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2/29/20

The EU and China in 2020: More Competition Ahead - by Erik Brattberg and Philippe Le Corre

Reflecting the general mood of the BDI paper, the most significant update of the EU’s own thinking on China came on March 12, 2019, when the European Commission and the European External Action Service jointly put out a strategic reflection paper. This paper was striking for at least two main reasons.

First was the speed and unusual way by which it came about. The process was driven by outgoing European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who teamed up with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron in an effort to beef up the EU’s common position on China ahead of crucial meetings that year. Even more striking was its bluntness, which is rare in official EU documents. For example, a key sentence referred to China as “a negotiating partner with whom the EU needs to find a balance of interests, an economic competitor in the pursuit of technological leadership and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance.

The unprecedented use of the term “systemic rival” reflected growing impatience in EU circles with China’s failure to open its markets to European companies in key sectors. The paper called for a “flexible and pragmatic whole-of-EU response” and greater European access to the Chinese market. It concluded with ten action items that the European Council quickly endorsed. The significance of the strategic outlook on China should not be underestimated. Its timing and strong language helped give the EU concrete leverage when dealing with China during a crucial stage, while avoiding having to resort to confrontation or containment. The message was not lost on Beijing, which quickly drew the conclusion that it could no longer take the soft European position for granted. Beijing had to redouble its efforts to fulfill at least some of its commitments lest Brussels follow Washington in taking a more stringent approach.

Immediately after the strategic outlook paper was released, Juncker, Merkel, and Macron met jointly with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Paris on March 25, 2019. By extending an invitation to the German chancellor and the head of the commission to attend the meeting with Xi, Macron signaled that he wanted to build a core coalition within the EU to gain leverage over Beijing. During the meeting, Macron and Xi released a joint statement calling on Europe and China to work together in a number of areas, such as the economy, global governance, and climate. However, Macron also cited frank discussions with his Chinese counterpart on human rights issues. Xi’s visit to Europe included time in Italy where the two countries agreed on a memorandum of understanding on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This represented a major symbolic win for Beijing, as Italy was the first G7 nation to endorse China’s flagship infrastructure initiative.  

The EU and China in 2020: More Competition Ahead - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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