US Economy: 5 biggest risks that can derail the US economy - by Bryan Borzykowski

If there's one thing we can take away from this week's stock market dive that sent the Dow down more than 866 points and 5 percent in five days, it's that American's are feeling a little jittery. After five years of economic uncertainty, it finally feels as if things are back on track, yet many people are wondering whether or not the terrible times are truly in the past.

On the surface, everything seems to be humming along nicely. The S&P 500 is up about 30 percent over the last two years, the U.S. jobless rate is at a six-year low, housing starts have climbed 9 percent year-to-date, and other economic indicators are pointing to good times ahead.

"It's been pretty good so far," said Sheryl King, Roubini Global Economics' senior director of research. She thinks America's GDP will see about 3 percent growth in 2015, but only if some of the risks that people are concerned about don't materialize and derail the recovery.

A number of things could trip growth up.

1. Global slowdown, 2. Rising long-term rates, 3. Lower oil and lower inflation 4. Rising inflation,     5. Falling stock market 

Read more: 5 biggest risks that can derail the U.S. economy

Middle East: Grim prospects for the Middle East in 2013 - by Patrick Seale

The coming year is unlikely to be a happy one for the tormented Middle East. Although some dictators have fallen and many Arabs are now demanding their rights, there is no escaping the fact that the balance sheet of the past two years remains profoundly negative. In no country of the Arab Spring is there as yet any convincing sign of peace and reconciliation, of good governance, of a better standard of living for ordinary people, of an enhanced sense of citizenship, let alone of genuine democracy.

Some countries have suffered more than others. In Syria, the cries and tears of the martyred population — the tens of thousands killed, the hundreds of thousands wounded, maimed, starving and displaced — weigh heavily on the conscience of the world. Yet there is no end to the agony. To quote UN and Arab League envoy Lakhdar Al Brahimi, Syria is in danger of descending into hell, if it is not there already.

Individual Arab countries are not the only casualties. The Arab political order has been dealt massive blows, and remains in great disarray. What does this mean? It means that the ability of Arab states to work effectively together has been greatly reduced. They find it difficult to affirm their independence from predatory foreign powers or defend Arab causes in the international arena. The Arab voice today carries little weight.

Some Arab countries have acquired great wealth, but it is no exaggeration to say that the Arabs as a whole — seen as a bloc of like-minded people sharing a language, a history and a system of beliefs — are not in much better shape than they were more than 60 years ago when Arab Palestine was lost to the Zionists in 1947-48, and when the Arab world was comprehensively defeated by Israel in 1967.

wo major Arab countries, Syria and Iraq — each of whom once had a critical role in defending Arab interests — today face fragmentation and dismemberment, even the possible loss of their national identity. We are witnessing nothing less than the redrawing of the map which created these states out of Ottoman provinces after the First World War.

Another curse from which the Arabs are suffering is the flare up of hate between Sunnis and Shiites. These brothers in Islam behave today like irreconcilable opponents. Nothing has weakened the Arabs more than this fraternal feud, and nothing has brought greater joy to their enemies.

When, in 2003, the US disbanded the Iraqi army and outlawed the Baath party — the two key institutions of the Iraqi state — it brought down the state itself, triggering a Sunni-Shiite civil war in which hundreds of thousands died and millions were displaced. Two results of the conflict were particularly disastrous: first, the poison of sectarian conflict spread throughout the Arab region.

Secondly, Iraq, under Shiite leadership, lost its traditional role of serving as a counterweight to Iran. The resulting upset in the balance of power aroused fears among some Gulf Arabs of Iranian domination.

Egypt, the traditional leader and most populous of all Arab countries, lives under the shadow of bankruptcy. Its economy is on its knees. Tourism and foreign investment have dried up. Fertility rates, which should have been controlled from the 1950s onwards, were allowed to soar.

Over-population has robbed much of the population of any reasonable prospect of a better life. Dependence on American aid, and on American-controlled institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, has greatly restricted Egypt’s ability to pursue an independent foreign policy in the Arab interest.

Read more: Grim prospects for the Middle East in 2013 | GulfNews.com

American Dream ending? Fewer think they'll become millionaires in US economic doom

Americans are becoming far less optimistic about their chances of making it big - with just one in five convinced they will become a millionaire in the next ten years.

With economic gloom filtering into the American Dream mentality, almost two thirds of people in the U.S. said they felt it was extremely difficult to become a millionaire in the current climate.

While cynical Brits are even less enthusiastic about their futures, the U.S. figure lags behind that of Australia, where almost a third of citizens believe they will strike it rich, a survey has found.

American Dream ending? Fewer think they'll become millionaires in US economic doom | Mail Online

EU enters decisive period for economic plan - by Andrew Willis

The next few months will be decisive for the European Union's future economic health, with the bloc set to agree a new 10-year economic plan in a bid to leave the recent recession behind, and chart a fresh course towards steady growth and job creation.

Decade-high unemployment, an ageing EU population and soaring budget deficits form the backdrop for those involved in drafting the important road map.

Memory of the EU's current economic plan - the Lisbon Strategy, due to expire in 2010 - is also likely to influence EU leaders as they prepare to discuss its successor at a number of European summits over the next six months under the Spanish EU presidency.

For the complete report: EUobserver / EU enters decisive period for economic plan

guardian.co.uk: German investor morale surges to near two-yr high - by Krista Hughes

For the complete report from the guardian.co.uk click on this link

German investor morale surges to near two-yr high- by Krista Hughes

The Mannheim-based ZEW economic think tank said on Tuesday its monthly poll of economic sentiment rose to 13.0 from -3.5 in March, showing its first positive reading since July 2007, which was just before the global credit crunch erupted. April's rise took the headline index to its highest level since June 2007, shooting well past the 1.5 consensus forecast and adding to signs that the worst of the downturn may be over in Europe's biggest economy. In another sign of economic recovery, the head of engineering sector association VDMA told Reuters last week that Germany's plant and equipment industry, the country's largest industrial employer, is seeing early signs of stabilization.

CSM: 10 ways the new economy will look different - by Peter Grier

For the complete report fromthe csmonitor.com click on this link

10 ways the new economy will look different - by Peter Grier

This is a given: the BC economy (the one we had Before the Crash) had too much of many important things. Too much debt. Too much consumption. Too much speculation in complicated financial instruments by bankers blind to the bubble inflating around them. That's not coming back. Housing prices are not going to rebound 20 percent soon. The Dow is not getting back to 14,000 this decade, and maybe not the next. Circuit City, Linens 'n Things, Lehman Brothers – they're all extinct, like Studebaker. "We are never going back to the way we were," says Paco Underhill, chief executive officer of the retail consulting firm Envirosell. You don't have to be a futurist to foresee that in the coming new economy just about everyone in the private sector, from consumers to financiers, will be looking to get the most they can for their dollars. You can sum the situation up in two words: "value rules."

"The era of 'bling' is coming to a close."