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4/29/22

EU Economy: Weak EU growth and Covid-hit China raise prospect of global downturn - by Martin Arnold and Valentina Romei

New data on Friday showed that the Russian invasion is weighing on Europe’s economy, pushing up energy and food prices, worsening supply bottlenecks for manufacturers as well as sapping business and consumer confidence.

The disappointing news came a day after the US announced that its economy suffered an unexpected 0.4 per cent quarterly contraction, while worries about the impact of severe Covid-19 lockdowns in China caused the steepest monthly fall in the renminbi on record.

The Chinese currency has fallen 4.2 per cent this month to about Rmb6.6 per dollar, the biggest drop since the end of its US dollar peg, which was in place from 1994 to 2005. The fall is greater than a one-off devaluation by the Chinese central bank in 2015 that rattled global markets and a tumble in 2018 during the US-China trade war under the Trump administration.

Economists said the combination of weak global growth, soaring commodity prices and a series of expected interest rate rises by western central banks — including an unusually large 0.5 percentage point hike by the US Federal Reserve that could come next week — would spell trouble for the global economy.

“The world is in really bad shape,” said Erik Nielsen, chief economics adviser at UniCredit. “Particularly in Europe, where we have entered stagflation now.” He predicted that the eurozone was heading for a “double whammy” of an economic downturn and rising borrowing costs as the European Central Bank was likely to raise interest rates as early as July.

Read more at: Weak EU growth and Covid-hit China raise prospect of global downturn | Financial Times

Russia Navalny review – staggering portrait of Putin’s extraordinary arch-enemy -- by Peter Bradshaw

It’s impossible to watch this absorbing documentary about anti-Putin dissident Alexei Navalny without a terrible suspicion entering your mind: did Putin order his grotesque Ukraine invasion because of Navalny? Was it a diversionary tactic against the huge, growing wave of protest spearheaded by Navalny who, in 2021, had defiantly returned to Russia from German exile and whose instant arrest and imprisonment merely fanned the flames of his international celebrity? Putin was no doubt deeply enraged by this social-media megastar who had not only survived a Novichok assassination attempt but then humiliated the Kremlin by unmasking his malign and cack-handed would-be killers online.

Navalny is an extraordinary figure in many ways: approachable, telegenic and easygoing. Or mostly easygoing, anyway: he can still sound irritable and defensive when questioned about his appearances on the same stage as extreme Russian nationalists about 10 years earlier, and perhaps this film could have looked harder at the facts of Navalny’s early life. But the real eye-opener is the interview with the Bulgarian investigative journalist Christo Grosev of the website Bellingcat who managed such breathtaking feats of detection on Navalny’s behalf in finding the FSB assailants. Grosev is all about data: by getting hold of passenger manifests, travel details or call records – and everything digital leaves a trace – he can put together an objective picture, even retrieving the culprits’ passport photos.

It is quite staggering. And Navalny’s story has a particular resonance in Britain: he survived, but Dawn Sturgess did not – the blameless British national was fatally poisoned with Novichok on British soil in 2018, as the chaotic byproduct of a bungling attempt by Russian agents to kill former agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury. For so many reasons, Navalny’s story concerns us all.

Read more at: Navalny review – staggering portrait of Putin’s extraordinary arch-enemy | Film | The Guardian

4/28/22

Russian Invasion Ukraine: ussia could target UK diplomats in Ukraine capital after British minister backs of bombing Russia  | Daily Mail Online

he Kremlin has warned it could target military sites in the UK because of British support for Ukraine, while adding that it could also hit British diplomats returning to Kyiv after a defence minister's 'provocative' talk of bombing Russia.

Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, suggested that strikes could be authorised against NATO states who provide arms to Ukraine.

She warned: 'Do we understand correctly that for the sake of disrupting the logistics of military supplies, Russia can strike military targets on the territory of those Nato countries that supply arms to the Kyiv regime? 'After all, this directly leads to deaths and bloodshed on Ukrainian territory. As far as I understand, Britain is one of those countries.'

Her words came after Britain's Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said that the UK backed Ukrainian air strikes on Russian infrastructure.

He added that it would be 'completely legitimate' for British weapons to be used in such attacks, even though none are currently thought to be.

Heappey also said that Britain would re-start the training of Ukrainian troops inside Ukraine if the conflict became 'frozen' in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Read more at: Russia could target UK diplomats in Ukraine capital after British minister backs of bombing Russia  | Daily Mail Online

Russia: Putin Is No Strongman: He’s Leading Russia into Ruin

It’s no surprise that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to make nice with Vladimir Putin later this week. The Russian president sure does look like a winner these days. Of course, there’s the obvious: In just two months, the United States—Moscow’s main competitor on the world stage—will be led by an incompetent demagogue whose most consistent foreign policy view is admiration for the Russian strongman. Even more impressively, this week Washington is convulsing with hysteria at the prospect that it was that very same strongman who put Donald Trump into the White House in the first place.

But that’s not all. In Europe, electoral victories by right-wing populists from Poland to Hungary to the United Kingdom have moved into positions of power leaders friendly towards Putin and tolerant of his misbehavior. Bulgaria and Moldova have just joined the club, and the next French elections, which will almost certainly result in another Putin-friendly European presidency, are just around the corner. That’s not to mention recent success of the Syrian regime, a key Russian ally which, after years of slaughter, seems to be making serious headway against the Islamic State.

Abe’s overtures toward Putin are then easy to understand given this narrative of a confident and ascendant Russia. His outreach may have raised eyebrows in Washington, but after all, the U.S. capital will be a very different place come January 20. And of course there’s no harm in trying to make a long-delayed land deal, especially if it will result in tangible benefits for both countries. There’s also the longer view: If the United States is indeed in relative decline, as the conventional wisdom holds, then stronger relationships with the world’s other powers must be in Japan’s interest.

Reasd more at: Putin Is No Strongman: He’s Leading Russia into Ruin | JAPAN Forward

4/26/22

Armenia- Turkey Relations : As Armenia pushes for reconciliation, Turkey plays hard to get

In the village of Haykadzor on the edge of Armenia’s long sealed border with Turkey, Boris Davutyan, a 70-year-old farmer with a sun-weathered face, says he is in favor of peace with his country’s historical foe. “It would be good for trade,” he said, gesturing toward the Akhouryan River that separates Turkey from Armenia. “In Soviet times we used to go down to the river and smoke cigarettes and drink vodka with the Turks. The genocide committed against us by the Ottomans was 100 years ago. You have to look to the future, not be stuck in the past.”

Some 117 kilometers (73 miles) southeast, at a windswept cemetery overlooking Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, Armen Poghosyan stared at his only son’s grave. His head was bowed, his body stiffened with grief. He has been coming every single day since the 19-year-old was laid to rest alongside his comrades on this hilltop facing the snow-capped peak of Mount Ararat on the Turkish side.

Barsegh was killed “either by artillery fire or in a drone strike, we don’t know for sure,” a day after the war started on Sept. 27, 2020, Poghosyan said. “Turkey is our centuries-old enemy. We can’t be friends with those who got drunk on the blood of our children.”

