Haberanal/EU-Digest: Would Turkey be in the ‘winners' club’ or ‘losers' pit’ by 2023? - by Mehmet Öğütçü

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Would Turkey be in the ‘winners' club’ or ‘losers' pit’ by 2023? - by Mehmet Öğütçü

If I could look into my crystal ball to predict who the winners and losers of the global system would be by 2023 (the centenary year marking the founding of the Turkish Republic), do not expect me to give a rosy picture of the future for today’s 27-state European Union (EU). The current recession will no doubt ease by the end of this year, though the deep-seated systemic problems will remain, and companies will begin taking on workers again, signaling the end of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. This setback may herald a new era in the global system fundamentally altering the political and economic balance of power. The post-crisis era also looks certain to shake the established institutions, rules and players redefining a gradually emerging ‘new world order’ that is likely to reduce the influence and power of super-majors such as the US, Japan and the EU to the benefit of BRIC (Brazil, India and China) nations.

Note EU-Digest "This lengthy article by Mr.Mehmet Öğütçü unfortunately shows he has become a supporter of the British Euro sceptics. For those who are not familiar with the British Euro sceptics: they are a misguided group of people who don't believe in the European Union and have the illusion that Britain can go at it alone. They also rather sit on the lap of Uncle Sam (with all the recent economic negative consequences) than support the EU, the hand that feeds them through trade. Mr.Mehmet Öğütçü also seems to be an articulate Turkish nationalist (nothing wrong with that), who has some difficulties in identifying the difference between fiction and reality when it comes to Turkish membership in the EU.

Rest assured Mr. Öğütçü, the majority of EU member states leaders are convinced Turkey will eventually become a member of the EU. Obviously only after it meets all the requirements for membership, and more important, if it still wants to join. But one has to be realistic, Turkey, with its more than 70 million people, complex economic infrastructure and social fabric, can not be compared with the small, poor, corrupt, and functionally disorganized Eastern European nations which were recently admitted to the EU. These small states regardless of their incredible problems are far easier manageable than a "giant" country like Turkey would be if it came into the Union before it put its own house in order. This assessment might seem unfair when looking at the issue from a Turkish perspective, but it certainly is a realistic one."