Ukraine Russian invasion: Ukraine hits Russia back where It hurts

Russian warship was seriously damaged in an overnight Ukrainian naval drone attack on Russia's Black Sea navy base at Novorossiysk, the first time the Ukrainian navy has projected its power so far from the country's shores.

The port, which handles two per cent of the world's oil supply and also exports grain, temporarily halted civilian ship movement before resuming normal operations, according to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium which operates an oil terminal there.

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Russian Ukraine invasion: Russia establishes new ground forces formation to support Ukraine operation, UK says

This unit, called the 3rd Army Corps, is based out of the city of Mulino, east of Russia's capital Moscow, the British Defence Ministry said in its daily intelligence bulletin on Twitter.

Read more at: Russia establishes new ground forces formation to support Ukraine operation, UK says | Reuters

EU: ,Has the war in Ukraine made the EU a geopolitical actor? – by Nicoletta Pirozzi

The war in Ukraine represents the greatest geopolitical challenge facing the European Union. Moscow attacked Kiev with explicitly imperialist aims, with a view to restoring what it considers its rightful ‘sphere of influence’ in the European neighbourhood, thus implicitly threatening other European countries (including EU members).

The aggression also entails a systemic element. Vladimir Putin’s Russia is promoting an autocratic-state model in the European neighbourhood, in contrast to the democratic polity towards which countries such as Ukraine and Georgia have been striving—the value system on which the EU is founded and which it seeks to project.

This has led the union to rethink radically its relations with Russia. The traditionally co-operative approach is giving way to a sort of containment strategy, which will last for the foreseeable future. Hence the reflection on how to end the energy and technological dependencies that bind Europe to Russia, the offer of substantial support to democracy in countries threatened by its expansionism and the defence of the resilience of our societies from Russian interference through disinformation and cyber assaults.

Most fundamentally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed the EU to exercise a proactive role at regional and global levels, thus testing its ability to implement the ‘strategic autonomy’ it has been advocating for a long time. And in its immediate reaction to the menace coming from east, the EU has shown a unity and resolve many—perhaps including Putin—did not expect.

Read more at: Has the war in Ukraine made the EU a geopolitical actor? – Nicoletta Pirozzi

Russian Invasion Ukraine: Too Few Troops, Not Enough Supplies—Russia’s Eastern Offensive Could Be Doomed - by David Axe

As Russia’s wider war in Ukraine nears its second month, the Kremlin still hasn’t solved its fundamental military problems. The Russian army didn’t have enough infantry and supply trucks to win a three-front war in Ukraine’s south, east and north. Now it’s fighting on only two fronts—the south and east. But it’s got even fewer infantry and trucks than before.

So while the Russians’ artillery might punch a hole in the outermost Ukrainian defenses, allowing a few tank battalions to roll through, there aren’t enough foot soldiers to both protect the tanks and guard the flanks of the advance. To say nothing of securing fragile supply lines as they stretch out over scores or hundreds of miles from the nearest railheads.

Logistical failures doomed Russia’s attempt to encircle Kyiv in the first month of the war. Those same logistical failures, exacerbated by a worsening infantry shortage, could doom Russia’s offensive in the east, too.

Read more at: Too Few Troops, Not Enough Supplies—Russia’s Eastern Offensive Could Be Doomed

Ukraine war: Russia warns West of 'unpredictable consequences'

Moscow formally warns of "unpredictable consequences" if the US and allies keep supplying weapons to Ukraine

Read more at: Ukraine war latest news: Russia warns West of 'unpredictable consequences' - BBC News

Russia Invasion Ukraine: Alexander Dvornikov: What to know about Russia’s new top commander in Ukraine

Moscow has appointed a new top commander, Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, in a major reshuffle. He assumes oversight of the campaign amid mounting civilian deaths, widespread destruction and slow advances, with Russian forces mired in logistical problems and military blunders, according to Western officials and analysts.

Before his appointment, there had not been a single military leader for all Russian forces. This lack of cohesion could change under Dvornikov, a senior figure whose appointment a senior U.S. official confirmed to The Washington Post on Saturday.

