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1/29/18

USA: The State of The Union Address: It will include all of Trump’s familiar flaws: Overselling and in the end underperforming -

Second-Hand Car Salesman in  Chief
When everything is “the greatest,” “fantastic,” “never been done before” and “the best,” modest results look like a flop. And that’s the downfall of a used-car salesman who cannot leave town before his customers realize they bought a lemon, not a Lamborghini.

When President Trump in his pre-White House days sold chewy, overpriced steak, mediocre vodka in pretty bottles or unmemorable chocolate at high prices, customers just didn’t come back for more (and the businesses failed).

When his much-hyped casinos bombed, they declared bankruptcy, and he walked away. As president, however, he has to (or does he?) stick around for four years and be judged on results. And that’s a problem for a president who promised the most fabulous health care, tremendous trade deals and so much winning that you’d get “tired” of winning.

Trump and his advisers have suggested we could get to 4, 5 (do I hear 6?) percent growth. No semi-respectable economist buys that. And in truth, as fiscally irresponsible as the tax bill may be, it is unlikely to provide enough of an economic jolt to change the trajectory of the economy over the long haul.

We continue to have modest growth. Trump has not and is not likely to pursue policies that would address the underlying causes of sluggish growth (stagnant productivity) or pursue pro-growth policies in a systematic way (e.g. increase immigration, expand free-trade zones, make substantial investments in worker training and education). In other words, we’ve been promised champagne but should get ready for flat ginger ale.

So dear US voters, when Trump addresses the Nation on Tuesday night, please don't let him fool you. Just about all what he will be saying you can safely take with a grain of salt.

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