While Friday's US employment data was certainly better than a "sharp stick in the eye" the reality is that the economy is currently struggling along at a very anemic pace. Without employment growing fast enough to offset labor pool overhang we are unlikely to reduce the real unemployment problem that persist in the U.S. This bodes poorly for the consumer, the economy and ultimately the markets as this weakness leaves all three very susceptible to unexpected system shocks. While we certainly hope for the best - "hope" is not an investment strategy that we can use.
In order for the US to return to the long term trend of employment by 2020 we will need to be creating nearly 400,000 jobs each month. This of course is a far cry from 120,000 that we saw this month. With the employment to population ratio remaining at levels not seen since 1984 the real pressure on the economy remains focused on the consumer.
There are two very negative ramifications of this large and "available" labor pool. The first is that the longer an individual remains unemployed the degradation in job skills weighs on future employment potential and income. The second, and most importantly, is that with a high level of competition for existing jobs; wages remain under significant downward pressure.
Business owners are highly aware of the employment and business climate, and regardless of the ranting and raving about the "cash on the sidelines", businesses are not in the business of charity. Business owners are milking the current employment climate for all it is worth in order to maintain profitability. With high competition levels for existing jobs, and the impeding threat of job loss for those working, employers can work employees longer hours at less pay. This is great for profit margins and workers won't complain because there are plenty of individuals that take their job and will take it for less pay.
For more: The Real Employment Situation Report - Seeking Alpha
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