Barsegh was among the 3,825 Armenians who perished in Armenia’s 44-day war with Azerbaijan.

The site, called Yerablur, Armenian for “based on three hills,” is carpeted with the graves of the fallen. Most of them are under 30. Their faces, engraved on dark grey basalt headstones, exude a childlike exuberance.

Turkey, with its military advisers and killer drones, tipped the balance decisively in Azerbaijan’s favor, helping its Muslim Turkic cousins wrest back large swathes of territory occupied by Armenia in a previous war three decades ago. Today, Armenia, a landlocked country of 2.9 million that long seemed invincible as much to itself as to the world beyond, is shaken to its core. At one extreme there are those like the farmer Davutyan who seek peace and at the other, people like the bereaved father Poghosyan who dream of revenge. Somewhere in the middle sits a silent majority numbed by fear and helplessness bordering on apathy.

Read more at As Armenia pushes for reconciliation, Turkey plays hard to get - Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East

Russia: Vladimir Putin will be ousted – it’s just a matter of when and how-byJeremy Smith t

It appears that Nato’s preferred outcome is a Russia that is militarily victorious but economically crippled. I cannot imagine a more frightening combination.

The outcome we all seem reluctant to discuss is the only non-catastrophic one: that Putin will be removed by internal forces.

Both common sense and history dictate that this will happen eventually. Even Robert Mugabe was finally ousted. The question is when and how. Our leaders need to take this into account when making their decisions in the coming days. Abandoning Ukraine to destruction only makes Putin harder to remove.

Read more a:t: Vladimir Putin will be ousted – it’s just a matter of when and how | Letters | The Guardian

France: Victorious Macron vows to unite France after fending off Le Pen threat

The pro-European centrist Emmanuel Macron has vowed to unite a divided France after winning a second term as French president in a decisive victory against the far-right’s Marine Le Pen, who nonetheless won more than 13 million votes in a historic high for her anti-immigration party.

Macron became the first French leader to win re-election for 20 years, scoring 58.54% to Le Pen’s 41.46%.

Addressing a victory rally at the foot of the Eiffel Tower, where his supporters waved French and European flags, Macron vowed to respond “efficiently” to the “anger and disagreement” of voters who chose the far right.

Read more at: Victorious Macron vows to unite France after fending off Le Pen threat | French presidential election 2022 | The Guardian

4/24/22

France: French election 2022: Voting under way in presidential runoff

French voters are casting their ballot in the presidential runoff to choose between centrist incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right politician Marine Le Pen.

Opinion polls suggest that Macron, 44, has a solid lead, but analysts have cautioned that low turnout could sway the outcome in either direction. About 48.7 million citizens are eligible to vote.

Read more at: French election 2022: Voting under way in presidential runoff | News | Al Jazeera

Russian Invasion Ukraine: Too Few Troops, Not Enough Supplies—Russia’s Eastern Offensive Could Be Doomed - by David Axe

As Russia’s wider war in Ukraine nears its second month, the Kremlin still hasn’t solved its fundamental military problems. The Russian army didn’t have enough infantry and supply trucks to win a three-front war in Ukraine’s south, east and north. Now it’s fighting on only two fronts—the south and east. But it’s got even fewer infantry and trucks than before.

So while the Russians’ artillery might punch a hole in the outermost Ukrainian defenses, allowing a few tank battalions to roll through, there aren’t enough foot soldiers to both protect the tanks and guard the flanks of the advance. To say nothing of securing fragile supply lines as they stretch out over scores or hundreds of miles from the nearest railheads.

Logistical failures doomed Russia’s attempt to encircle Kyiv in the first month of the war. Those same logistical failures, exacerbated by a worsening infantry shortage, could doom Russia’s offensive in the east, too.

Read more at: Too Few Troops, Not Enough Supplies—Russia’s Eastern Offensive Could Be Doomed

4/23/22

Rusian Invasion Ukraine: Famous Russian Chess Player Kasparov says: Putin’s playing poker, not chess, won’t have a 2-2 draw:

Garry Kasparov, rare voice of reason in modern sport, chose once again to describe the Russian aggression of Ukraine and Vladimir Putin’s manoeuvres as anything but chess. The Russian Grandmaster, former world champion, political commentator, instead likened it to poker. “Not chess,” reiterated Putin’s harshest critic, “Putin is a geopolitical poker player, maybe, more like Russian Roulette,” he said, speaking via video at ET Now’s India Economic Conclave 2022 on Friday.

Kasparov said the Russian aggression “would not have a two-two draw,” as it happens in chess. “No draws, no compromise,” he said, reminding the audience that war crimes were being carried out in Ukraine “on an industrial scale”

. “Such demolition of Ukraine, I last saw in World War II movies,” he said, adding that it was a state-backed genocide of Ukraine pushed by Russian propaganda. But Kasparov was confident that the war was talking a different turn than what Putin had ever imagined. “Everybody thought Ukraine will fall in three days. That did not happen. Remember that with the arms push from Europe, the Ukranian army is currently bigger than the Russian, and with eight years of fighting (2014 aggression in Crimea), more experienced,” he said. “Putin had not envisaged this, he has been forced to rally his soldiers from the far east,” Kasparov said.

Read more at: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/91015704.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Read more at: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/91015704.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Read more at putin: Putin’s playing poker, not chess, won’t have a 2-2 draw: Kasparov - Times of India

Ukraine US Relations - is US preparing an ultimatum to Russia- Stop hostilities and negotiate or else ? As top level US officials to meet with Zelenskyy

Zelenskyy at a press conference on Saturday said he plans to meet with Blinken and Austin but did not share any details.

The White House declined to comment Saturday. A State Department spokesperson also declined to comment.

The trip would mark the highest-ranking U.S. officials to visit Ukraine since Russia launched the war.

Biden said on April 14 that he was working with his foreign policy team to determine whether he should send a senior member of his administration to Ukraine in what would be a potentially dramatic show of support.

Read more at: Top US officials to meet with Zelenskyy: Live Russia-Ukraine updates

4/22/22

Earth Day: 5 ways we’re working to repair the damage to our planet and combat climate change

International Mother Earth Day is a chance to reflect on how humanity has been treating our planet, and let’s face it: we’ve been poor custodians. And while a steady stream of IPCC reports has painted a legitimately worrying picture of the current state of the planet, don’t lose hope – here's why: there are more innovative ideas for serious climate action than ever and around the world, people are working together on solutions to help repair the damage that’s been done to our fragile home.

But before we get to the exciting stuff, there’s no denying the gravity of the problem.

The Earth is facing a ‘triple planetary crisis’: climate disruption, nature and biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste.

“This triple crisis is threatening the well-being and survival of millions of people around the world. The building blocks of happy, healthy lives – clean water, fresh air, a stable and predictable climate – are in disarray, putting the Sustainable Development Goals in jeopardy”, the UN Secretary-General warns in a video message for Earth Day 2022.

