Insurance Industry: Autonomous cars could drive auto insurance to extinction - by Scott Mclaren

Autonomous cars on future roads could end the need for insurance

In a 2015 interview, Elon Musk pointed out that recent advances in auto technology could lead to human-operated vehicles becoming illegal someday.

While this may seem ludicrous to some, it could play out sooner than you think. By 2025 — just a few short years away — the auto industry’s autonomous segment is projected to reach a worth of $26 billion, according to insights from Bain & Company. Some estimates even project as many as 10 million self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020.

Musk’s prediction that human-controlled vehicles could be outlawed comes from not only an increase in autonomous options, but also for one simple reason: safety. It’s hard to imagine tech operation being safer than human operation, but vehicle safety statistics point to driver error as one of the top causes of auto accidents. In fact, more than 3,000 people were killed and 431,000 injured from distracted driving in 2014 alone, with contributing factors including cell phone usage, fatigue, aggressive driving, and running red lights. Although it’s far too early for statistical comparison, it’s fair to say that autonomous vehicles will face far fewer variables and will have greater predictability in certain driving situations.

Without driver error, will we need insurance at all?

In theory, removing human error from the roads means fewer accidents — which would also remove the need for private insurance that covers damage caused by drivers. In tandem, these two changes would lower accident liabilities and, theoretically, cause a huge drop in personal auto insurance premiums.

As it stands, auto insurers offer rates based on individual driving histories, and can even optimize each policy’s pricing via driver-approved telematics. As the insurance industry adapts to new technology saturating the market — turning drivers into mere passengers — the liability for accidents caused by autonomous vehicles could be handed off to the manufacturer, software designer, or even the government through the Department of Transportation. “

At least the current thinking is that the manufacturers will be ultimately responsible for a lot of these future accidents when an automated vehicle is involved,” said Rick Gorvett of the Casualty Actuarial Society.

But the Insurance Information Institute’s Michael Barry doesn’t think these changes will wipe out owner responsibility in total. Barry pointed out that driver error isn’t the only danger to vehicles, and owners and insurance companies will still have to factor in off-road damages that may occur. “Cars can still get flooded, damaged, or stolen,” he said, “but this technology will have a dramatic impact on underwriting. A lot of traditional underwriting criteria will beupended.

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