The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the atrocities that have accompanied it, have naturally caused deep anxiety throughout Europe. NATO’s new Strategic Concept for the next decade calls Russia “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”
But before devoting huge additional resources to confront Russia, it would be a good idea to take a level-headed look at Russian military resources and the nature and extent of the Russian military threat to NATO. We should not forget how, after the USSR’s collapse, Western intelligence agencies concluded that their Cold War estimates of Soviet military power were greatly exaggerated (just as, it’s worth noting, were Western predictions of an easy Russian victory over Ukraine this year). After all, U.S. and Western resources are not unlimited, and devoting them to defend against Russia means limiting them elsewhere.
In terms of military spending, the United States and NATO are overwhelmingly superior to Russia. In 2021, Russia spent around $66 billion on its military. NATO’s European members alone spent more than four times that. The United States spent more than eleven times that much ($801 billion), though of course it has huge military commitments outside Europe. Moreover, European governments, including Germany, have promised steep increases in military spending, though the details are still far from clear.
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The real military balance between Russia and NATO - Responsible Statecraft
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