EU - Iran US conflict: Distrusting Both Iran and U.S., Europe Urges ‘Maximum Restraint’ - by Steven Erlanger

Speaking of the attacks this week on fuel tankers in the Gulf of Oman, President Trump said flatly on Friday that “Iran did do it.” European governments may also think that Iran is probably to blame, but their distrust of the Trump administration and its hawkish policy toward Tehran have led them to measure their words, and call for de-escalation and “maximum restraint.”

Mindful of Washington’s exaggerations and outright misrepresentations of intelligence leading up to the Iraq war, European leaders are asking the Trump administration for hard evidence. The last thing they want is to be asked to support another American war in the Middle East that would be highly unpopular with voters.

Europeans are no fans of the Iranian government or its policies in the Middle East, but they are concerned by what they see as the Trump administration’s policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran — thus their use of maximum restraint. Many critics believe Mr. Trump is succeeding only in creating maximum pressure among hard-line factions in Iran to respond with carefully calibrated attacks that send a message, like those against tankers in a vital passageway for global oil supplies.

Germany wants a careful investigation of the attacks, insisting that “a spiral of escalation must be avoided.”

The European Union, in the words of the spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic, has “said repeatedly that the region doesn’t need further escalation, it doesn’t need further destabilization, it doesn’t need further tension.

Read more: Distrusting Both Iran and U.S., Europe Urges ‘Maximum Restraint’ - The New York Times

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China - US Relations: Tariffs China: Blame U.S. for escalation of trade war, China says - by Christopher Bodeen

China issued a report Sunday blaming the United States for the countries’ trade dispute and said it won’t back down on “major issues of principle,” but offered no clarification about what additional steps it might take to up the ante.

The report from the Cabinet spokesman’s office said that China has kept its word throughout 11 rounds of talks and will honor its commitments if a trade agreement is reached. It accused the U.S. of backtracking three times over the course of the talks by introducing new tariffs and other conditions beyond what was agreed on.

“But the more the U.S. government is offered, the more it wants,” it said, accusing America’s negotiators of “resorting to intimidation and coercion.”

Read more: Tariffs China: Blame U.S. for escalation of trade war, China says

Trump Tariffs: Escalation of trade tensions as India now imposes retaliatory tariffs on US

India imposes retaliatory tariffs, escalating U.S. trade tensions

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Middle East - Syria: Trump’s strikes on Syria risk retaliation, escalation in a war he wants to avoid - by Paul Sonne

Last week, President Trump promised to withdraw from Syria. This week, he opened a new front against Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad that risks drawing the United States into a broader conflict there.

By attacking Assad late Friday, the Trump administration says it sought to warn the Syrian leader against what Western nations said was his use of illegal chemical warfare agents, following the gassing of civilians near Damascus last weekend.

The administration calculated that the need to send a signal to Assad over chemical weapons outweighed the possibility of provoking a response from his allies, Russia or Iran, on the battlefield in Syria, elsewhere in the Middle East or even in cyberspace.

The risk, analysts say, is that the United States would then end up in a cycle of escalation that entangles the American military more deeply in the Syrian conflict than the administration intended.

Read more: Trump’s strikes on Syria risk retaliation, escalation in a war he wants to avoid - The Washington Post

China -US Relations: Trade war escalates as China says it will impose tariffs on 128 U.S. exports, including pork and fruit - by Damian Paletta

The Chinese government plans to immediately impose tariffs on 128 U.S. products, including pork and certain fruits, a direct response to President Trump’s recent moves to pursue numerous trade restrictions against Beijing.

If U.S. goods become more expensive in China, Chinese buyers could opt to purchase products from Europe, South America or elsewhere, though White House officials have routinely discounted the likelihood of this.

Beijing’s move could force Trump to decide whether to follow through on expansive trade restrictions he had hoped would crack down on China even if Beijing is now threatening to harm U.S. companies that rely on Asian markets for buyers.

A Twitter post from the “People’s Daily,” an English-language news organization controlled by the Chinese government, said Sunday that “China imposes tariffs on 128 items of imports from the U.S. including pork and fruit products starting Monday as a countermeasure in response to a previous U.S. move to slap tariffs on steel and aluminum imports: Ministry of Finance.”

Read More: Trade war escalates as China says it will impose tariffs on 128 U.S. exports, including pork and fruit

Turkish-Dutch Relations Falter After Minister’s Visit Blocked, Another Escorted to Germany - WSJ

A dispute between Turkey and the Netherlands escalated sharply as the Dutch blocked a campaign visit by the Turkish foreign minister and had another Turkish minister escorted to Germany.

