Maybe, just maybe, the worst of the euro crisis is over. Business and consumer confidence is rising across the Continent, sovereign bond yields are falling, and capital flight from its weakest economies is easing. Talk of an imminent breakup of the currency union has all but disappeared. Even Greece, whose debt hemorrhage plunged the euro zone into crisis three years ago, is starting to meet deficit targets agreed to with its lenders.
“We are now back in a normal situation from a financial viewpoint,” European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said at a Jan. 10 news conference. “We spoke a lot about contagion when things go poorly, but I believe there is a positive contagion when things go well. That’s also what is in play now.” His comments lifted the euro to $1.32, its biggest gain in four months against the dollar.
But the indicators on Europe’s real economy are, if anything, worse than ever. Factory and services output contracted in December for a 17th consecutive month, and unemployment is at 11.8 percent and rising in many countries. The ECB lowered its growth forecast last month and now predicts the euro-zone economy will shrink 0.3 percent this year. “The worst is over, but what we still have to do is difficult,” says Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker.
Read more: As Europe’s Currency Crisis Fades, Growth Worsens - Businessweek
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