Time Magazine: Nationalism Rising in Serbia? - by DEJAN ANASTASIJEVIC

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Nationalism Rising in Serbia? - by DEJAN ANASTASIJEVIC

While the presidency of Serbia is a largely ceremonial role, electing the President has become a barometer of popular — and thus political — sentiment. In the first round of voting on Jan. 20, ultra-nationalist candidate Tomislav Nikolic won the most votes, 1.6 million or 39.4% of the ballots cast. The incumbent President, pro-Western Boris Tadic, came in second with 35.4% or 1.4 million votes. The contest is now headed for a Feb. 3 runoff.Even if Nikolic wins the runoff, he will not be able to change Serbian politics dramatically or immediately. Kostunica and his moderate nationalism are likely to hold sway even if he and Tadic decide to call it quits. Kostunica's parliamentary bloc, while numerically small, is an essential ally to any larger party seeking to form a ruling coalition. Meanwhile, parliamentary elections are not scheduled until January 2011. "The government would probably survive, at least for a while, even with Nikolic as President", Svilanovic explains. "But Serbia's road towards the E.U. membership would certainly become much more complicated at best."

The Guardian: Europe in no rush to join US with rate or tax cuts - by Jan Strupczewski and Brian Love

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Europe in no rush to join US with rate or tax cuts - by Jan Strupczewski and Brian Love

Europe in no rush to join US with rate or tax cuts - by Jan Strupczewski and Brian Love

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe's economy was an "anchor of stability in the world" and added in an interview on German TV: "There are no signs of a recession in Germany, and that's also the case for Europe." Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia gave a similar message to the European Parliament. "We don't need to imitate all the decisions other economies can adopt. We need to rely on our own framework that is much more efficient," he said. "The U.S. economy has serious problems with fundamentals. We haven't," he added.

ECOFIN: Dutch Fin Min: No Risk Of Econ Recession In Europe

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Dutch Finance Minister Bos: "No Risk Of Economic Recession In Europe"

"There is no risk that Europe's economy will experience a recession this year, Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos said Tuesday. And speaking to reporters ahead of a meeting of finance ministers from the 27 members of the European Union, Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders concurred, but added there is a risk of a slowdown. Reynders added that the E.U. finance ministers, known as Ecofin, will monitor developments in global financial markets "very closely." European and Asian stock markets plummeted Monday, and Asian markets lost further ground Tuesday. But Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the Euro Group of finance ministers from the 15 E.U. members that use the euro, repeated his view that the euro-zone economy is in better shape that its U.S. counterpart, and added that "it won't happen that we in Europe" have to resort to launching fiscal stimulus packages, as the U.S. administration did last week. Asked if E.U. economies would enter recession, Bos said "no, no." He added that the Dutch economy was well positioned to deal with the turmoil in financial markets, which he attributed to "uncertainty" about the outlook for the U.S. economy. "The fundamentals are very good," Bos said. "We can take a blow and still be healthy."

Editorial Note EU-Digest: "Mr. Wouter Bos probably is right, based on the actual situation. Euro area's GDP in 2007 will be about $11.9 trillion(according to IMF estimates). U.S. imports from the Euro area have totaled $245 billion in 2007 through November; let's say $267 billion for the full year. So the Euro area's exports to the U.S. account for just two and a quarter percent of its GDP. How much of a drop in US imports (Europe's exports) might we have in a U.S. recession? Last recession US imports fell by 5.5 percent. If with the fall of the dollar, US imports really drop, by say ten percent. That would cut 0.2 percent off Europe's growth rate, plus multiplier effects if any. That by itself does not send Europe into recession. As for the echo effect, U.S. exports to the Euro area amount to about 1.3 percent of US GDP. So by taking 1.3 percent of a 0.2 percent drop and you get a trivially small number, less than three thousandths of one percent. So forget an echo recession in Europe. That is if we base it only on what is happening in the US."

