EurasiaNet - Cyprus Vote: Big Ramifications for Turkey's EU Bid and NATO's Operational Capacity

Northern Cyprus - Nicosia presently divided

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Cyprus Vote: Big Ramifications for Turkey's EU Bid and NATO's Operational Capacity

The future of Turkey’s European Union bid could hinge on the February 17 presidential election in Cyprus. The prospect of a new Greek Cypriot leadership may offer the last chance for uniting the divided island, analysts say. Permanent division, experts add, would create a lasting source of political tension that not only could prevent Turkey’s EU accession, but also hamper the EU’s and NATO’s strategic capabilities. "The results of the election will be important, if we are going to have a move forward," says Philippos Savvides, Greek Cypriot political analyst based in Athens. Brussels is set to review progress on Turkey’s membership bid in 2009, leaving this year as the only window of opportunity to make headway on the Cyprus issue, Savvides says. "It will be a mess if we don’t have a resolution."

Cyprus has been split since 1974, when Turkey invaded the island’s northern part to safeguard its Turkish Cypriot community, which comprised some 20 percent of the total population. With United Nations peacekeepers monitoring a ceasefire line separating the island’s Greek and Turkish parts, the Cyprus issue has made little progress toward reunification over the decades. There was some hope for a resolution in 2004, when Turkey signed on to the United Nations-brokered Annan plan, which called for Ankara to withdraw its troops, and Cyprus to be reunited. The new Cyprus would have been comprised of two confederal states, one Greek and one Turkish, with a loose central government.

Note EU-Digest: The UN plan for reunification could be back on the table after hardliner Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos was eliminated in the first round of a presidential election on Sunday, meaning a surprise run-off between two candidates who both want talks on re-uniting the island. The vote is key to efforts to bring back together the war-divided Mediterranean island and to Turkey's European Union aspirations. Analysts said Papadopoulos's elimination signaled Greek Cypriots are ready to return to the negotiation table. Right wing backed Ioannis Kassoulides and Communist Demetris Christofias have already pledged a more conciliatory approach to estranged Turkish Cypriots, who have lived separately since a Turkish invasion in 1974 triggered by a brief Greek-inspired coup. With all the vote counted, Kassoulides had 33.5 percent, Christofias 33.3 percent and Papadopoulos only 31.8 percent. The run-off will be on February 24.