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8/20/08

globeandmail.com: Moscow transforms real-world game of RISK - by Shawn McCarthy and Matthew Campbell

For the complete report from the globeandmail.com click on this link

Moscow transforms real-world game of RISK - by Shawn McCarthy and Matthew Campbell

In early 2002, some 200 U.S. Special Forces soldiers landed in the former Soviet republic of Georgia to train the Georgian army in anti-terrorism techniques, including how to protect a planned oil pipeline from secessionist or anti-Western saboteurs. With strong encouragement from Washington, Georgia was finalizing a deal with its neighbours, Azerbaijan and Turkey, and Britain's BP PLC to build a $3.9-billion (U.S.) pipeline from the oil-rich Caspian region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. The 1,768-kilometre, somewhat-circuitous route bypassed major U.S. rivals in the region, Russia and Iran, as well as Armenia, the traditional enemy of Turkey and Azerbaijan.It was part of the United States' effort to reduce Russia's dominance of the region's booming oil trade, and by doing so to encourage the development of independent-minded states on its rival's southern flank.

For more than a decade, Russia watched while the U.S. and Europe played the new “great game” of energy geopolitics in its own backyard. It was 10 years ago this weekend that Russia plunged into financial crisis by devaluing the ruble and defaulting on its mounting debt. With the Georgian invasion, the Kremlin has sent notice that it now controls the Risk board. And that it is willing to use its armed forces to back up what it regards as its national interest in neighbouring states. At stake is control over one of the world's most promising new sources of crude oil – one that could rival the impact of the North Sea a generation ago. The U.S., in particular, has worked strenuously to minimize Russia's influence over this energy development.

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