British
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been in the job a matter of hours, but
he is already short on time to deal with not one, but two full-blown
international crises—and they may yet collide into each other.
On September 5, two days after Parliament returns to work following a six-week summer recess, an Iranian-imposed deadline for European powers to relieve an American effort to strangle its economy is set to expire, and no one knows what happens then.
Britain’s choice is a difficult one. It prizes its “special relationship”
with Washington, largely centered on intelligence-sharing and defense,
but as a member of the EU, it is much more closely intertwined with
European economies. Throughout the presidency of Donald Trump, London
has also showed itself far more willing to strike out against the U.S.
position, aligning itself with Brussels, Paris, and Berlin on a range of
foreign-policy questions from climate change to tariffs—and, crucially,
the Iranian nuclear deal.
If Britain were to leave the EU without a deal, an event that critics fear could lead to chaos the country is unprepared for, its options then become more limited. Because such a scenario likely means its relations with the Continent have suffered, the U.K. may feel it has little choice but to move quickly toward the U.S. as it seeks to strike a quick trade deal to protect its economy.
Tensions over Iran have already risen sharply following Trump’s May 2018 decision to withdraw from a nuclear deal—signed by the United States and Iran, as well as Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China—that saw international sanctions eased in return for a dramatic scaling back of Iran’s nuclear operation. The U.S. decision to reimpose its own sanctions since then has left the three European countries scrambling to find a way to keep the deal alive, but with little success.
Two events may change this calculation: an escalation in Iranian hostility or a breakdown in relations with Europe. The British government has so far sought to separate Brexit from all other questions of strategic national interest. Boris Johnson may soon find that’s no longer possible.
Read more at: Two Crises, One Existential Dilemma for Boris Johnson - The Atlantic
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On September 5, two days after Parliament returns to work following a six-week summer recess, an Iranian-imposed deadline for European powers to relieve an American effort to strangle its economy is set to expire, and no one knows what happens then.
This
September pinch point, which could see a rapid escalation in tensions
between Tehran and Washington, will come just as Britain enters a
two-month race to meet its latest Brexit deadline—the country is set to
leave the European Union on October 31, but no agreement setting the
terms of its withdrawal has yet been approved by London. Johnson has promised to take the United Kingdom out of the EU by then, deal or no deal.
The
two crises pose enormous, intermingled questions for both Johnson and
his country, exposing the raw dilemma at the heart of Brexit: Will the
U.K. remain principally a European power, aligned with its continental
neighbors on trade, foreign policy, and defense, or will it feel
compelled to move much closer to the U.S. in the aftermath of an
acrimonious breakup? In effect, will Britain be able to quarantine
Brexit and the resultant ill will among its European neighbors from
other foreign-policy issues?
If Britain were to leave the EU without a deal, an event that critics fear could lead to chaos the country is unprepared for, its options then become more limited. Because such a scenario likely means its relations with the Continent have suffered, the U.K. may feel it has little choice but to move quickly toward the U.S. as it seeks to strike a quick trade deal to protect its economy.
Tensions over Iran have already risen sharply following Trump’s May 2018 decision to withdraw from a nuclear deal—signed by the United States and Iran, as well as Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China—that saw international sanctions eased in return for a dramatic scaling back of Iran’s nuclear operation. The U.S. decision to reimpose its own sanctions since then has left the three European countries scrambling to find a way to keep the deal alive, but with little success.
Two events may change this calculation: an escalation in Iranian hostility or a breakdown in relations with Europe. The British government has so far sought to separate Brexit from all other questions of strategic national interest. Boris Johnson may soon find that’s no longer possible.
Read more at: Two Crises, One Existential Dilemma for Boris Johnson - The Atlantic
The Digest Group
Almere-Digest
EU-Digest
Insure-Digest
Turkish-Digest
For additional information, including advertising rates - e-mail:Freeplanet@protonmail.com
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