Read more: Turkish-Dutch Relations Falter After Minister’s Visit Blocked, Another Escorted to Germany WSJ

Ukraine: West's Sanctions Against Russia Remain Relatively Porous - by Marcus Walker and Laurence Norman

The U.S. and Europe are stepping up their sanctions against Russia, but the restrictions remain partial and porous compared with other economic embargoes recently imposed by the West.

Bans on buying new bonds of Russian state-owned banks, or on selling some engineering technology to Russia's oil industry, are expected to hurt parts of Russia's economy. But the measures don't touch Russia's main business with the West: the sale of natural gas and oil to Europe. 

That makes the sanctions regime fundamentally different from the sweeping Western embargo that has blocked Iran from selling any oil or gas to its traditional customers in the European Union. 

"The EU's core business with Russia has been left untouched," said Stefan Lehne, a scholar at Carnegie Europe, a nonpartisan Brussels think tank. 

Mr. Lehne said the EU is likely to adopt further sanctions against Russia, including tighter financial-sector restrictions, but that energy supplies won't be touched. "If you really restrict Russian energy exports, then you hurt the EU as much as Russia." 

EU leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel have said the sanctions can be scaled back if Moscow becomes more cooperative in the Ukraine conflict—or scaled up if it continues to support pro-Russia rebels there. 

But few in Europe can imagine a boycott of Russian gas, which flowed West continuously even at the height of Cold War enmity. Many countries across the Continent have no way of replacing Russian gas quickly or affordably.

A sanctions regime that targets secondary economic ties such as banking, specialized engineering and weapons highlights the limits of the EU's room for maneuver. 

Despite doubts about the ability of the new measures to change the Kremlin's mind, experience shows international sanctions tend to escalate as the affected country finds ways to evade them. That leads to efforts to plug loopholes and tighten them. And in this particular conflict, political and military events are intensifying rather than defusing the underlying conflict. 

"The Ukrainian military is showing greater capability, so Russia has to step back or double down" in supporting the rebels, said Robert Kahn, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. "So far, the signs are it's likely to double down." 

Sanctions can be effective when accompanied by a workable political strategy to resolve a conflict through negotiations, but sometimes the EU adopts sanctions "out of a sense that something must be done," said Mr. Lehne at Carnegie Europe. 

"It's possible that this will be one of the effective cases, but it's not guaranteed," he said.

Read more: West's Sanctions Against Russia Remain Relatively Porous - WSJ

Ukraine Crises: U.S. may move warship into Black Sea

The U.S. is likely to move a warship into the Black Sea and send a small team of soldiers to Europe as part of NATO’s effort to bolster allies in Eastern Europe who are worried about Russia’s military annexation of Crimea.

The official says military commanders are considering ways to bolster America’s military presence in the region. But the official said the U.S. is encouraging allies to contribute more aircraft to the Baltic air patrol mission and beef up military support to Poland — steps the United States has taken.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel says this country has “to be prepared to deal with any contingency and all options.”

NATO foreign ministers on Tuesday ordered an end to civilian and military cooperation with Russia.

Read more: U.S. may move warship into Black Sea | Navy Times | navytimes.com

Syria: Attacking Syria will only deepen the mess

Syria is in such a mess that it is tough to think of solutions. Sectarian and regional interests are in such conflict that external meddling can only make the mess worse. With the Russians, Iran and Lebanon-based powerful militia, Hezbollah, on one side, allied to the Assad regime, there is ample ground to expect a wider conflagration if the US mounts an attack.

The global community, including India, must do its best to try and dissuade the Americans from pursuing such a course. With crude oil prices estimated to hit $125-per-barrel levels in case of such an attack, it also makes economic sense to prevent it.

The utopian option out in Syria would be de-escalation and national dialogue. Pending that, it is also clear the world cannot sit back and watch as images of children apparently gassed to death emerge from Syria.

Punitive measures, shorn of hurling bombs and missiles, should be applied to groups and entities indulging in mass crimes against humanity.

Attacking Syria will only deepen the mess - Economic Times

Middle East: US drone strikes in Syria ‘dangerous escalation’

The introduction of drone strikes by the United States inside Syria would mark a dangerous escalation in the Syria unrest, says Rick Rozoff, manager of the Stop NATO organization.

Rozoff told the U.S. Desk that if deadly U.S drone strikes are expanded to Syria, it would be "the most disturbing manifestation of the international drone warfare policy.”

Drone attacks inside Syria would be “an act of utter provocation,” he said

“If the U.S. directly engage in military strikes, which is what drone attacks are, means that the U.S. has openly intervened and become belligerent in the war on Syria and it could lead to an escalation of tensions not only in the region but globally.”

Rozoff said while it is difficult to ascertain exactly who will be the target of U.S. drone attacks at this point, “government targets including military units” would probably be high on the list.  

Read more: PressTV - US drone strikes in Syria ‘dangerous escalation’