The general had been commanding Russia’s southern military district, a key post he gained after serving as the first leader of the Russian air war campaign in Syria. Russia is accused of committing war crimes in both conflicts.

Read more at: Alexander Dvornikov: What to know about Russia’s new top commander in Ukraine - The Washington Post

Ukraine - Russian Invasion: Biden, Putin and the danger of Versailles

Shortly after the 1918 armistice that ended the first world war, David Lloyd George, Britain’s prime minister, was thumpingly re-elected on the slogan “Hang the Kaiser”. Germany’s exiled Kaiser Wilhelm got off lightly. But the spirit of revenge that followed the “war to end all wars” held firm. The allies’ ensuing Treaty of Versailles sowed a peace that would poison all peace.

It may seem early to speculate about a Ukrainian deal with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, though talks have been taking place and draft peace proposals exchanged. Putin has a history of saying one thing and doing the opposite, which could prove lethally deceptive in Ukraine. Few believe Putin is ever likely to drop his ultimate ambition of swallowing Ukraine. Any deal, let alone a ceasefire, should thus be treated as a tactical pause.

Yet at some point, the west will have to talk to the enemy it has rather than the one it would like. That will mean doing some kind of a deal with Putin. The alternative — aiming for Russia’s unconditional surrender and the ejection of Putin — is a bet western leaders cannot afford to indulge. Given Putin’s barbarity, this may prove too much for western publics to digest, let alone the abused people of Ukraine.

Yet the lessons of Versailles are there. The mood in Washington and other western capitals is understandably punitive. In addition to the wanton slaughter of civilians, Russian artillery is levelling huge tracts of Ukraine. The cost may already be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. US president Joe Biden’s temptation will be to seize Russian central bank dollar assets in reparation for Ukraine’s damage. Biden would also find it politically very hard to lift sanctions while Putin remains in power. In 1919, the allied powers imposed crippling reparations on a defeated Germany, even though its war leaders had been ousted. It would be harder for today’s allies to resist imposing a Carthaginian peace on a Russia that is still run by Putin.

Biden’s challenge will thus be even trickier than what faced his predecessor, Woodrow Wilson. Unlike Germany in 1919, Russia has nuclear weapons and cannot be forced to surrender. The best definition of Russian defeat would be its withdrawal from the slices of Ukraine it has occupied. Even that would be a tall order. Ejecting Russia in whole would be hard for Ukraine to do alone. Yet direct western involvement is unthinkable. That means Ukraine could be forced to suffer months or even years of bloody stalemate.

Read more at Biden, Putin and the danger of Versailles | Financial Times

Russia Invasion of Ukraine: Is the Ukraine war weakening Putin’s position in Russia?

The Russian president enjoys a solid level of support among legislators, as evidenced by a recent vote days before the war began to recognise the separatist, self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhan

At the same time, Putin’s United Russia party has been accused of vote-rigging, keeping him in power for more than 20 years.

Read more at: Is the Ukraine war weakening Putin’s position in Russia? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Uktaine War - sanctions: Alexei Mordashov: Russia’s richest man is now an EU sanctions target

He is the Russian oligarch who stepped in to keep travel firm Tui afloat, pumping in cash as international tourism came to a standstill during the pandemic.
However, Alexei Mordashov – who owns a third of Europe’s biggest tour operator and is its largest single shareholder – may be becoming something of a liability for Tui, whose shares are listed in London, after the EU added him to its sanctions list on Monday night.

While Mordashov has not been sanctioned in the UK, his business interests in the region will now be severely curtailed.

Read more at: Alexei Mordashov: Russia’s richest man is now an EU sanctions target | The super-rich | The Guardian

Russian Invasion Ukraine: More than 1,700 people detained in widespread Russian protests against Ukraine invasion

Shocked Russians turned out by the thousands Thursday to decry their country's invasion of Ukraine as emotional calls for protests grew on social media.

Around 1,745 people in 54 Russian cities were detained, at least 957 of them in Moscow, according to OVD-Info, which has documented crackdowns on Russia's opposition for years.

Read more at: More than 1,700 people detained in widespread Russian protests against Ukraine invasion | CBC News