The Myth of "Decoupling" and the Chinese Consumer - by Charles Hugh Smith

The "China decoupling" story holds that as China's households grow wealthier then China will no longer need export markets in the E.U. and the U.S. The story is appealing but the facts don't support it.

A single statistic completely undermines the "China will decouple from the U.S. because Chinese domestic demand will absorb all its production capacity" story: The proportion of the China's GDP contributed by the household sector (wages, salaries and consumption) peaked at 56 percent in 1983 and has since dropped to 36 percent—roughly half the size of the consumer economy in the U.S. That means that China's households are receiving a smaller piece of the pie as China's GDP grows, even the annual average wages of workers in urban areas of China increased from 12,422 yuan ($1,832) in 2002 to 29,229 yuan ($4,311) in 2008.

Another factor is that Chinese households are prodigious savers: China boasts a savings rate of 38%, fully ten times that of the U.S. But Chinese savers have few choices on where to invest their money: they can either leave it in a savings account which draws 2.25%, less than the inflation rate of 3.1%, or invest in real estate or domestic stocks.

Those proclaiming the coming decoupling and rise of the Chinese consumer neatly glide over the fact that investment, including foreign direct investment (FDI), accounts for 44% of China's economy, a higher level than Japan or South Korea ever reached in their modernization drives. This is an economy that is exquisitely dependent on massive inflows of capital to sustain its growth; the entire household sector is a mere 80% of direct investment.

For more: The Myth of "Decoupling" and the Chinese Consumer | Benzinga.com