Read more at: Earth Day: 5 ways we’re working to repair the damage to our planet and combat climate change | | UN News

4/21/22

USA: Remarks By President Biden Providing an Update on Russia and Ukraine | The White House

Good morning, everyone. Sorry to keep you waiting a little bit. I had the honor of spending some time with the Ukrainian Prime Minister, who’s in town today. And he is meeting with some of my Cabinet members, including the Secretary of Treasury and others.

And we had a — a good discussion. I talked about what I’m about to tell you about today, as well as — he was thanking the American people for their support, understands it’s significant, and was — we talked about keeping everyone together, in terms of Europe, the European Union, and others, in the effort to stop Putin’s brutality.

But before I head out to the West Coast, I want to quickly update the American people on the latest steps we’re taking to support the people of Ukraine and to hold Putin accountable for his brutal and bloody war.

Read more at: Remarks By President Biden Providing an Update on Russia and Ukraine | The White House

RUSSIA: Can Putin be overthrown? Russia's leader has sought to prevent a coup - by Holly Ellyatt

If his reputation wasn’t bad enough before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is now even more widely seen as unstable, unreliable and untrustworthy.

The invasion has prompted analysts to question whether Putin has a moral compass as well as his sense of reality, geopolitical strategy and grip on power.

Strategists are asking whether the invasion of Ukraine could backfire spectacularly on Putin, leaving him vulnerable to an uprising at home, as living standards fall, or a coup led from within the elite.

Read more at: Can Putin be overthrown? Russia's leader has sought to prevent a coup

France: French election: Macron and Le Pen clash in TV presidential debate - by Henri Astier & Paul Kirby

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has fallen behind centrist Emmanuel Macron in the opinion polls but millions of voters are still undecided.

It did not take long for the two-hour-45-minute clash to burst into life. The candidates confronted each other on the cost of living, Russia, climate change and immigration.

Around 15.6 million viewers watched the debate, in which Mr Macron accused his rival of being dependent on Russian power while Marine Le Pen called him a hypocrite on climate change.

Spiralling prices have dominated the campaign and immediately took centre stage in the debate.

Read more at: French election: Macron and Le Pen clash in TV presidential debate - BBC News

4/20/22

U.S. Rights Report Warns Of Global 'Backsliding,' As Blinken Slams Russia Over Ukraine

Ukrainian former world heavyweight boxing champ Wladimir Klitschko declared that Ukraine will "close the sky on our own" amid Russia's war with the eastern European country after the US and its allies have rejected pleas to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine's skies.

"[If] allies and partners cannot close the sky [over Ukraine,] we will constantly get bombarded with rockets and air strikes," Klitschko, the brother of the mayor of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, told CNN on Tuesday.

Klitschko added, "So if you don't close the sky, just give us the weapons. We're going to close the sky on our own. And we have enough of our will to defend our country. We just need the equipment to do it," according to the news outlet.

The ex-boxer and member of the Kyiv Territorial Defense called on world leaders to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine and to ramp up economic sanctions against Russia.

“In few places have the human consequences of this decline been as stark as they are in the Russian government’s brutal war on Ukraine,” Blinken said in remarks on the release of the U.S. State Department’s 2021 global human rights report.

“Governments are locking up more critics at home…. We’ve also seen a rise in governments arbitrarily detaining individuals to try to gain leverage in bilateral relationships, to use them as human pawns,” he added.

Read more at: U.S. Rights Report Warns Of Global 'Backsliding,' As Blinken Slams Russia Over Ukraine

Russian Invasion Ukraine: Wladimir Klitschko Says Ukraine Will 'Close the Sky on Our Own' - by Natalie Musumeci

Ukrainian former world heavyweight boxing champ Wladimir Klitschko declared that Ukraine will "close the sky on our own" amid Russia's war with the eastern European country after the US and its allies have rejected pleas to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine's skies.

"[If] allies and partners cannot close the sky [over Ukraine,] we will constantly get bombarded with rockets and air strikes," Klitschko, the brother of the mayor of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, told CNN on Tuesday.

Klitschko added, "So if you don't close the sky, just give us the weapons. We're going to close the sky on our own. And we have enough of our will to defend our country. We just need the equipment to do it," according to the news outlet.

The ex-boxer and member of the Kyiv Territorial Defense called on world leaders to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine and to ramp up economic sanctions against Russia.

Read more at: Wladimir Klitschko Says Ukraine Will 'Close the Sky on Our Own'

USA - Florida; Governer de Santis picks fight with one of the major Florida economic contributors - Governor DeSantis targets Disney’s self-governing status in escalation over ‘Don’t Say Gay’ -

Note RU-Digest: "Ghandi seems to have hit the nail on the head when he said - "CHRISTIAN NATIONS SEEK WEALTH AND FIGHT MOST WARS. "I like your Christ, but not your Christianity."

Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republicans in Florida are escalating their battle with the Walt Disney Co. amid fallout over a bill that banned classroom teaching of gender identity and sexual orientation in kindergarten through third grade.

DeSantis announced on Tuesday that the GOP-controlled Legislature during this week’s special session will take up a bill that would dismantle the special district that has allowed Disney to operate its own local government in central Florida that is the home to Walt Disney World. Legislators are already scheduled to hold a three-and-a-half day special session where they will pass a new congressional map proposed by the governor that will help the GOP pick up seats in the upcoming election.

Read more at DeSantis targets Disney’s self-governing status in escalation over ‘Don’t Say Gay’ - POLITICO

Russia-EU Relations: Russia Expels 36 Belgian, Dutch Diplomats In Tit-For-Tat Move

Russia says it is expelling 36 diplomats from two EU countries in retaliation for similar steps taken against Moscow's foreign envoys over the Kremlin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on April 19 that it had declared 21 diplomats from Belgium and 15 from the Netherlands "personae non gratae," giving them two weeks to leave the country.

The ministry also summoned Luxembourg's ambassador to Moscow, warning him that Russia may decide to take reciprocal measures for the tiny European state's recent expulsion of Moscow's envoy.

Read more at Russia Expels 36 Belgian, Dutch Diplomats In Tit-For-Tat Move

UKRAINE -RUSSIAN iNVASION: Russia Warns Denmark It Could Become A Nuclear Target

Moscow issued a stark warning to Copenhagen on Saturday, saying that the Danish navy will be targeted for potential nuclear attacks from Russia if Denmark joins the NATO missile defence shield.

"I don't think that Danes fully understand the consequence if Denmark joins the American-led missile defence shield," Mikhail Vanin, the Russian ambassador to Denmark, told the Jyllands-Posten newspaper. "If they do, then Danish warships will be targets for Russian nuclear missiles."

Mr Vanin went on to say that if Copenhagen joined the NATO missile defence system the Baltic state would become a great threat to Russia and relations between the two countries would be "less peaceful."

