Ireland will vote soon and is likely to say ‘Yes’ to Europe

Sometime today we will learn when Europe’s new Fiscal Union treaty is going to be given its first, and probably only, contact with direct democracy.

The Irish Government will announce the date of their referendum, probably for sometime in May or June.

It is a vote that will have far more impact on Ireland than it will on the rest of Europe.
For once the Irish cannot stop this treaty. David Cameron made sure of that by saying that it couldn’t be an EU treaty at all, and therefore the usual rules of unanimity do not apply.

But if the Irish vote 'No', there will be a different kind of veto - a veto on the Republic ever being given another European bailout. From that moment on, Dublin would be on its own, at the mercy of the markets for any money it might need to borrow.

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