US Pres. elections - Can Obama Really Win The US White Vote? - by Steve Sailer
despite the rapid growth of the minority population, U.S. elections are currently still dominated by whites. They cast 79% of the votes in 2004 and things will remain that way for several decades. That makes predicting whether Obama would win in the fall even murkier than a typical Presidential election when two white men are running against each other. In contrast, if I was trying to forecast a Kenyan election, I'd just tally up the numbers of Kikuyus, Kalenjins, Luos (whose candidate/warlord, Raila Odinga, claims, probably falsely, to be Obama's first cousin), and the other three dozen tribes, see which tribe is allied with which tribe at the moment, toss in a guess of how many votes the ruling party will steal, and, presto, there's your winner.
American identity politics is more complicated. There is still a majority tribe, one that is so accustomed to being dominant that it doesn't (yet) think of itself as a tribe that competes with other tribes. Instead, elements within the white tribe compete primarily against each other. White behavior is particularly difficult to model, because whites strive endlessly for status against other whites, constantly scanning for novel ways to claw their way to the top over each other.
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