The Turkish political scandals of the last few months have many
anticipating the municipal election on March 30. But the risk that
Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP party will lose the election
appears low.
As Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces his worst political
crisis ever, the Turkish people are preparing for municipal elections
on March 30. Ever since the
Gezi Park protests
began last May, demonstrators have taken to the streets on an almost
weekly basis to protest against Erdogan and his ruling AKP party. They
have called for the government's resignation, and some no longer
recognize Erdogan as the country's legitimate leader.
For his critics, the reasons are obvious: one political scandal has
followed the other. A public corruption scandal which came to light on
December 17 got the ball rolling. On that day, a number of high-ranking
politicians, business leaders and sons of political ministers were
arrested and accused of bribery, illegal gold transactions with Iran and
of profiting from illegal construction projects. Erdogan reacted by
forcing out judges, prosecutors and police officers.
In February, the scandals began piling up as a number of recorded phone
calls were published online. In one, former Interior Minister Muammer
Guler, who was replaced in December after his son was detained as part
of the corruption investigation, can allegedly be heard speaking with
his son.
The recording is said to be proof that Guler and his son were involved
in illegal business transactions with Iranian businessman Reza Zerrab,
one of the main suspects of the corruption investigation. The phone call
is said to have taken place on the morning of December 17, but Guler
continues to deny the authenticity of the recording.
The situation became even more precarious when Erdogan was publicly
linked with the corruption scandal. For weeks, alleged wiretapped
conversations between the Turkish leader and his son have been
circulating on
YouTube,
the most controversial surfacing on February 24. In the recording,
Erdogan is said to have urged his son Bilal to hide huge sums of money
on December 17.
After all the scandals surrounding the AKP government, the upcoming
municipal election is seen less as a vote by government critics and more
of a test. The main opposition party CHP has called the vote a race
between "haram" and "halal"; under Islamic law, everything designated
haram is prohibited, while that which is halal is permitted.
Among the general population, the mood is mixed. Former anti-government
Gezi Park protesters appear unsure. "Every government is corrupt, in a
way. Erdogan and his AKP party have brought the Turkish economy so far
forward. I don't know who else to vote for. Maybe I just won't vote,"
said a 35-year-old former protester, speaking with DW.
Emre Gonen, a political scientist at the European Institute at
Istanbul's Bilgi University, believes the AKP has a good chance of
winning the election. Gonen told DW that the scandals will not really
affect the election results, adding that although the AKP could lose
some support the scandals "will not make the party lose the election."
In the last decade, said Gonen, Turkey has benefited from economic,
social and political stability. Over the last 30 years, he said the
country has seen turmoil, attempts at military coups and the presence of
the military in civilian politics. "All this has been gradually solved
within the AKP government period, and that has created a deep sense of
confidence among the voters," he said.
Despite the current domestic
problems, Gonen said the AKP still has at least 40 percent support in
the polls. "Forty percent is an enormous support in any given democracy
today. It will definitely require a dependable alternative political
force to make the AKP go back into the opposition," he said. And in
Turkey, that is currently nowhere in sight.
Read more: Erdogan defies quagmire of scandal in Turkey | Europe | DW.DE | 21.03.2014