Read more at: Russia Warns Denmark It Could Become A Nuclear Target

Russia begins offensive in Eastern Ukraine



Read more at Russia begins offensive in eastern Ukraine: April 18 recap

4/18/22

New EU sanctions on Russia to target Sberbank, Commission head tells paper

The European Union's forthcoming sanctions on Russia will target banks, in particular Sberbank (SBER.MM), as well as oil, the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen told a German newspaper.

Bild am Sonntag, in an interview published on Sunday, asked her to name the key points of a planned sixth round of sanctions.

"We are looking further at the banking sector, especially Sberbank, which accounts for 37% of the Russian banking sector. And, of course, there are energy issues," she said.

Read more at: New EU sanctions on Russia to target Sberbank, Commission head tells paper | Reuters

China-Russia Relations: No Limits’? Understanding China’s Engagement With Russia on Ukraine – by Igor Denisov

Vladimir Putin’s last visit to China took less than half a day. The Russian president landed in Beijing on the afternoon of February 4 and left for Moscow the same day, shortly after the evening Opening Ceremony of the Winter Olympics. Putin didn’t even attend the next day’s banquet, at which Chinese President Xi Jinping toasted foreign dignitaries. To fit in with the Russian leader’s tight schedule, Xi arrived at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse instead of receiving Putin, like the other guests, at the Great Hall of the People.

There is much speculation on whether the primary purpose of Putin’s swift visit was to brief the Chinese leader on the upcoming military operation in Ukraine and secure Beijing’s backing. Many believe that, yes, Xi knew everything in advance; moreover, some say Xi specifically asked Putin to carry out the operation only after the Olympics’ Closing Ceremony.

There is little evidence that the two leaders’ talks and working dinner on February 4 focused on the internal dynamics in Ukraine. Still, NATO and the activities of U.S.-centric alliances in the Asia-Pacific may well have been discussed. While Ukraine is totally absent from the joint statement approved by Putin and Xi, criticism of the Western bloc’s policies affecting the two countries’ security is prominently present.

Read more at:‘No Limits’? Understanding China’s Engagement With Russia on Ukraine – The Diplomat

The Return of Realpolitik — by William C. Wohlforth

A narrative has taken hold around the world that might be titled “the return of Realpolitik.” From the happy days of globalization in the 1990s to the frenzied war on terror and associated counterinsurgency struggles of the first decade of the 2000s, the argument goes, great powers and geopolitics are back. Walter Russell Mead put this conventional wisdom well: “Whether it is Russian forces seizing Crimea, China making aggressive claims in its coastal waters, Japan responding with an increasingly assertive strategy of its own, or Iran trying to use its alliances with Syria and Hezbollah to dominate the Middle East, old-fashioned power plays are back in international relations.”

Many analysts portray current contestation as the leading edge of a full-blown conflict over the U.S.-led global order. That is the meaning of the oft-heard claim that “unipolarity” has ended and new conflict-prone multipolar order has emerged. That is what underlies the increasingly popular 1914 analogy likening China’s rise today to Germany’s pre-World War I ascent. Others reject this as alarming, claiming that the liberal global order is robust and able to continue absorbing new states into its ranks. As rising states like China grow, John Ikenberry contends, they “will have more ‘equities’ to protect, and this will lead them more deeply into the existing order.”

A careful look at power realities leads to a more nuanced position. Realpolitik is about the relationship between material capabilities – “hard power” in today’s parlance – and legitimacy, influence, the ability to achieve desired outcomes. From that perspective, power politics is not “back” after having been away on some vacation. It has always been here. It was here when the Cold War ended, when the Soviet Union collapsed, when the U.S.-led alliance of the “Broader West” expanded its aims and influence in the 1990s. Indeed, missing from Mead’s list of “power plays” is the country that remained highly active all along: the United States. What is different today is that power plays are more visible because other countries are pushing back harder. There is nothing new about China’s maritime claim or its views about the U.S. presence in Asia. Nor is there anything new about Russia’s dissatisfaction with the expansion of Western security institutions near its borders. What is new is the willingness of these governments to press their case more forcefully.

Read more at: The Return of Realpolitik — Russia in Global Affairs

4/17/22

Russia: New laws aim to crush even mild forms of protest in Russia

Russia has become increasingly ruthless in its crackdown of anti-war dissent with more arrests, police barging into public events and even arresting people simply for talking to foreign outlets. 2:28

In the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Marat Grachev and his staff at his computer repair store in Moscow discussed how to voice their opposition in an environment where any dissent is silenced.
Grachev, 35, thought taking to the streets seemed futile, as demonstrators were being dragged away by the police moments after brandishing signs.

Read more at: New laws aim to crush even mild forms of protest in Russia | CBC News

Ukraine Russian Invasion: Group of Russian elite plans to assassinate Putin by poison, claims Ukraine intelligence, according to the Times of India

A group of influential people who oppose President Vladimir Putin and who plan to assassinate him, is forming among the Russian business and political elite, according to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.

Acording to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, the key "targets" of mercenaries: are Volodymyr Zelensky, Andriy Yermak, and Denys Shmyhal.

It is also known that Bortnikov and some other influential members of the Russian elite are considering various options for removing Putin from power. In particular, poisoning, sudden illness, or other "accident" is not excluded, the intelligence said.

Read more at: Group of Russian elite plans to assassinate Putin by poison, claims Ukraine intelligence : The Tribune India

French election: Macron leads Le Pen, but warns ′nothing is decided′

French voters are more likely to support incumbent President Emmanuel Macron than challenger Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential vote next weekend, according to a new poll published on Saturday.
An Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey found that Macron enjoys support of around 55.5% of the respondents. Marine Le Pen could count on 44.5% of the vote, with the voter turnout expected to be 72% in the runoff. The French researchers put the margin of error between 0.7 and 2.4 percentage points.

Read more at: French election: Macron leads Le Pen, but warns ′nothing is decided′ | News | DW | 16.04.2022

4/15/22

Democracy is in crisis - Opinion

If you think the United States is the only country plagued with conspiracy theories that threaten societal cohesion and democracy as a whole, you're wrong.

Almost three-quarters of Republican Party supporters in the United States believe Joe Biden is not the legitimate president of the country. Overall, 15% of the American population support the claim by the militant right-wing conspiracy conglomerate "QAnon" that the United States government, business, and media are "controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who sexually enslave children all over

Let's turn to Germany. According to a newly published representative poll by the Allensbach Institute, a third of all Germans believe they live in a "sham democracy" in which "citizens have no say." Are we living in a sham democracy?

Read more at: Görlach Global: Democracy is in crisis | Opinion | DW | 15.04.2022

Nuclear War: What the science says: Could humans survive a nuclear war between NATO and Russia?

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has suggested that he would consider using nuclear weapons if confronted with a NATO military response in Ukraine, or if faced with a direct threat to his person or regime. If the war spreads to a NATO country like Estonia or Poland a direct US-Russia confrontation would take place, with a clear danger of runaway nuclear escalation.

The world is therefore arguably now closer to nuclear conflict than at any time since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. So what would a full-scale nuclear exchange look like in reality? Is it truly global Armageddon, or would it be survivable for some people and places?

