Venezuela - US Relations: Break in US-Venezuela relations raises fresh concerns for oil market - by Tom DiChristopher

• The break in U.S.-Venezuela diplomatic relations raises concerns that Washington will expand sanctions to energy trade.
• Venezuela relies on imports of super light oil from the United States, while U.S. refiners are big purchasers of heavy crude from the Bolivarian Republic.
• Sanctions on Venezuela's energy minister, who holds OPEC's rotating presidency this year, would also create a headache for the 14-nation producer group.

 \

A sudden escalation in long-burning tensions between the United States and Venezuela could have far-reaching ramifications in the oil market, where the Bolivarian Republic remains a significant player despite its plunging output.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced it would back Venezuelan National Assembly leader Juan Guaido, who declared himself the country's interim president earlier in the day. Shortly after President Donald Trump recognized Guaido, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro severed relations with the United States and gave U.S. diplomatic personnel 72 hours to leave the country.

The latest development raises the prospect that the United States will expand sanctions to U.S.-Venezuelan energy trade, a move that would be potentially devastating to Venezuela. The nation has seen its oil production crater in recent years, depriving the socialist republic of its lifeblood energy revenue and exacerbating a devastating economic crisis.

But the consequences could also ripple throughout the broader oil market and complicate OPEC's relationship with the United States.

RBC Capital Markets is already forecasting an additional drop of 300,000 to 500,00 barrels a day from Venezuela in 2019. If the Trump administration pulls the trigger on energy sanctions, those declines could balloon to several hundred thousand more barrels, says Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC.

 

Read more: Break in US-Venezuela relations raises fresh concerns for oil marke

Middle East: Saudi Arabia and U.S. on collision course as Mohammed bin Salman's standing ebbs

Trump has pledged that he won’t whitewash the murder and that the United States will do what’s necessary regarding whoever was involved, though he hasn’t mentioned Prince Mohammed’s name. The time to cash the check has come earlier than Trump expected. 

Saudi Arabia tried last week to lighten the load for the president by announcing the arrests of 21 suspects and the indictment of 15, while the attorney general said he would demand the death penalty for five, though he didn’t provide any names. 

Earlier King Salman fired Ahmed al-Asiri, the deputy intelligence chief, and Saud al-Qahtani, Mohammed’s senior adviser. In so doing the king set a ceiling on how high the punishment could go. But now it seems there will be no choice but to examine his own son’s future. 

According to The Washington Post, Prince Mohammed’s brother Khalid, the Saudi ambassador to Washington, was the one who phoned Khashoggi and encouraged him to go to the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. The prince’s adviser and aide, intelligence man Maher Abdulaziz Mutrib, allegedly led the ring and after the murder phoned Qahtani and asked him to tell the boss that it was mission accomplished. 

Mutrib didn’t explicitly say the boss’ name but Qahtani has only one boss and that’s Prince Mohammed. The Saudi ambassador has strongly denied having any telephone conversation with Khashoggi, and a Post reporter has written that their last meeting came in 2017; afterward they corresponded several times. The top Saudi prosecutor said Thursday that Khashoggi was murdered by a “lethal injection” and that his body was dismembered, with his organs handed to someone outside the consulate for disposal.

Read moire: Saudi Arabia and U.S. on collision course as Mohammed bin Salman's standing ebbs - Middle East News - Haaretz.com

The EU-USA Rupture: “America first” policy goes against EU-US partnership, say EU Parliament MEPs

The US decision to quit key international deals and start a trade war harms EU-US ties; but the EU should not give up on the transatlantic bond, said MEPs on Wednesday.

In a resolution on the state of EU-US relations, approved by 490 votes to 148, with 51 abstentions, MEPs stress that the EU-US relationship is the fundamental guarantor for global stability, but regret that the current US administration has chosen a one-sided “America first” policy, that harms the interests of both the EU and the US and undermines mutual trust.

MEPs seek more clarity on whether the transatlantic bond is still relevant for American partners, as, after the election of US President Trump, MEPs find it difficult to understand new approaches taken by the US on global issues and regional conflicts. “Unilateral moves only weaken the transatlantic partnership,” the resolution says.

MEPs stress that the recent US decision to quit key international agreements, commitments and forums puts at risk common values and the EU-US partnership. They criticise President Trump’s decision to leave the Paris climate agreement, the Iran nuclear deal, and to apply extraterritorial measures on EU companies in Iran.

Read more: “America first” policy goes against EU-US partnership, say MEPs – The European Sting - Critical News

Switzerland's Fate After it Shot Itself in the Foot:- Switzerland’s Crossbow Misfires - Charlemagne

The Swiss have had a reputation for doughty independence since the days of William Tell. He was made to shoot an apple off his son’s head with his crossbow; in revenge, he killed the tyrannical overlord and ignited a successful revolt against the Habsburgs.

This week the bolt struck at the European Union, when the Swiss voted for restrictions on Europe’s much-cherished free movement of people. To surging anti-EU and anti-immigrant parties, the referendum on February 9th was a victory for Switzerland’s “braggart spirit of freedom”, as Friedrich Schiller called it in his play about Tell. The Swiss government and business elite have been transfixed by a decision both opposed. The European establishment is scrambling to respond.

Switzerland is a member neither of the EU nor of the looser European Economic Area (EEA) that includes Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. Nevertheless a web of more than 100 bilateral treaties binds the Swiss tightly into the “four freedoms” of movement underpinning the EU’s single market: of goods, services, people and capital. The repudiation of any one of these puts in question Switzerland’s ability to benefit from the others. And the vote has an impact well beyond the Alps.

read more: Charlemagne: Switzerland’s crossbow | The Economist

TURKEY: Germany, Netherlands block opening new EU policy talks with Turkey

The EU ambassadors of Germany and the Netherlands on Thursday refused to give a green light to the opening of a new negotiation "chapter" or policy area in Turkey's membership talks with the European Union.

At the Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER) of the EU ambassadors, 25 of the 27 countries adopted a common position to open the negotiation chapter on "regional policy and coordination of structural instruments" on June 26, while the German and the Dutch ambassadors opposed it.

"The Netherlands demand more time to discuss the issue at the national parliament where the foreign minister will also attend. It looks like Germany will block the decision," EU sources told the Anadolu Agency.

The EU ambassadors reported that the decision over the chapter on "regional policy and coordination of structural instruments" was suspended until the beginning of next week. It was expected that the decision will be discussed at the meeting of the EU Foreign Ministers this coming Monday in Brussels.

If the chapter is opened it's expected that the Turkish government will give a strong response by cancelling a meeting of the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) set for June 27-28, as well as by recalling Ambassador Selim Yenel, leader of the Permanent Delegation of Turkey to the EU, and suspending all high level meetings.

Read more: Germany, Netherlands block opening new EU policy talks with Turkey | Politics | World Bulletin