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia: Latvia expels diplomat of Russian Federation Embassy

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Latvia expels diplomat of Russian Federation Embassy

Viktor Kalyuzhniy, Ambassador of the Russian Federation, was summoned before Edgars Skuja, Acting Secretary of State of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Acting Secretary of State issued the Ambassador with a note stating that, on the basis of information provided by appropriate state security authorities, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established that one of the diplomatic staff of the Embassy of the Russian Federation has been engaged in activities incompatible with his status as diplomat and that his residence in Latvia poses a threat to state security. In accordance with Article 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, the Minister of Foreign Affairs has declared the diplomat persona non grata.

Businessweek: Euro chief urges calm amid US troubles - Economic situation in Europe uncoupled from the situation in the US - by Aoife White

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Euro chief urges calm amid US troubles - Economic situation in Europe uncoupled from the situation in the US - by Aoife White

Euro nations see no immediate need to react to the growing threat of a U.S. slowdown that sent stock markets plunging Monday, the head of the group of 15 euro finance ministers said after they met for talks. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said the economic situation in Europe was "clearly different from, better than" the that of the U.S. and did not require something similar to President Bush's multibillion-dollar program to stimulate the economy. "We should not overreact to events on the stock exchanges today, we need to look at the next few days at what is rational about this and what is irrational, what is part of a process of correction and what is people overreacting," he said.Juncker insisted the glass was half-full, saying that in spite of rising energy costs and rocketing inflation "it would be a mistake to fall victim to excessive pessimism." Although euro area growth would likely be less than the EU executive forecast in November, the "fundamentals are sound," jobless rates are still falling, and inflation should drop back by the end of the year, he said. "We feel comfortable with the current economic situation," Juncker told reporters. "Consumers in Europe have no reason to lose confidence, the economic situation in Europe seems to be uncoupled from the situation in the U.S."

Business Spectator - World Economy: Wait for the day of no hope - by Robert Gottliebsen

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World Economy: Wait for the day of no hope - by Robert Gottliebsen

The big stock market fall in Europe tells us that monoline insurance is as big, if not bigger, than sub-prime. Worse still, it will eat into the heart of European banks and institutions who were handed huge surplus money piles by the middle eastern countries that did not want to invest in US dollars directly. Accordingly, the European banks invested much of this money in 'AAA' American securities, as determined by the rating agencies, which relied on monoline insurance company guarantees that are now not worth the paper they were written on. I suspect European banks will represent a significant slice of the $US2,300 billion in the now non-guaranteed loans, many of which will be bad. In the UK, again encouraged by the big middle eastern deposits, banks and institutions have financed an incredible splurge in office building without tenants locked in. These buildings will cause huge losses, so the banks face a double blow.

Fear of the unknown is engulfing the world. The US sub-prime crisis has been joined by the global monoline insurance disaster which may be even bigger. The two are, of course, linked, because monoline insurers guaranteed sub-prime debt. Worse still we have the head central banker in the world’s biggest economy with his head firmly in the sand. Ben Bernanke made the foolish claim over the weekend that there would be no US recession, and did not even mention the monoline insurance disaster. It would have been far more reassuring to the market if he had told the truth and admitted a recession was a likelihood and recognized the impact and dangers of the twin disasters.

FinFact - Irish Public Service employees awarded zero increase in benchmarking report

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Irish Public Service employees awarded zero increase in benchmarking report

Furious Irish unions accused the Government of declaring a war on their members' wages. But an unrepentant Finance Minister Brian Cowen insisted the benchmarking body had done its job and the issue would now go to the forthcoming national wage negotiations. Opposition parties claimed Mr Cowen and his Cabinet colleagues would be getting deferred pay increases of up to 14pc, under a report comparing top salaries in the two sectors. Union leaders are aware national deals normally give the same rises to both public and private workers.