Many scientists have investigated this question already. Their work is surprisingly little known, likely because in peacetime no one wants to think the unthinkable. But we are no longer in peacetime and the shadows of multiple mushroom clouds are looming once again over our planet.

Read more at: What the science says: Could humans survive a nuclear war between NATO and Russia? - Alliance for Science

Ukraine war: Russia warns West of 'unpredictable consequences'

Moscow formally warns of "unpredictable consequences" if the US and allies keep supplying weapons to Ukraine

Read more at: Ukraine war latest news: Russia warns West of 'unpredictable consequences' - BBC News

4/14/22

USA: Coronavirus Cases Increase as BA.2, or ‘Stealth Omicron,’ Spreads

Deaths appear to be ticking slightly upward as well. As of April 8, the average was 516 deaths per day, according to CDC data. That’s up from an average of 472 reported just one day prior.

Fauci said the increase in cases is a concern but that it wasn’t surprising given the highly transmissible BA.2 variant is spreading and mitigation measures have been dropped.

“This is not unexpected, that you're going to see an uptick when you pull back on the mitigation methods,” Fauci said on ABC’s “This Week.”

He said that officials are watching the situation ”very, very carefully,” adding that he does not believe that deaths and hospitalizations will rise in a comparable way.

Read More at: U.S. Coronavirus Cases Increase as BA.2, or ‘Stealth Omicron,’ Spreads | Health News | US News

Russian Invasion Ukraine: Netherlands sends two F-35 fighters to Eastern Europe

Two Dutch F-35 fighter jets will be deployed to Eastern Europe to protect NATO airspace, the Ministry of Defense announced on Thursday. It will be the first time the Netherlands uses the F-35 aircraft in an official deployment.

Details of the mission were not revealed. The fighter jets already left the Leeuwarden Air Base, the ministry said.

Read more at Netherlands sends two F-35 fighters to Eastern Europe | NL Times

Russia warns of nuclear weapons in Baltic if Sweden and Finland join Nato - by J.Henley and J.Borger

Moscow has said it will be forced to strengthen its defences in the Baltic if Finland and Sweden join Nato, including by deploying nuclear weapons, as the war in Ukraine entered its seventh week and the country braced for a major attack in the east.

However, the Lithuanian defence minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, claimed on Thursday that Russia already had nuclear weapons stored in its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Lithuania and Poland. That claim has not been independently verified, but the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) reported in 2018 that nuclear weapon storage bunkers in Kaliningrad had been upgraded.

Read more at: Russia warns of nuclear weapons in Baltic if Sweden and Finland join Nato | Russia | The Guardian

IMF chief: Ukraine war and inflation threaten global economy

The head of the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday that Russia’s war against Ukraine was weakening the economic prospects for most of the world’s countries and called high inflation “a clear and present danger” to the global economy.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the consequences of Russia’s invasion were contributing to economic downgrades for 143 countries, although most of them should continue to grow. The war has disrupted global trade in energy and grain and is threatening to cause food shortages in Africa and Middle East.

Georgieva made her comments in a speech on the eve of next week’s spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington.

Read more at: IMF chief: Ukraine war and inflation threaten global economy | AP News

Russian Invasion of Ukriane: Russia says Moskva cruiser has sunk after reported Ukrainian missile strike - by P.Sauer, J.Borger and J. Elgot

Russia’s flagship missile cruiser Moskva has sunk in “stormy seas” while being towed to a port in the Black Sea following an explosion, the Russian defence ministry has announced. The Ukrainian southern military command claimed late on Wednesday to have struck the Moskva with Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles, while distracting its crew with an aerial drone, causing it to start sinking and forcing the crew to abandon ship.
Russia’s defence ministry initially denied reports that it had sunk and claimed the fires had been extinguished. Four Russian ships that had gone to the Moskva’s rescue were being hampered by stormy

But late on Thursday, the ministry said in a statement: “The cruiser ship Moskva lost its stability when it was towed to the port because of the damage to the ship’s hull that it received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition. In stormy sea conditions, the ship sank.”

Read more at: Russia says Moskva cruiser has sunk after reported Ukrainian missile strike | Russia | The Guardian

4/13/22

Genocide - many countries, including US, and many EU countries also have blood on their hands: After Biden remark, U.S. yet to commit to its own genocide probe of Russia : By H. Pamuk and D. Psaledakis

The United States on Wednesday stopped short of promising to launch its own inquiry to determine whether genocide was committed by Russia in Ukraine but said it will support international efforts to hold Russia accountable.

President Joe Biden said for the first time on Tuesday that Russia's invasion of Ukraine amounts to genocide, a significant escalation of his rhetoric. read more U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price on Wednesday declined to say whether Biden's comments reflected the overall position of the U.S. government, but said the president "was speaking to the impression he had garnered from watching the horrific footage that we've all seen" from Ukraine.

Read more at: After Biden remark, U.S. yet to commit to its own genocide probe of Russia | Reuters

Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Kremlin dismisses Ukraine’s offer to free Putin ally in prisoner exchange

The Kremlin has turned down Ukraine’s offer of a prisoner exchange for Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in Ukraine, the oligarch and opposition politician Viktor Medvedchuk, arrested on Tuesday in what was described as a “lightning-fast and dangerous” operation.

The capture of Medvedchuk, one of Ukraine’s richest men, who escaped house arrest on treason charges days after the Russian invasion, was first announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who posted a picture of the detainee on social media, dishevelled, in handcuffs and dressed in army fatigues with a Ukrainian flag patch.

Read more at: Kremlin dismisses Ukraine’s offer to free Putin ally in prisoner exchange | Ukraine | The Guardian

OXFAM - Global Poverty: Quarter of a billion people now face extreme poverty, warns Oxfam - by Kaamil Ahmed

The rising price of food caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and increased energy costs could push a quarter of a billion more people into extreme poverty, Oxfam has warned.

The charity said these new challenges had piled on to the economic crises created by Covid, and called for urgent international action, including cancelling debt repayments for poorer countries.

“Without immediate radical action, we could be witnessing the most profound collapse of humanity into extreme poverty and suffering in memory,” said Oxfam’s international executive director, Gabriela Bucher.

Oxfam’s briefing, released on Tuesday ahead of World Bank and IMF spring meetings next week, said indebted governments could be forced to cut public spending to meet the rising cost of importing fuel and food.

Oxfam said cancelling debt repayments for this year and next could free up $30bn (£23bn) for dozens of the countries facing the biggest debts.

Read more at: Quarter of a billion people now face extreme poverty, warns Oxfam | Global development | The Guardian

4/12/22

Ukraine Russian Invasion: Richest Russian strikes deal as sanctions snare other oligarchs

While many Russian tycoons were scrambling to shift their assets and move their superyachts in the wake of Western sanctions, the country's richest man, Mr Vladimir Potanin, was doing all that and more. Mr Potanin's Interros Capital agreed on Monday (April 11) to buy Societe Generale's entire stake in Rosbank. It is an asset Mr Potanin knows well: He and fellow billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov previously owned the bank, hired some of its executives and had planned to take it public in the mid-2000s until SocGen took a 10 per cent position.

