British politics is hardening. The post-conference opinion polling reported by the Guardian on Monday shows a strengthening in Labour and Tory numbers – both overall, and in terms of determination to vote. To the extent that this is a national snapshot, the nation is falling out of love with the idea of coalition.
This is cheering for Ed Miliband and his decision to take on the energy companies – polarising, provocative "socialism" that the country seems to rather like. But the new dynamic offers Miliband the biggest tactical dilemma of his life. His answer could define British politics for years ahead – and it's got nothing to do with the cost of living, one nation or hard-working people. It's about Europe.
The return to left-right politics, which squeezes the Lib Dems, leaves the Tories still facing their biggest problem: Ukip. Nigel Farage's party is as much an angry annexe of the Conservative family as a new phenomenon. Combined with unreformed constituency boundaries, Ukip voting in 2015 is still likely to rob Cameron of any chance of an overall majority. If Miliband continues to radiate an unnatural sense of calm, Ukip is an important part of the cause.
Yet there is one argument that could yet save Cameron's bacon and deliver a Conservative majority, and it's a simple one, which won't gain full currency until after next year's European elections: "Vote Ukip, get Labour" (because splitting the Tory vote would let Labour in). Rightwing voters are desperate for a European referendum but are bitterly hostile to Miliband; so the Tory message that if you want a referendum, you must vote Conservative will have a lot of resonance. So far Labour is talking about a referendum only if there is a major transfer of powers to Europe. But could that change?
Of all the big tactical plays ahead, this is the big one. You haven't heard much about it yet, but this is a very hot issue wherever key Labour people get together in private. The influential backbencher Tom Watson said recently on television that he might support the Tory rebels' call for an early referendum. He is not alone.
Read more: An early EU referendum is so tempting – but Miliband must not be moved | Jackie Ashley | Comment is free | The Guardian
This is cheering for Ed Miliband and his decision to take on the energy companies – polarising, provocative "socialism" that the country seems to rather like. But the new dynamic offers Miliband the biggest tactical dilemma of his life. His answer could define British politics for years ahead – and it's got nothing to do with the cost of living, one nation or hard-working people. It's about Europe.
The return to left-right politics, which squeezes the Lib Dems, leaves the Tories still facing their biggest problem: Ukip. Nigel Farage's party is as much an angry annexe of the Conservative family as a new phenomenon. Combined with unreformed constituency boundaries, Ukip voting in 2015 is still likely to rob Cameron of any chance of an overall majority. If Miliband continues to radiate an unnatural sense of calm, Ukip is an important part of the cause.
Yet there is one argument that could yet save Cameron's bacon and deliver a Conservative majority, and it's a simple one, which won't gain full currency until after next year's European elections: "Vote Ukip, get Labour" (because splitting the Tory vote would let Labour in). Rightwing voters are desperate for a European referendum but are bitterly hostile to Miliband; so the Tory message that if you want a referendum, you must vote Conservative will have a lot of resonance. So far Labour is talking about a referendum only if there is a major transfer of powers to Europe. But could that change?
Of all the big tactical plays ahead, this is the big one. You haven't heard much about it yet, but this is a very hot issue wherever key Labour people get together in private. The influential backbencher Tom Watson said recently on television that he might support the Tory rebels' call for an early referendum. He is not alone.
Read more: An early EU referendum is so tempting – but Miliband must not be moved | Jackie Ashley | Comment is free | The Guardian
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