" Europe is an economic giant, a political dwarf, and a military worm" - Mark Eyskens: by Craig Willy

The above words were pronounced by Belgium’s then-Foreign Minister on the eve of 1991 Gulf War to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation. The often-cited bon mot, two decades on, still rings true. But while militarily the European Union is likely remain marginal in the years to come, there are indications it will become something like a “political giant”.

The trouble with the EU (and before that the Communities) – the idea that it could have a coherent policy or even be a world power – has always been that it is effectively a “vetocracy”. A system where decisions of any significance must be taken unanimously means reform and good government are almost impossible. If the status quo suits just one representative’s constituents enough, then no change is possible. This is the single most important reason for the EU’s impotence in world affairs.But the EU, as we’ve seen, will in many areas likely become as “federal-majoritarian” as the United States of America, minus (very significantly) the budget.

The European Superstate may even, in fact, function better than the very minoritarian and viciously partisan American political system of today.

National vetoes and the impulse to collaborate with American schemes will mean that official so-called “European foreign policy” and defense will likely remain marginal (notwithstanding the large number of, mostly relatively small, EU civil and military operations abroad). However, these days, foreign policy and world power are less and less the stuff of diplomatic chancelleries and hard military action. (Can it be said that the U.S. “benefited” from the untold trillions spent and other non-financial costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the two greatest manifestations of American military power?)

Instead today, as economic, environmental and security interdependence between countries steadily increases, foreign policy is increasingly an extension of domestic policy, what in German is called Weltinnenpolitik. In English, we talk less elegantly of “intermestic” issues and there is overlap with the concept of “global governance”. As examples, here are some of the questions the world powers of today are fighting over: What kind of world will we live in? A world of massive energy waste? Of environmental unsustainability? Of banksterism run amok? Of international lawlessness? Of war? Or will we live in a world Europeans (and likely others too) would want to live in? These questions will not be determined primarily by hard military power and conquest.

Instead, here, the EU may well actually be able to become a genuine actor. Within Europe, the rules for financial regulation and climate, for example, will be based on qualified majority voting. Outside Europe, trade and aid policy, the prime methods for incentivizing and fighting for one’s vision of the world, will also be subject to the new majoritarian rules. The EU may then, for the first time, be able to actually fulfill the call that French and German philosophers Jürgen Habermas and Jacques Derrida made in May 2003:

Read more: Europa 2024 (ii): Will the new Europe become a world power? | Craig Willy | EU affairs writer