In a recent article for the New York Times, the distinguished
historian of the Conservative Party, Professor Tim Bale, argued that the
“will to power” of the Conservative Party would enable it in the long
term to reconstruct its inner cohesion, currently compromised by the
Brexit debate. Professor Bale’s argument is controversial but, even if
accurate from a historical perspective, it is highly unlikely to be
reflected in the functioning of the Party over the crucial next three
months. Last Wednesday’s ballot of Conservative MPs was at best a
Pyrrhic victory for the Prime Minister. The 117 votes recorded against
her probably if anything understated the degree of opposition to her
proposed texts for the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU and its
accompanying Political Declaration. It is clear she cannot possibly rely
on her Parliamentary Party to steer these proposals through the House
of Commons against the opposition of the Labour Party and others.
But there is no conceivable majority among Conservative MPs for any
other course of action either. A divided and dysfunctional Conservative
Party is generating a divided and dysfunctional Conservative government.
There is no reason at all to believe that this division can be overcome
by any sudden outbreak of unity before 29 March 2019. The true lesson
of the past tumultuous week in British politics is that no Conservative
government is capable of adopting, much less implementing, a coherent
alternative position to that of the United Kingdom’s leaving the EU by
automatic operation of Article 50 on 29 March 2019. If in three months
there is still a Conservative government, then “crashing out” of the EU
without a negotiated withdrawal will have become inevitable. That
important minority in the Conservative Parliamentary party favourable to
this outcome need only persevere in their current obstructionist
tactics to gain their goal through the asymmetric workings of Article
50. Under Article 50 “no deal” emphatically means “no deal.”
There has been much talk in recent days of Parliament’s “taking back
control of Brexit.” Amber Rudd has specified cross-party discussions to
explore the possibility of a “soft Brexit” involving British membership
of the EEA. This particular suggestion seems to rest on a number of
questionable assumptions. The issue of British membership of the EEA is
not one that in any circumstances can be resolved between now and 29
March 2019. If the EEA option is one the UK wishes to pursue after
Brexit, it will need to be painstakingly negotiated with the EU during
the “transition period.” The most that the EU might be willing to accept
in this connection over the next three months would be changes to the
wording of the non-binding Political Declaration, pointing towards
future British membership of the EEA. It is more than doubtful however
whether such marginal changes would be sufficient to guarantee or even
make more likely a Parliamentary majority for the Prime Minister’s
“deal.” Some Labour MPs either favour or could accept an EEA-like
arrangement, but the majority do not, including Jeremy Corbyn and Sir
Keir Starmer, both of whom for different reasons would have difficulties
in accepting the Freedom of Movement at the heart of the EEA. Most
importantly, if the EU were to be persuaded at this late stage to make
changes to the Political Declaration, it could only be at the pressing
and well-grounded request of the sitting British government. No present
or future present Conservative government could ever accept favourable
references in the Political Declaration to the EEA and Freedom of
Movement. Most pressure on the government from the Conservative Party
during the Brexit negotiations has come from precisely the opposite
direction, seeking to reduce rather than maintain ties with the EU after
Brexit. The EEA can provide no solution to the Conservative
government’s present impasse.
Note EU-Digest: Re: Brexit: Britain and Britain's political establishment seem to be "up
the creek without a paddle", and the so-called Brexiteers are not to be
heard from or seen. A wise lesson for European citizens not to vote for
Populist, Nationalist or Ultra Right parties in local or the upcoming
May 2019 EU parliamentary elections. It's all empty rhetoric what these
parties are producing. Just look at Britain (Brexit) and the USA (Donald
Trump) to underscore that point.
Read more at: Brexit: A national government or “no deal” | The Federal Trust