Within a few years, the Paris-based lender controlled the entity, Mr Prokhorov was no longer a shareholder and Mr Potanin cashed out his remaining stake.

Read more at: Richest Russian strikes deal as sanctions snare other oligarchs | The Straits Times

Britain - will Johnson resign? Partygate': Renewed calls for Johnson to quit as police recommend 20 COVID rule breach fines

It's alleged multiple social gatherings were held in Downing Street, breaking the government's own rules designed to restrict the spread of COVID-19.

The Metropolitan Police force said Tuesday it wouldn't identify the recipients of the fixed penalty notices, but Johnson's office said it would reveal if he gets one. It wasn't clear whether 20 people received fines or whether some individuals got more than one.

The “partygate” scandal had left Johnson’s tenure on a knife-edge before Russia launched a war in Ukraine more than a month ago that gave Britain’s politicians more urgent priorities and pushed the scandal from the headlines.

Read more at: 'Partygate': Renewed calls for Johnson to quit as police recommend 20 COVID rule breach fines | Euronews

Microplastics and your health: How much plastic do you eat? It could be as much as a credit card a week

A recent study has found that people eat five grams of micro and nanoplastics every week.

From the most remote depths of the ocean, to the deepest section of the lung, microplastics appear to have invaded every bit of our lives, including the human gastrointestinal tract. The Medical University of Vienna has recently published a study in the journal Exposure & Health which suggests that on average, five grams of plastic particles enter the human gastrointestinal tract per person, per week.

Previous studies have already found particles in the human blood and organs. While microplastics have also been found to harm unborn babies.

Read more at: How much plastic do you eat? It could be as much as a credit card a week | Euronews

4/11/22

Russia Invasion Ukraine: Alexander Dvornikov: What to know about Russia’s new top commander in Ukraine

Moscow has appointed a new top commander, Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, in a major reshuffle. He assumes oversight of the campaign amid mounting civilian deaths, widespread destruction and slow advances, with Russian forces mired in logistical problems and military blunders, according to Western officials and analysts.

Before his appointment, there had not been a single military leader for all Russian forces. This lack of cohesion could change under Dvornikov, a senior figure whose appointment a senior U.S. official confirmed to The Washington Post on Saturday.

The general had been commanding Russia’s southern military district, a key post he gained after serving as the first leader of the Russian air war campaign in Syria. Russia is accused of committing war crimes in both conflicts.

Read more at: Alexander Dvornikov: What to know about Russia’s new top commander in Ukraine - The Washington Post

Russia Ukraine invasion: Inside Putin’s cabal of bloodthirsty top brass who bomb hospitals, gas kids, and run down protesters with tanks

As Putin's planned quick invasion of Ukraine appears to turn against him, the Russian army has resorted to more and more vicious measures.

Almost 90% of the southern city of Mariupol has been damaged or destroyed, while numerous atrocities have been reported, including the shelling of a theatre killing 300, or the bombing of a maternity hospital.

But these atrocities should sadly come as little surprise to those who have been following the actions

From the bloody civil war in Syria to the brutal annexation of Crimea, and even killing their own people, Putin's top generals have been accused of waging savagery across the world for decades.

Read more at Inside Putin’s cabal of bloodthirsty top brass who bomb hospitals, gas kids, and run down protesters with tanks

4/10/22

China - Corona Virus: : Why China Sticks With Costly Lockdowns and 'Zero COVID' - by John Feng

As the occupants of a high-rise apartment block in western Shanghai sang from their windows in the third week of China's harshest COVID lockdown since the beginning of the pandemic, a small drone carrying a loudspeaker sought to quell their benign protest with a dystopian message: "Dear residents ... Please strictly comply with the municipal government's epidemic prevention regulations. Control your soul's desire for freedom and refrain from opening your windows to sing. This behavior carries a risk of transmission."

Like many countries in the West, the United States has done away with most rules surrounding public health. Some argue the measures were never restrictive enough to be begin with. America's nearly 1 million COVID-19 deaths are now the go-to gibe in Beijing whenever Washington mentions the condition of human rights in China, where the death toll remains at a little more than 4,600.

With nearly 90 percent of China's population fully vaccinated, many observers outside the country—and some within—are wondering why policymakers still refuse to abandon their "zero-COVID" approach, despite fears that the strategy is becoming untenable.

Read more at: Why China Sticks With Costly Lockdowns and 'Zero COVID'

France: I want a France that is part of a strong Europe,' says Emmanuel Macron

Emmanuel Macron says he is the candidate for a "strong Europe" ahead of a presidential election run-off against Marine Le Pen.

Macron qualified ahead of his far-right rival for the second round of voting, due to take place on April 24.

"I want a France that is part of a strong Europe, that continues to forge alliances with the major democracies to defend itself," he said at his election night headquarters.

Note EU-Digest: President Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French Presidemtial elections today, against radical right wing and pro-Putin, Marine Le Pen, who like former US President Donald Trump and British PM Boris Johnson, whom based on on their history, can not be trusted.

Read more at: 'I want a France that is part of a strong Europe,' says Emmanuel Macron | Euronews

4/9/22

Russian Genocide continues: Mariupol's dead put at 5,000 as Ukraine braces in the east

The mayor of the besieged port city of Mariupol put the number of civilians killed there at more than 5,000 Wednesday, as Ukraine collected evidence of Russian atrocities on the ruined outskirts of Kyiv and braced for what could become a climactic battle for control of the country’s industrial east.

Ukrainian authorities continued gathering up the dead in shattered towns outside the capital amid telltale signs Moscow’s troops killed civilians indiscriminately before retreating over the past several days.

In other developments, the U.S. and its Western allies moved to impose new sanctions against the Kremlin over what they branded war crimes.

Read more at: Mariupol's dead put at 5,000 as Ukraine braces in the east | AP News

Russian Invasion Ukraine: Dozens killed in Kramatorsk train station after Russian rocket attack.

A rocket attack on a railway station in the eastern Ukrainian town of Kramatorsk killed dozens of people on Friday as civilians rushed to leave the Donbas region, which is in the crosshairs of the Russian military.

The remains of a large rocket bearing the inscription "for our children" in Russian lay just outside the main building.

Suitcases, stuffed animals and bags were strewn around the station and on the platform, dotted with human remains.

The Russian defence ministry said suggestions that it had carried out the attack were "absolutely false".

Intensive shelling has already begun to devastate towns in the region, and officials have pleaded with civilians to flee, but the intensity of the fighting is preventing this, as the Russion genocide continues.

Read more at: Dozens killed in Kramatorsk train station after Russian rocket attack. | Euronews

EU-Ukraine relations: EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in Kyiv on Friday.

Their visit came as the European Union recalled its ambassador to Kyiv, underlining the improved security situation and the EU-27's commitment to the beleaguered country.