FT: EU's engagement with Pakistan depends on fair polls says Solana

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Mr Musharraf held talks in Brussels with Javier Solana, the EU’s high representative for foreign policy, who said he had stressed the EU’s desire that Pakistan should “move forward on a path of reform and the rule of law”. With European countries contributing more than half of the 41,700-strong international force conducting military operations against Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan, the EU has a strong interest in seeing a decline of political violence and unrest in neighbouring Pakistan.EU's engagement with Pakistan depends on fair polls says Solana

The level of the European Union's engagement with Pakistan depends on the holding of free, fair and secure elections there next month, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said Monday. "Our message is clear. It is that the elections have to be fair, free and secure, which is also very important," Solana said after lunch talks in Brussels with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf. "Our reaction on cooperation and the level of engagement will be in view of the result of the process," he added. He did not give any details as to what that cooperation may entail.The EU is Pakistan’s largest foreign trading partner, with annual trade worth euro 6.25bn, and Mr Musharraf said he had raised the issue of easier access for Pakistan to EU markets. Later on his European trip, Mr Musharraf is due to meet Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, and Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister, as well as to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos.

EU Business; EU slams Israel's 'collective punishment' in Gaza

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EU slams Israel's 'collective punishment' in Gaza

EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero Waldner hit out at Israel Monday, slamming its blockade of the strife-torn Gaza Strip as "collective punishment". "I am against this collective punishment of the people of Gaza. I urge the Israeli authorities to restart fuel supplies and open the crossings for the passage of humanitarian and commercial supplies," she said in a statement. Gaza's sole power plant shut down overnight for want of fuel as a punishing four-day Israeli blockade on the Hamas-run territory threatened to spark a humanitarian crisis.Ferrero-Waldner, while also condemning rocket attacks on Israeli territory, said the decision to close all border crossings into Gaza as well as to stop the provision of fuel "will exacerbate an already dire humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip."

AFP: World stock markets plunge as global recession fears grow

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World stock markets plunge as global recession fears grow

Stocks plummeted across the world on Monday amid fears of a global recession, with markets in Europe suffering their biggest one-day losses since the September 11th attacks on the United States. Dealers said a major new plan by President George W. Bush to prevent a US recession was not enough to offset the stream of bad news from banks due to the crisis in the American housing market. "People aren't buying the US bail-out story and that feeling has been exacerbated by the weakness overnight in the Asian markets," said Richard Hunter, equities analyst at broker Hargreaves Lansdown in London. "The other thing we have seen today is a lack of buying interest -- people are battening down the hatches while they see what happens in the US," he said.

The Guardian/The Observer: The Netherlands: Violence fear over Islam film - by Jason Burke

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The Netherlands: Violence fear over Islam film - by Jason Burke

The Dutch government is bracing itself for violent protests following the scheduled broadcast this week of a provocative anti-Muslim film by a radical right-wing politician who has threatened to broadcast images of the Koran being torn up and otherwise desecrated. Cabinet ministers and officials, fearing a repetition of the crisis sparked by the publication of cartoons of Muhammad in a Danish newspaper two years ago, have held a series of crisis meetings and ordered counter-terrorist services to draw up security plans. Dutch nationals overseas have been asked to register with their embassies and local mayors in the Netherlands have been put on standby.

From her self-imposed exile in Washington, Hirsi Ali last week criticized the new film as 'provocation' and called on the major Dutch political parties to restart a debate on immigration that has split Dutch society in recent years, rather than leave the field to extremists.Job Cohen, the left-wing mayor of Amsterdam, echoed Hirsi Ali's words and called for a debate 'so that the moderates can make themselves heard'.

Note EU-Digest: Hirsi Ali is to be complimented for her stand on this issue. Freedom of expression includes the right to offend, but certainly not the right to provoke violence. If Wilders suggests that tearing up the Koran (or the Bible for that matter) would be a good idea, it could probably pass as freedom of expression. On the other hand if he says that the Koran (Bible) must be torn up, or used as toilet paper, he is overstepping the boundaries of freedom of expression and decency and indirectly inciting violence as a result of that statement. Many people feel that Mr. Geert Wilders, the maker of the film, should be taken into court if his film results in violence or death. The same as would apply to anyone who would kill Mr. Wilders as a result of his film. The tactics applied by Mr. Geert Wilders, a populist-conservative politician, are very similar to those that were applied by the Nazis against the Jews. These kind of tactics do not belong in todays Europe.

