Iran Nuclear Deal: Trump’s confusing attempt to torpedo the Iran deal, explained - by Zeeshan Aleem

President Donald Trump is expected to announce next week that he will “decertify” the Iran nuclear deal, arguing that the agreement is not in the national security interest of the US. 

That doesn’t mean the deal will immediately collapse. Instead, the future fate of the landmark pact will essentially be punted to Congress, triggering a 60-day review process. Lawmakers will need to decide whether to reimpose the crippling sanctions on Iran that were suspended in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear activities in a deal struck in 2015.

If Congress decides to put sanctions back in place, that will effectively kill the US’s participation in the Iran deal. The big question will be how the other countries that signed the deal — the UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia — react to the American withdrawal from the pact. 

The early signs are that the Trump administration would be left isolated on the world stage. The other nations say the deal is working — as does the UN watchdog tasked with monitoring Iran’s compliance — and that they are not interested in pulling out of it and rejoining the US in slapping on new sanctions.

When news of Trump’s plan to decertify the deal broke yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters, “It is very important to preserve it in its current form and of course the participation of the United States will be a very significant factor in this regard.” 

President Donald Trump may believe he can use his self-professed skills as a dealmaker to negotiate better terms. For now, though, there’s no reason to think he’s right.

During an event at the Atlantic Council in September, David O’Sullivan, the European Union’s ambassador to the US, said that Europe could in fact reciprocate US sanctions on European companies for doing business with Iran. 

“I’ve no doubt that if this scenario materializes, the European Union will act to protect the legitimate interests of our companies,” he said.

And of course Iran could argue that it’s no longer bound by the terms of the agreement. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said in September that walking away from the deal is an “option” if the US withdraws. Such a move by Tehran would allow Iran to ramp up its nuclear program all over again — this time largely free of economic sanctions from any country but the US.

Analysts say new US sanctions would have far less bite since Washington would be imposing them on its own. The White House could also alienate key allies by pulling out of a deal those countries believe is working. 

“We’re talking about a major rift in the trans-Atlantic alliance,” said Ilan Goldenberg, a Middle East expert at the Center for a New American Security and former senior Pentagon official. “Some countries and some companies will walk away from Iran because of fear of losing the US market; others will call the US’s bluff and challenge us. What you’ll end up with is a leaky, messy sanctions regime.”

Whether Congress will choose to reimpose sanctions is an open question.

Republicans only need a 51-vote majority in order to slap them back on Iran, but enough GOP lawmakers have said they’re uncertain about what to do with Iran that sanctions may be difficult or impossible to pass.

As the Washington Post reports, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is not eager to add even more to the legislative calendar as his party struggles to pass a single major piece of legislation in 2017.

The Europeans are thinking of creative ways to protect themselves from US sanctions should they start up again. One unnamed Western diplomat told the Washington Post that Europeans are looking into 1990s-era regulations designed to shield European companies and individuals from sanctions that would punish them from doing business with Iran.

Without Europe totally on board, the sanctions simply won’t be as effective.

Note EU-Digest: Bottom-Line: If you believe Donald Trump is a good negotiator, you certainly will also believe Santa Claus is for real.

Read more: Trump’s confusing attempt to torpedo the Iran deal, explained - Vox