Iran and Israel build up their bluffing game - by Gerard Baker
There has been a certain choreographed quality to events in the skies over the eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf in the last month. This week Iran fired a volley of medium-range missiles into the skies over the Gulf, demonstrating its capacity to hit targets in Israel. A month ago, Israeli warplanes carried out large and fearsome warplane exercises over the Mediterranean that looked like a practice run for a bombing raid on Iranian nuclear facilities. But appearances can be deceptive. In Iran's case at least part of the deception has already been exposed - to mildly comical effect. It turns out that the picture of the launch of four Iranian missiles that appeared on the front pages of newspapers around the world yesterday was itself a fake.
The simple reality is that, for all its sabre-rattling, Israel cannot carry out an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities on its own. An Israeli strike would require the active co-operation of the US. Israeli F15 and F16 warplanes would not only have to fly and be refuelled in Iraqi airspace - controlled by the Americans - but the whole operation would require logistical support from US bases on the ground in Iraq. Support helicopters would need to be based in Iraq and rescue teams needed to evacuate any downed Israeli pilots would have to operate inside Iraq. In short this would be in effect a joint US-Israeli mission. The catch is that Washington has no intention of joining in any attack any time soon.
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