Financial Times: Brown asks IMF, World Bank to give India bigger role

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Brown asks IMF, World Bank to give India bigger role

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Monday asked the World Bank, IMF and the rich nations' G-8 club to revamp their structure to reflect India's rising prowess in the global economy. "I support changes to the World Bank, the IMF and G-8 that reflect the rise of India and rise of Asia," he said at a breakfast meeting with Indian and British industry leaders here. He said: "We can and must do more to make our global institutions more representative," and added that the IMF should work with the same independence given to central banks. Note EU-Digest: Mr. Brown also gave strong support for an Indian seat on the UN Security Council.

Chron.com: Sarkozy hardly the 'model' of savoir-faire - by Froma Harrop

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The French have long tolerated adulterers, liars and hypocrites in their politics. A simpleton is another matter, and President Nicolas Sarkozy's public frolic with a former model and singer of heavy-breathing songs does not speak of emotional complexity. A divorced man of 52, Sarkozy says all this is a private matter. Fine, but then why take the 39-year-old Carla Bruni on state visits to socially conservative countries, where such unmarried coupledom is frowned upon? "That's France for you," a male friend reasoned. Actually, it's not. The French like order. Their president's need to push his love life onto unwilling audiences is causing international friction. And since the damage is so unnecessary, you wonder whether Sarkozy hasn't got a few screws loose.

Greenchemistry: The European Union bans certain biofuel sources in draft law

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The European Union bans certain biofuel sources in draft law

Amidst renewed fears over the impact of biofuels on the environment, which a recent Royal Society report warned could “do more harm than good,” the European Union has issued a draft law that would propose a ban on the imports of bio fuels derived from crops grown on certain types of land — such as forests, wetlands and grasslands. It would also require them to deliver a — as yet undetermined — “minimum level of greenhouse gas savings.” Palm oil is cited by many as a particularly insidious source of biofuel because of the unacceptable environmental and societal costs it incurs.

IHT: French regulator sees 'partial decoupling' of US and EU economies - by Matthew Saltmarsh

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French regulator sees 'partial decoupling' of US and EU economies - by Matthew Saltmarsh

While there is increasing evidence that the euro-area economy is slowing, most of the factors that are contributing to the bleak outlook in the United States are not present on the Continent, according to the governor of the Bank of France, Christian Noyer. In an interview, Noyer also said he did not expect any "strong shocks" from French banks as they report their 2007 earnings, despite the constant stream of major losses by banks in the United States. Noyer was at pains to stress that consumers and financial institutions in France and the rest of the euro zone appeared relatively insulated from the effects of the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market across the Atlantic. "Historically, there was some correlation between the U.S. and the EU economic cycles," Noyer said. "Now it seems there could be at least a partial decoupling. That's not to say that we're immune from a weakening U.S. economy, but there are a series of factors that should dampen the effect."

Energy Bulletin: The false US economy versus nature’s expansion-contraction cycle - by Shepherd bliss

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The false US economy versus nature’s expansion-contraction cycle - by Shepherd bliss

The government’s so-called “economic stimulus” is a false solution, attempting to further prop up the false economy. Giving people more money to spend—many of whom are already spending beyond their means—will not solve what is becoming our most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression. Trying to avoid the economic fall seems futile. A better approach would be to roll with the punches and figure out how to even thrive during this transition from a no-longer to a not-yet. Those who do can even benefit from the changing reality. The US economy has expanded for the last seven years. It’s time to contract, in spite of the wailing of economists. Economic growth slowed to barely 1% in the final three months of 2007--a big drop from 4.9% in the third quarter. Growth may now be dipping into negative territory,

RNW - Ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic wins Serbian election

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Ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic wins Serbian election

