The Netherlands: What the Dutch elections are all about … and what they’re not about - by Cas Mudde

Mark Rutte benefiting  from his brawl with Erdogan?

The Dutch parliamentary elections are tomorrow and, like most Dutch political scientists, I cannot wait for them to be over. Never before have Dutch elections been so intensely followed by the international media and I am, honestly, tired of having to answer another question about “the Dutch Trump” (Geert Wilders) or “the Dutch Trudeau” (Jesse Klaver). Obviously, the international media are not really interested in Dutch politics. Rather, they have declared the Netherlands to be the bellwether of European politics. Never mind that the country has a fairly specific political culture, and party politics has changed from ultra-stable in the 20th century to ultra-volatile in the 21st century, the Netherlands is Europe’s future.

Given that the Dutch elections are covered in the same frame as the British EU referendum and the US presidential elections, and are the first of a series of similar elections in Europe, much of what is truly at stake is missed. Moreover, much of what is focused on is secondary at best and irrelevant at worst. So, what is (not) at stake tomorrow?

1 These are not “winner takes all” elections

2 The Dutch are not voting on the European Union

3 The Dutch are not electing a president

International media style the Dutch elections as a “neck-and-neck race” between conservative prime minister Mark Rutte of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and radical-right challenger Wilders, to fit the broader frame of status quo versus populism. Understandably, Rutte has tried to push this idea on the Dutch media too, positioning himself as the only democratic hope to stave off a populist victory. But however convenient it is for selling newspapers or for Rutte, this formula is inconsistent with the essence of the elections. The Dutch are electing a parliament, not a president or premier, and it is not guaranteed that the leader of the biggest party will be the premier. In a parliamentary system the government needs the support of the parliamentary majority, not necessarily of the biggest party. Moreover, the struggle between Rutte and Wilders captures only a minority of the voters: together the VVD and PVV are only polling between 30 and 35%. In other words, the real story is somewhere else.

4 The Dutch are uninspired …

The most stunning number regarding the Dutch elections is that, four days before election day, a majority of the population (54%) did not yet know for which party they were going to vote.

5 … (partly) because the parties discuss the wrong issues

Since the beginning of the 21st century Dutch political campaigns have been dominated by the “three Is” – immigration, integration and Islam – and this year is no different.

In fact, voters are being beaten around the head with those issues on the campaign trail, even if few concrete solutions are offered, at the expense of some of the basic bread-and-butter issues that are actually concerning the majority of population: economic inequality, education, healthcare, and protection of the welfare state.

Note EU-Digest: Unfortunately the Turkey-Holland  brawl has not helped the candidates on the left in this Dutch election, who have hammered on more and real pressing problems, like economic inequality, education, healthcare, and protection of the welfare state on a sure footing, to the contrary. 

So basically, if there are no major surprises it unfortunately could turn out to be business as usual in Holland with Mark Rutte benefiting from the weekend crises with Turkey?

Read more: What the Dutch elections are all about … and what they’re not about | Cas Mudde | Opinion | The Guard

Netherlands Election: politics back to the center and pro-Europe - Wilders ends up biggest loser

Mark Rutte of the VVD

The votes have been counted and it is nearly certain that the Liberal VVD of Mark Rutte ( 41 seats) and the Center left  PVDA of Diederik Samson (39 seat)  will now be the face of the Dutch political environment for the years to come.  

This means it's back to the center for politics in Netherlands.  Yesterday the voters in the Netherlands backed two pro-European centrist parties in large numbers, while the Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant Freedom Party ( PVV) of right wing populist Geert Wilders ended up as the biggest loser of this election. His party dropping from 24 to 15 seats in Parliament. Also the Christian Democrats continued to loose support..

Diederik Samson of the PVDA

Diederik Samson, who has advocated spending on job-creation programs, indicated he would bargain hard in coalition talks.  "Nobody knows exactly what will happen tomorrow, but one thing is certain. The course can be changed. The course must be changed because the right-wing policies of the past two years cannot continue," he said.

Mr Samsom's approach has been broadly seen as a nod to the policies of France's recently elected Socialist President, Francois Hollande, who wants to increase spending and raise taxes on the rich.

Mr Rutte's policy echoes German Chancellor Angel Merkel's plans of strictly adhering to austerity measures that are designed to force down the country's deficit.

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Dutch Elections: PM Rutte's Liberals slightly ahead in exit poll but Samson's PVDA can still win.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals are one seat ahead of the opposition Labour Party in a closely contested election, an exit poll after Wednesday's vote showed.

