The ‘Great Repression’ is here and it will make past downturns look tame, economist says

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The ‘Great Repression’ is here and it will make past downturns look tame, economist says - MarketWatch

USA: Looking Into the Crystal Ball: 22 Predictions for 2018

1. The artificial intelligence (AI) hype bubble will burst.

2. Face-to-face interactions will increase.

3. More beauty consumers will move to Indie brands.

4. Mental health house calls will become more common.

5. The money will be in the 35-plus demographic.

6. More people will strive for simplicity.

7. "Big Data" will become "Big Fresh Data."

8. Trust will be tech's biggest hurdle.

9. Artificial intelligence (AI) will drive smart video meetings.

10. The divide between machine learning (ML) haves and have nots will grow.

11. Cybersecurity will be table stakes for executive competency.

12. Ownership will decrease.

13. The subscription model will become standard for all industries.

14. Enterprises will think smaller.

15. Corporate America will increase its role in our political, legal and social lives.

16. Consumers will expect more voice controls.

17. Reach and scalability will continue to remain vexing problems.

18. Data will take the gossip out of the real estate industry.

19. Machine learning will begin to transform business at every scale.

20. Expect to see even more data-driven hires and acquisitions.

21. The tech industry will continue its transformation into an experience business.

22. Wellness will play an even larger role across all industries.

Details: read more click here: Looking Into the Crystal Ball: 22 Predict

Europe: How Markets View European Unity Vs. Disintegration - by Erik Norland

EU-US: It is high time for a divorce

Opposing forces championing integration versus disintegration are assailing Europe. In the past two years, both sides have scored important victories. Britain's Brexit, Spain's Catalonian independence referendum and the entry of the nationalist Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party to the German parliament, or Bundestag, were victories for proponents of lesser European unity. The electoral defeat of far-right forces in the Netherlands and the victory of Emmanuel Macron in France were celebrated by those favoring the guiding principle of an "ever closer union."

Whatever one thinks of Brexit, the prospects for deeper European integration and the legitimacy of the various national independence movements, the currency markets' view is unambiguous: they strongly favor deeper political integration:

• When exit polls mistakenly called the Brexit referendum for the "Remain" voters, the British pound (GBP) rallied from 1.45 to 1.50 versus the U.S. dollar (USD) before crashing, first to 1.32 and later to as low as 1.18 versus the USD when the "Leave" victory became apparent. The euro fell 3% versus the USD on the day of the Brexit referendum and fell nearly 10% versus the USD within six months.
• Euro rallied 2% versus the USD in the week after Dutch voters dashed the hopes of Geert Wilder's eurosceptic Party for Freedom.
• Euro soared more than 10% to a two-and-a-half-year high in the weeks after Macron won the French presidential election on a platform advocating domestic economic reform and deeper European integration.
• September's German election results halted this advance after it became apparent that not only did AfD enter the Bundestag, as expected, but that Angela Merkel underperformed the polls by about 5-6% and would have to create an unwieldy coalition with the enthusiastically pro-European Greens and the Free Democrats, who oppose deeper economic integration.
• Catalonia's independence referendum led to a 1% one-day decline in the euro, further offsetting gains from the Macron victory. Ninety percent of Catalans voted to leave Spain in the referendum on October 1 that the Spanish state considers illegal and attempted to repress with force, leading to nearly 900 injuries.

Note EU-Digest: The obvious question therefore is: "if deeper unification of Europe is good for business in general , why has the Trump Administration been supporting Brexit and other nationalist movements in Europe, directly undermining European Unity?"

When will the European Union, in particular the EU Commission, EU-Parliament and member states wake up to the fact that a strong united Europe, with an independent foreign policy is not in the interest of the US, whatever they might say to the contrary.

You also do not have to be an Einstein to recognize that the US Foreign Policy has usually been based on a"divide and conquer" doctrine, with the Trump Administration now openly championing this doctrine. 

Obviously a fractured EU. would give the US a wide open playing field in Europe, with very little resistance from individual countries, to oppose major US policy decisions in a variety of areas, which could have a negative effect on the well-being of European citizens.

Yes indeed EU citizens, the motto: "United we Stand, Divided we Fall" is more important today than ever before. 

Read more: Europe: How Markets View Unity Vs. Disintegration | Seeking Alpha

Markets responding well to France’s new leader - by Neil Unmack

France is enjoying a good crisis. The country’s funding costs are at record lows. But this may not last if new president François Hollande’s policies disappoint markets.

The election of France’s first socialist president in over two decades could have given markets an excuse to pounce. The opposite has happened. As the Greek situation has worsened, French 10-year yields have fallen to their lowest levels since the euro crisis began. Ten-year spreads over Bunds fell roughly 30 basis points this past week, to 110 basis points. Compare that to the peak of the crisis in November last year, when rising contagion drove spreads to a record 180 basis points, suggesting that France could at some point be hit by the contagion wave.

Markets so far have seen the best side of Mr. Hollande. He used the recent euro zone summit to verbally promote a badly needed growth agenda for the single currency, and he has avoided escalating tensions with Germany. In reality he has few concrete results to show for his efforts, but at the very least he has broadened the policy debate.

Read more: Markets responding well to France’s new leader - The Globe and Mail