Preliminary results from Serbia's presidential elections indicate a victory for the ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic. The partial results give Mr Nikolic 39.4 percent against 35.4 percent for the incumbent Boris Tadic. As neither candidate won a majority, a second round of voting will be held in two weeks time. The seven other candidates did not win enough votes to play a role in the election. A record number of Serbians cast their ballot in today's vote. Around 60 percent of the 6.7 million eligible voters went to the poll, the highest percentage since the 2000 democratic revolution. The vote is seen as crucial for the Balkan state's future. Both candidates oppose independence for Kosovo but Mr Nikolic favours closer ties with Russia and is opposed to NATO, the US and the European Union while Mr Tadic wants Serbia to join the EU.

Note EU-Digest: this spells big troubles for the stability in the Balkan region.

Guardian: Boeing 777: Safety fears over crash jet's alarm failure - by Dan Milmo and Sam Jones

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Boeing 777: Safety fears over crash jet's alarm failure - by Dan Milmo and Sam Jones

The pilots of the British Airways Boeing 777 that crash landed at Heathrow on Thursday received no warning that the aircraft was losing power because of a problem with the aircraft's alarm systems, a source has told the Guardian. Because there was no signal from the Boeing 777's automatic warning system, the pilots did not realize anything was wrong until they approached the runway and noticed the plane was losing speed more rapidly than normal. The plane "fell out of the sky" just 10ft from the ground after stalling as it came in to land.

The fact that the pilots, Captain Peter Burkill and senior first officer, John Coward, did not receive an automated warning of the drop in engine power will cause concern about the safety of systems on the 777 of which more than 600 are in service. Although all commercial airplanes have programmed "inhibitions" on certain warnings so that the crew are not distracted by unnecessary alarms during the crucial takeoff and landing procedures, the alarm should have been triggered when the engines failed.The Guardian has also learned that a key instrument, the engine pressure ratio gauge, which tells the crew how much power is available, had failed. The pilots tried to coax more power from the 777, but it did not respond, according to an aviation source. Realising every ounce of lift would be needed to nurse the plane over Heathrow's perimeter fence, Coward, who was at the controls, dropped the nose to maintain speed. As he approached the fence, he lifted the nose, wringing the last reserves of energy from the plane. Then the aircraft narrowly missed a guidance beacon before stalling around 10ft from the ground. "It just fell out of the sky from a few feet," said the source. "It was the skill of the crew that kept those 136 people alive."

Daily Times - Tough questions await Musharraf in Europe

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Tough questions await Musharraf in Europe

President Pervez Musharraf heads off on a four-country trip to Europe this weekend where he is expected to face tough questions over his rule while shoring up international support. Former foreign secretary Tanvir Ahmed Khan expected Musharraf to seek to impress on Europeans that Pakistan’s best hope of stability rested with him retaining power. “He’s trying to establish his credentials with key Western powers with the same old message: that he’s indispensable, they don’t have a better friend than him, without him the war on terror would unravel and Pakistan’s economic progress would collapse,” Khan said. Musharraf is due to hold talks with European Union and Belgian leaders in Brussels, meet French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris and then attend the World Economic Forum in Switzerland before heading to London for talks with Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Enerpub: Bulgaria signs deal on new pipeline to Europe

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Bulgaria signs deal on new pipeline to Europe

Bulgaria has signed a deal with Moscow to join a major new pipeline project to bring Russian natural gas to Europe on the second day of a visit that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to lobby hard for the deal. The pipeline would deal a blow to European hopes of reducing dependence on Russia as an energy source amid fears in Brussels that Moscow is acquiring too much economic leverage over EU members. Speaking after the signing in Sofia, Putin said the deal will benefit European consumers by assuring new energy supplies. "I want to particularly stress that the construction of this new infrastructure does not mean a decrease in our cooperation with other transit countries," he said. "The creation of new routes ensures security, increases stability, and creates new transit capabilities for the growing supplies of energy resources to European consumers."