Colombia: Presidential race heads to a runoff between a leftist and businessman

Colombian leftist Gustavo Petro won the most votes in the country's presidential election on Sunday but not enough to avoid a runoff.

"What's not in doubt today is change," Petro told cheering supporters in central Bogota.

"Now it's about seeing what we will do with Colombia, what Colombian society wants for its own country."

Read more at: Colombia: Presidential race heads to a runoff between a leftist and businessman | News | DW | 30.05.2022

France: French election 2022: Voting under way in presidential runoff

French voters are casting their ballot in the presidential runoff to choose between centrist incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right politician Marine Le Pen.

Opinion polls suggest that Macron, 44, has a solid lead, but analysts have cautioned that low turnout could sway the outcome in either direction. About 48.7 million citizens are eligible to vote.

Read more at: French election 2022: Voting under way in presidential runoff | News | Al Jazeera

Turkey - Presidential elections: Turkey’s opposition with its new shining democratic star Muharrem Ince might actually have a chance – by Zia Weise

Muharrem Ince wants to bring democracy back to Turkey

Politico reports that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s challengers are gaining momentum ahead of a snap election Sunday — their confidence buoyed by the energetic campaign of Muharrem Ince, a firebrand politician and former physics teacher who has become "dictator" Erdoğan’s foremost rival in the race for Turkey’s presidencyo reports that Turkey’s opposition, long written off as toothless, has rediscovered its bite.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s challengers are gaining momentum ahead of a snap election Sunday — their confidence buoyed by the energetic campaign of Muharrem Ince, a firebrand politician and former physics teacher who has become "dictator" Erdoğan’s foremost rival in the race for Turkey’s presidency

Ince — the nominee of the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP) — has won popularity with boisterous political rhetoric not unlike Erdoğan’s own.

On Saturday, while campaigning on Istanbul’s Asian side, he took the president to task over issues ranging from economic mismanagement to democratic erosion, taunting Erdoğan for rejecting a televised debate.

“We’ll only talk about the economy,” he shouted as he paced back and forth on top of a campaign bus in Üsküdar, a largely conservative neighborhood where Erdoğan owns a house. “Come on television. Aren’t you a world leader? Why won’t you come?

The crowd packing the shorefront square in the scalding June heat cheered, but Ince was not finished: “Look, the people of Üsküdar want you to, Erdoğan. Don’t be afraid, I won’t eat you. Come!” he roared.

Even though the odds, mainly reported by the Erdogan cam,  still seem firmly in Erdoğan’s favor on June 24, it will be the first time Turkey holds simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections. 

Given there is no ballot box fraud, like there was in the last Turkish referendum, a new democratic star might be born in Turkey, who can bring the country back on a normal footing, re; human rights, including freedom of the press, and economic health, also with a more than fair chance for Turkey to finally join the European Union.

Opposition candidates hope to force Erdogan into a runoff on July 8 — and most polls show Erdoğan falling narrowly short of 50 percent in the first round, suggesting they might stand a chance.

Sunday will also mark the day that Turkey’s constitutional reforms come into force, endowing the president with vast executive powers as approved in a controversial 2017 referendum. The opposition candidates have vowed to roll back the changes and return to parliamentary rule.

If there is a second round, Ince will likely be the one to face off against Erdoğan — an unexpected turn of events, as the president and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) had counted on CHP to nominate its mild-mannered leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Kılıçdaroğlu, however, surprised many by choosing Ince, an outspoken MP known for criticizing his own party. It was a shrewd choice for CHP: Unlike most secular politicians, Ince has proven capable of reaching out to voters beyond the party’s base.

Unlike most secular politicians, Ince has proven capable of reaching out to voters beyond the party’s base.

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, fellow at the European Council for Foreign Relations said of him: “But Ince — he’s not elite, he’s a village kid, he knows how to ride a tractor. His mother wears a headscarf. So, he cannot be labelled as an elite hard-line secularist. That makes it difficult for Erdoğan to attack him,”

Erdoğan is still a force to be reckoned with. But in stark contrast to previous elections, the president has run a lackluster campaign plagued by gaffes — from a malfunctioning teleprompter to gifting the opposition its slogan of tamam (“enough”) when he pledged to step down should voters tell him “enough.”

Ince and his fellow opposition candidate Meral Akşener, the nominee of the center-right Iyi Party, are increasingly setting the tone of the campaign. When both Ince and Akşener decided not to appear on TRT state television, Erdoğan followed suit.

When Ince declared he would lift the two-year-old state of emergency if elected, Erdoğan — who had previously insisted that the emergency law was necessary for Turkey’s security — pledged to do so, too.

And while Erdoğan hopes to win over voters with a nationalist agenda, blaming Turkey’s economic problems on Western meddling and emphasizing the threat of terrorism, the opposition has run a campaign marked by a sense of hope.

Ince, who has accused Erdoğan of creating a “society of fear,” has crisscrossed the country promising democracy and rule of law, a stable economy and greater freedoms. At his rallies, he has charmed voters by dancing and cycling on stage.

Recent polls suggest Ince may score between 20 percent and 30 percent of votes in the first round, with Erdoğan between 45 percent and 48 percent (though a few surveys put him at above 50 percent). Akşener’s vote share is projected between 9 percent and 15 percent. 