Ursula von der Leyen and Josep Borrell also visited Bucha, a town outside Kyiv where Russian forces are accused by Ukraine's allies of committing atrocities against civilians. Ms von der Leyen said, "here in Bucha we have seen our humanity shattered"

Read more at: Ursula von der Leyen meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv | Euronews

4/7/22

Ukraine war: UN votes in favour of suspending Russia from Human Rights Council

LRussia's war in Ukraine is taking on a new dimension with growing evidence of human rights atrocities by Vladimir Putin's troops, accused of killing civilians in cold blood as they retreated from the Kyiv region.

Despite Moscow denying the accusations, there are fears similar massacres could be discovered in the coming days.

Ukraine is calling for more weapons from NATO and stronger Western sanctions against Russia.

Read more at: Ukraine war: UN votes in favour of suspending Russia from Human Rights Council | Euronews

US Supreme court: Ketanji Brown Jackson makes history as first Black woman confirmed to US supreme court - by LGambino and J;E Greve

Ketanji Brown Jackson, a liberal appeals court judge, was confirmed to the supreme court on Thursday, overcoming a rancorous Senate approval process and earning bipartisan approval to become the first Black woman to serve as a justice on the high court in its more than 200-year history.

After weeks of private meetings and days of public testimony, marked by intense sparring over judicial philosophy and personal reflections on race in America, Jackson earned narrow – but notable – bipartisan support to become the 116th justice of the supreme court. The vote was 53 to 47, with all Democrats in favor. They were joined by three moderate Republicans, senators Mitt Romney of Utah, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, who defied deep opposition within their party to support Joe Biden’s nominee. Their support was a welcome result for the White House, which had been intent on securing a bipartisan confirmation.

Read more at: Ketanji Brown Jackson makes history as first Black woman confirmed to US supreme court | Ketanji Brown Jackson | The Guardian

4/6/22

France election: Macron targets Le Pen's 'indulgence' of Putin as hard right rival closes gap



The two leading candidates in Sunday's French presidential election will appear on TV on Wednesday night in a key moment in the campaign, as Marine Le Pen continues to close the gap on Emmanuel Macron according to the latest polling. IFOP's survey updated on Tuesday evening on first-round voting intentions shows Macron on 27%, down by 0.5%, while his rival from the hard-right gains one percentage point to reach 23%, four points behind.

Another poll on Tuesday night, by Kantar-Epoka, puts Le Pen (23%) just two points behind Macron (25%), a fall of four percentage points for the current president in two weeks.

Read more at: France election: Macron targets Le Pen's 'indulgence' of Putin as hard right rival closes gap | Euronews

4/5/22

EU: Watch: Commission triggers rule of law mechanism against Hungary

The European Commission has notified Hungary that it is triggering the conditionality mechanism over rule of law breaches, opening the door to financial sanctions.

"The Commission has today spoken to the Hungarian authorities that we will now send a formal letter to start the conditionality mechanism," Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen told MEPs on Tuesday afternoon.

Read mor at: Watch: Commission triggers rule of law mechanism against Hungary | Euronews

4/4/22

Russia - Florida Relations: Talking About Russian Wealth Is 'Bad for Business' in South Florida - by Hillary Hoffower

Sunny Isles Beach, Florida, is keeping its lips sealed on the Russian wealth that lives there.

"They love to be here, and they like to spend their money and enjoy their life," Lana Bell, a Russian real-estate agent, told NewsNation correspondent Brian Entin of her wealthy Russian clientele right before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Bell didn't respond to multiple emails that I sent requesting to meet last week when I was in Sunny Isles. It's the same silence I received from other real-estate agents. One agent I did speak with deflected my question about Russian buyers, saying there weren't any. Sunny Isles Beach, Florida, is keeping its lips sealed on the Russian wealth that lives there.

Originally a place that attracted both tourists and immigrants fleeing communism in the Soviet Union, this pocket of Florida's Miami region saw a luxury-development boom at the turn of the century. Ever since, a number of Russian elites have parked money in the high-rise condos that tower over the ocean. But amid the rising tensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, many people don't want to talk about the money that helped fuel the city's economy and its nickname as "Little Moscow."

"They love to be here, and they like to spend their money and enjoy their life," Lana Bell, a Russian real-estate agent, told NewsNation correspondent Brian Entin of her wealthy Russian clientele right before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Bell didn't respond to multiple emails that I sent requesting to meet last week when I was in Sunny Isles. It's the same silence I received from other real-estate agents. One agent I did speak with deflected my question about Russian buyers, saying there weren't any.

Read more at: Talking About Russian Wealth Is 'Bad for Business' in South Florida

USA -Florida: Inside Florida's 'Little Moscow,' Where Russian Money Flows - by Hillary Hoffower

Like its namesake city, it's home to many Russian elites. Unlike it's namesake city, it's located on a small strip of land near Miami: Sunny Isles Beach, Florida.

"They love to be here, and they like to spend their money and enjoy their life," Lana Bell, a real-estate agent, recently told the News Nation correspondent Brian Entin, referring to her wealthy Russian clientele.

Russian money has brought a real-estate boom to the region over the years, but now these power players are afraid they might not be able to enjoy the Miami sunshine much longer. As Entin reported, they're worried the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict will blacklist them from buying American.

However, existing sanctions from past political events already slowed their buying efforts in recent years, and Biden has said the US will seize luxury apartments from Russian oligarchs with wealth parked in the country. But not all of Little Moscow's residents are wealthy, and not all of them support the war.

Read mre at: Inside Florida's 'Little Moscow,' Where Russian Money Flows

4/3/22

Ukraine Russian War: Killing of civilians in Bucha and Kyiv condemned as ‘terrible war crime’ - by J. Rankin and D.Boffey

Russia stands accused of “terrible” war crimes, as western leaders condemned the killings of unarmed civilians in Bucha and the surrounding areas of Kyiv in alleged atrocities that prompted fresh demands for tougher action against Moscow.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the Kremlin-ordered attack on his country amounted to genocide, after local officials reported scores of civilians had been killed in the towns of Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near the capital.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine’s refusal to be subdued to Russia was the reason “we are being destroyed and exterminated”, describing the war to the US network CBS as “the torture of the whole nation”.

Read more at: Killing of civilians in Bucha and Kyiv condemned as ‘terrible war crime’ | Ukraine | The Guardian

4/2/22

Ukraine - Russian Invasion: Biden, Putin and the danger of Versailles

Shortly after the 1918 armistice that ended the first world war, David Lloyd George, Britain’s prime minister, was thumpingly re-elected on the slogan “Hang the Kaiser”. Germany’s exiled Kaiser Wilhelm got off lightly. But the spirit of revenge that followed the “war to end all wars” held firm. The allies’ ensuing Treaty of Versailles sowed a peace that would poison all peace.

It may seem early to speculate about a Ukrainian deal with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, though talks have been taking place and draft peace proposals exchanged. Putin has a history of saying one thing and doing the opposite, which could prove lethally deceptive in Ukraine. Few believe Putin is ever likely to drop his ultimate ambition of swallowing Ukraine. Any deal, let alone a ceasefire, should thus be treated as a tactical pause.

