described as "overbought"
While individual stocks are quite volatile and can regularly appear as oversold and overbought, an index like the S&P 500 index, which represents the average of 500 stock prices, is, by definition, not volatile and rarely becomes either oversold or overbought.
At the moment the RSI for the S&P 500 index is trading at 87.9. The Dow Jones RSI is currently 90.5. That means they are both overbought, which is rare enough, but more significantly, I can't see that they have ever seen an RSI number this high, even in the tech boom, ahead of the 1987 crash, or before the global financial crisis. The momentum behind the US markets has never been higher than now
On top of that, the S&P 500 price earnings ratio is now at 24.87x; that is the highest since the tech boom and higher than pre-GFC. I own a couple of businesses and I have to tell you, if someone wanted to come and pay me 24.87x post tax earnings for either of them I would retire a gazillionaire. Yet this is the average, repeat, average, valuation of $US25.12 trillion, repeat, trillion, dollars worth of US stocks in the S&P 500.
There has rarely been such positive sentiment. Trump-inspired of course although there are a myriad of other factors you could list to justify it in the short term, anything from economic recovery to anticipation of a solid results season which is ongoing in the US.
I have our portfolios almost fully invested at the moment, but I have them on a hair trigger. When I see Wall Street fall a few hundred points in one night I will quietly start selling. This herd could turn nasty at any time and with the top of the S&P 500 long-term trading range 17 per cent below where we are now, we could see a 10 per cent correction in the US markets for absolutely no fundamental reason at all, other than the herd deciding to have a sentiment change for some invisible reason, which is usually because some large fund manager somewhere holds an asset allocation meeting and decides to sell, and the rest follow.
It can happen any day. But don't be too smart for your own good by selling before it happens. These exponential moments only come around once every decade and you can't miss them.
Read more: Market momentum has never been higher but the risk of a crash is high
In the technical world the RSI goes from zero to 100 and if a stock has an RSI below 30 it is described as "oversold", and if the RSI is over 70, it is described as "overbought"
While individual stocks are quite volatile and can regularly appear as oversold and overbought, an index like the S&P 500 index, which represents the average of 500 stock prices, is, by definition, not volatile and rarely becomes either oversold or overbought.
At the moment the RSI for the S&P 500 index is trading at 87.9. The Dow Jones RSI is currently 90.5. That means they are both overbought, which is rare enough, but more significantly, I can't see that they have ever seen an RSI number this high, even in the tech boom, ahead of the 1987 crash, or before the global financial crisis. The momentum behind the US markets has never been higher than now
On top of that, the S&P 500 price earnings ratio is now at 24.87x; that is the highest since the tech boom and higher than pre-GFC. I own a couple of businesses and I have to tell you, if someone wanted to come and pay me 24.87x post tax earnings for either of them I would retire a gazillionaire. Yet this is the average, repeat, average, valuation of $US25.12 trillion, repeat, trillion, dollars worth of US stocks in the S&P 500.
There has rarely been such positive sentiment. Trump-inspired of course although there are a myriad of other factors you could list to justify it in the short term, anything from economic recovery to anticipation of a solid results season which is ongoing in the US.
I have our portfolios almost fully invested at the moment, but I have them on a hair trigger. When I see Wall Street fall a few hundred points in one night I will quietly start selling. This herd could turn nasty at any time and with the top of the S&P 500 long-term trading range 17 per cent below where we are now, we could see a 10 per cent correction in the US markets for absolutely no fundamental reason at all, other than the herd deciding to have a sentiment change for some invisible reason, which is usually because some large fund manager somewhere holds an asset allocation meeting and decides to sell, and the rest follow.
It can happen any day. But don't be too smart for your own good by selling before it happens. These exponential moments only come around once every decade and you can't miss them.
Read more: Market momentum has never been higher but the risk of a crash is high
7/8/15
TTIP: US House of Reps says: "Europe Can't Boycott Israel"
The United States House of Representatives has fast-tracked a bill
regarding a free trade agreement between the US and Europe which would
include a section barring EU countries from any form of commercial
boycott against Israel and Israeli goods.
According to the PNN, Israel’s Ynetnews indicated that two versions of the law had been presented to the House of Representatives and the Senate, clarifying that both versions included the section obligating EU countries to refrain from the boycott of Israeli products.
This section states that any affiliation and cooperation with the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement on the part of EU countries is in violation of the “principle of non-discrimination’ statute in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
According to Ynetnews, the second law did not pass at this stage due to disputes with respect to compensation for businesses in Europe. There was also severe opposition from Obama’s own Democrats, but it is expected that an agreement will be reached between the House of Representatives and the Senate during the coming days.
From the moment that an agreement is reached, a unified document will be presented to the American President, Barack Obama, for a review of the trade agreement as soon as possible. He will then sign the document and it will be put to the vote in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Note EU-Digest: This is a "pipe dream" - US House of Representatives can't tell the EU what to do.
Read more: US House of Reps: Europe Can't Boycott Israel - International Middle East Media Center
According to the PNN, Israel’s Ynetnews indicated that two versions of the law had been presented to the House of Representatives and the Senate, clarifying that both versions included the section obligating EU countries to refrain from the boycott of Israeli products.
This section states that any affiliation and cooperation with the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement on the part of EU countries is in violation of the “principle of non-discrimination’ statute in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
According to Ynetnews, the second law did not pass at this stage due to disputes with respect to compensation for businesses in Europe. There was also severe opposition from Obama’s own Democrats, but it is expected that an agreement will be reached between the House of Representatives and the Senate during the coming days.
From the moment that an agreement is reached, a unified document will be presented to the American President, Barack Obama, for a review of the trade agreement as soon as possible. He will then sign the document and it will be put to the vote in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Note EU-Digest: This is a "pipe dream" - US House of Representatives can't tell the EU what to do.
Read more: US House of Reps: Europe Can't Boycott Israel - International Middle East Media Center
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