Syria’s Collapse Would Reverberate in Mideast

If Assad’s regime is toppled, the ensuing power struggle might bring with it revenge killings by or against his minority Shiite Alawite sect, which controls the military and the economy, said Aaron David Miller, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington.

Assad’s closest allies, Iran and Russia, would be the likely losers if power shifts to Assad’s rivals. Lebanon, Jordan and Israel would benefit if Syria’s new leadership ceases to provide a conduit for arms and assistance from Iran to terrorist groups in Lebanon and along the Israeli border, officials and analysts said. 

Whoever the winners, the major concern is, “When is the retribution going to come?” Miller said.
Many Sunnis will want to take revenge against Alawites and Christians who backed Assad, said David Schenker, director of the program on Arab politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“You can have a violent and bloody situation at home that creates continued refugee flows into Jordan and Turkey, and instability and sectarian tension in Lebanon,” where the Shiite Hezbollah militia, long backed by Syria and Iran, will face an emboldened Sunni and Christian population.

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