Yet at some point, the west will have to talk to the enemy it has rather than the one it would like. That will mean doing some kind of a deal with Putin. The alternative — aiming for Russia’s unconditional surrender and the ejection of Putin — is a bet western leaders cannot afford to indulge. Given Putin’s barbarity, this may prove too much for western publics to digest, let alone the abused people of Ukraine.

Yet the lessons of Versailles are there. The mood in Washington and other western capitals is understandably punitive. In addition to the wanton slaughter of civilians, Russian artillery is levelling huge tracts of Ukraine. The cost may already be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. US president Joe Biden’s temptation will be to seize Russian central bank dollar assets in reparation for Ukraine’s damage. Biden would also find it politically very hard to lift sanctions while Putin remains in power. In 1919, the allied powers imposed crippling reparations on a defeated Germany, even though its war leaders had been ousted. It would be harder for today’s allies to resist imposing a Carthaginian peace on a Russia that is still run by Putin.

Biden’s challenge will thus be even trickier than what faced his predecessor, Woodrow Wilson. Unlike Germany in 1919, Russia has nuclear weapons and cannot be forced to surrender. The best definition of Russian defeat would be its withdrawal from the slices of Ukraine it has occupied. Even that would be a tall order. Ejecting Russia in whole would be hard for Ukraine to do alone. Yet direct western involvement is unthinkable. That means Ukraine could be forced to suffer months or even years of bloody stalemate.

Read more at Biden, Putin and the danger of Versailles | Financial Times

Corona disease: China extends Shanghai coronavirus lockdown as frustration mounts over strict "zero-COVID" policy

While most American cities are opening up and lifting COVID-19 restrictions, one of the biggest cities in the world has been shut back down. Shanghai, China's most populous city with some 25 million inhabitants, was largely at a standstill on Friday as China battles its worst wave of coronavirus infections since the start of the pandemic.

Read more at: China extends Shanghai coronavirus lockdown as frustration mounts over strict "zero-COVID" policy - CBS News

4/1/22

Russia weapons sales to Middle East in Doubt: Russia Now Has Little Hope Of Becoming A Major Middle East Arms Supplier

Russia intervened militarily in the Syrian civil war on the side of President Bashar al-Assad, whose regime was then on the defensive. Over the next few months, Russia gave a combat debut to several new weapons systems, striking targets across Syria and helping Assad's forces regain the offensive against his ragtag rebel opponents.

Russia seized the opportunity the conflict presented to showcase and put its military gear to the test. While the Russian expeditionary force based out of western Syria included Soviet-era workhorse aircraft like the Su-24 Fencer and Su-25 Frogfoot, it also featured sleek new planes like the Su-34 Fullback. Russian Tu-160 Blackjack strategic bombers that had never been in combat before flew long-range missions from Russia itself to bomb targets in Syria. In another demonstration of the Russian military's reach, Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from the Caspian Sea into Syria early in the conflict.

In January, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army, admitted that he was surprised "when Kalibr missiles came flying out of the Caspian Sea, hitting targets in Syria."

"That was a surprise to me, not only the capability, but I didn't even know they were there," he confessed.

Hodges called Syria a "live-fire training opportunity" for Russia’s military. This view was echoed by none other than Russian President Vladimir Putin, who described his Syrian campaign as "a more effective training for the country's military than drills."

While Saudi Arabia had agreed to buy the S-400 in 2017, it ultimately opted for the American THAAD system instead. Since talk of co-developing a fifth-generation fighter with Russia, the United States permitted UAE to buy 50 fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II jets in late 2020. While Abu Dhabi has suspended talks on that landmark deal that doesn’t mean it will turn to Russia for an alternative. It also remains to be seen if Russia can even fully develop either the Su-75 or the Su-57. In the meantime, the UAE seems content with its multi-billion-dollar order for 80 highly-formidable 4.5-generation French Dassault Rafale F4 jets it signed in late 2021.

In 2018, Egypt ordered a fleet of Su-35s, running the risk of incurring CAATSA sanctions. Egypt made that order since the United States had refused for decades to sell it either advanced long-range air-to-air missiles or heavyweight air superiority fighters. However, Egypt is reportedly unhappy with its purchase. For one, the Su-35s Russia built for it lack Actively Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar. Furthermore, Egypt found that the electronic countermeasures of its Rafale jets swiftly overpowered the Su-35's Irbis-E radar. Now, Washington seems willing to finally sell Cairo F-15s for the first time, which would completely negate its need for Su-35s.


Not only will Russia find it much harder to sell new weapons systems, but it will also find it challenging to provide maintenance for and supply spare parts to present operators of Russian hardware. This could make even long-time Russian arms clients, such as Algeria, reconsider their options going forward.

"I do think many countries that have these legacy Russian systems will be worried – not only worried about buying new fancy systems like the S-400, but we're just talking ammunition, spare parts, basic supplies for Russian legacy systems that they already have," Donald Lu, assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian Affairs, told a Senate Foreign Relations subpanel in early March.

All these difficulties, obstacles, and uncertainties will most likely lead more countries in the Middle East, like most other parts of the world, to conclude that going into the arms business with Russia is more trouble than its worth.

Read more at: Russia Now Has Little Hope Of Becoming A Major Middle East Arms Supplier

Middle East versus Ukraine: Many in Mideast see hypocrisy in Western embrace of Ukraine

Within days of the Russian invasion, Western countries invoked international law, imposed crippling sanctions, began welcoming refugees with open arms and cheered on Ukraine’s armed resistance.

The response has elicited outrage across the Middle East, where many see a glaring double standard in how the West responds to international conflicts.

Read more at: Many in Mideast see hypocrisy in Western embrace of Ukraine | AP News

Russian Invasion of Ukraine:: Several EU countries expel Russian diplomats over alleged spying

EU countries Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland and the Czech Republic on Tuesday announced the expulsion of dozens of Russian diplomats suspected of spying, in coordinated action taken in the shadow of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Russia said it would respond in kind.

Belgian Foreign Minister Sophie Wilmes said her country was kicking out 21 diplomats from Russia’s embassy in Brussels and consulate in Antwerp, giving them two weeks to leave.

She said the move was made in conjunction with the neighbouring Netherlands, whose foreign ministry said it was expelling 17 Russian diplomats considered “secretly active” as intelligence officers.

Ireland’s Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said four “senior officials” from Russia’s embassy in Dublin had been told to leave for engaging in activities “not... in accordance with international standards of diplomatic behaviour” – code for spying.

“Together with our Allies, we are reducing the Russian intelligence presence in the EU,” the Czech foreign ministry tweeted.

Read more at: Several EU countries expel Russian diplomats over alleged spying

Ukraine Invasion by Russia: Norway prime minister spoke with Russia's Putin on Thursday

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere had an hour-long conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday in which the two discussed the invasion of Ukraine, the Norwegian prime minister’s office said in a statement.

Read more at: Norway prime minister spoke with Russia's Putin on Thursday | Reuters