Though only a few analysts predict a narrow victory for Erdoğan, a second round would see a closely fought race.

Dilara, a 19-year-old first-time voter who attended Ince’s event in Üsküdar, said she sees the CHP candidate as “fresh blood” for the opposition.

“I’ve never seen Üsküdar like this,” she said. “Things are changing. There’s a chance — a small chance — he can win in the second round.”

Like many voters, Dilara counted Turkey’s economic troubles among her chief concerns. Double-digit inflation, rising unemployment and the plummeting lira pose major threats to Erdoğan’s plans for reelection, given his promise of continued growth.

Where the opposition stands a real chance is in the parliamentary election, where they are threatening the AKP’s majority, thanks to an unlikely alliance between secularists, Islamists and nationalists.

The Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) has been left out of the alliance, but Ince has gained popularity among Kurdish voters with his inclusive approach.

Ince has visited HDP’s imprisoned candidate, Selahattin Demirtaş, in jail — a risky undertaking that exposed him to accusations of sympathizing with terrorists — and pledged to support Kurdish-language education.

His overtures are paying off: Last week, a large crowd welcomed him in the Kurdish city Diyarbakır — a rare feat for a lawmaker from CHP, the party responsible for Turkey’s historical repression of Kurds

The Kurdish vote may prove crucial. The AKP will only lose its majority if HDP surpasses the 10 percent threshold to enter parliament. Opposition parties are also vying for the vote of conservative Kurds, who have favored AKP and Erdoğan in the past.

“Kurdish voters are key,” said Baris Yarkadas, a CHP MP for Istanbul. “Whoever the Kurds vote for in the second round will become president.”

With just days remaining before the elections, opposition parties and their supporters are growing bolder. Saturday’s Üsküdar rally resembled a festival, with families picnicking on the grass and vendors hawking cotton candy.

Optimism abounded, as well as a sense of unity. Aside from staunch CHP supporters, many first-time voters and even supporters of other parties were in attendance. Some waved HDP and Iyi Party flags.

“It’s a different atmosphere this time,” said Deniz Uludağ, 39, who was at the rally with her siblings. “I think the government, they’re a little bit afraid.”

EU-Digest

France: Macron Attacked by French Rivals as He Leads in Final Polls - by John Follain

French Presidential Elections: Emmanuel Macron versus Marine Le Pen

Emmanuel Macron’s rivals are training their fire on the centrist newcomer as opinion polls signal his narrow lead may be firming three days before the first round of France’s presidential election.
Nationalist Marine Le Pen and Republican Francois Fillon both attacked the 39-year-old former economy minister saying his ideas are weak and vague.

Support for Macron rose one point to 25 percent, while Le Pen was unchanged at 22 percent, according to a poll by Harris Interactive-France Televisions out on Thursday. Fillon slipped one point to 19 percent, level with Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon. The Bloomberg Composite of first-round polls showed Macron 1.5 points ahead, on 23.9 percent.

The four leading candidates all head into the final hours of campaigning with a chance of qualifying for the run-off on May 7. Surveys show Le Pen would lose the final vote, whoever she faces.

Read more: Macron Attacked by French Rivals as He Leads in Final Polls - Bloomberg

Brazil Election 2014: President Dilma Rousseff Leads In Polls, Could Win Election Without Runof - by Alessandria Masif

Incumbent Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff led a new election poll with 40.6 percent of voter support Saturday, Reuters reported. Her main competitors Aecio Neves and Marina Silva are neck and neck with 24.0 percent and 21.4 percent, respectively.

Rousseff would require either more than 50 percent of the ballots cast or more votes than those given to all other candidates combined to win the election outright Sunday and avoid a runoff against the runner-up Oct. 26, Bloomberg News said.

Whether in the first round or the second round, Rousseff and her center-left Workers’ Party have been forecasted to win Brazil’s presidential election by Citibank analysts in the country who recently revised their prediction, according to Reuters. “We now see the incumbent president, Dilma Rousseff, being re-elected with 67 percent of chances,” they wrote in a note to clients.

In previous polling, Silva had been favored to win, but her numbers have declined in the last month. Meanwhile, Neves’ numbers have remained steady. As the incumbent’s competitors are even in the polls, statistically speaking, it is  unclear who she might face in the event of a runoff.

Although still struggling, Brazil’s economy has improved by some measures since Rousseff won the presidency. Unemployment has reached an all-time low, the minimum wage has increased and a program allowing thousands of doctors to migrate to Brazil from Cuba has been implemented, as BBC News reported.

Read more: Brazil Election 2014: President Dilma Rousseff Leads In Polls, Could Win Election Without Runoff

French Presidential elections: Hollande beats Sarkozy and both heading to French vote runoff

With 75 percent of the vote counted, Hollande had 27.9 percent of ballots cast and Sarkozy 26.7 percent, according to figures released by the Interior Ministry after final polls closed.

Le Pen was in third with 19.2 percent of the vote so far. In fourth place was leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon with 10.8 percent, followed by centrist Francois Bayrou with 9.2 percent and five other candidates with minimal support.

Turnout was also surprisingly high, projected by polling agencies at about 80 percent, despite concern that a campaign lacking a single overarching theme had failed to inspire voters.

EU-Digest