The two pro-European parties, Liberals and Labour, had 41 and 40 seats respectively out of a total of 150 seats in parliament, the exit poll by Dutch broadcaster NOS/RTL showed.

It seems however that the Labour party of Diederik Samson could still win if the predicted results in the Netherland's  large cities hold true. 

EU-Digest

Dutch voters seen shunning euro radicals in election - by Sara Webb and Gilbert Kreijger

Diederik Samson

Mainstream pro-European parties look set to dominate the Dutch parliamentary election on Wednesday, dispelling concerns that radical eurosceptics might gain sway in a core euro zone country and push to quit the European Union or flout its budget rules.

But the Netherlands is likely to remain an awkward, tough-talking member of the single currency area, strongly resisting transfers to euro zone debtors, regardless of whether caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals or the centre-left Labour Party of Diederik Samsom win the most seats.

Opinion polls on Tuesday showed the Liberals and Labour on 36 seats each or the Liberals fractionally in front, with the hard-left Socialists and the far-right anti-immigration Freedom Party fading in third and fourth place respectively.

Read more: Dutch voters seen shunning euro radicals in election - chicagotribune.com

The Netherlands Elections: If left wing parties fail to support Samson's PVDA and splinter the vote experts believe Rutte poised for second term as PM

Dutch caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte is expected to once again form a coalition government after the general elections in the Netherlands on Wednesday (12 September), experts predict.

However, the outcome of the election is still highly uncertain as many voters remain undecided.

After an election campaign focused on the economy, the Netherlands' relationship with the EU, the eurozone crisis and health care, Rutte's liberal party VVD is supposedly  leading the polls with 35 seats in the 150-seat parliament even though a Saturday night poll put him in a draw with Samson's PVDA at 35 versus 35.

Some political experts now even foresee a new Dutch government consisting of Rutte's VVD, Samson's PvdA, Rutte's previous coalition ally the Christian Democratic party (CDA) and the social-liberal party D66.

If Mr. Roemers is smart and wants to be part of a center-left coalition he should urge his supporters to give their vote to Samson's PVDA,  Tomorrow's election results will show if Roemers has had the savvy to do so or wants to remain in the opposition for the coming 4-8 years together with Geert Wilders PVV.

EU-Digest

The Netherlands: Dutch Labour leader Samson seen as new PM and "would be every mothers favorite son in law"

Diederik Samson

Dutch Labour leader Diederik Samson handed out roses and promised a new Europe as he campaigned Saturday to achieve what seemed impossible just weeks ago: become the Netherlands' next prime minister.

"The Netherlands needs a party that understands that it's only with a properly functioning Europe that the Netherlands can function, only with a Europe that grows can the Netherlands have growth," Samson told voters on the canal-lined streets of Utrecht ahead of Wednesday's election.

Red-clad activists from Samson's centre-left Labour (PvdA) party and shoppers applauded the call to redefine the European Union's role.

Samson, has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the polls that has surprised voters and analysts in the eurozone's fifth largest economy.

With his broad grin and shaved head and wearing a shirt without a tie, Samson tells his followers to believe in "the strength of the Netherlands".

"We have to build the future, we have to build a more social Netherlands, it's still possible!" said the politician dubbed the "comeback-kid" of Dutch politics.

While the Dutch economy grew by 0.2 percent in the second quarter compared to the first, the country's Central Statistics Bureau warned that "the Netherlands still finds itself in a period of poor economic conditions."

Samson, 41, only took over the Labour party in March, a month before the ruling coalition led by the Liberal VVD collapsed.

He has risen steadily in the polls over the last two weeks and is now seriously being seen as a contender for the prime minister's post.

He has positioned his leftist party towards the centre to battle the sovereign debt crisis shaking the eurozone, arguing for targetted stimulus measures to kick-start growth. "Just making savings will not solve the crisis and investing without thinking will only make it worse," Samson said in Utrecht.

Instead, he offered a middle-of-the road alternative to austerity-driven VDD leader and current Prime Minister Mark Rutte on the one hand, and the hard-left Socialist Party leader Emile Roemer on the other.
Latest opinion polls suggest Samson's PvdA will win 32 seats in the 150-seat lower house, and the VDD 33.

Whichever party wins most votes gets the prime minister's job and the right to form a ruling coalition. On Saturday night, Dutch public broadcaster NOS, on its website, put both parties at 35 seats in their "political barometer". When voters were asked "who do you want to be prime minister if you can choose between right winger Mark Rutte and Diederik Samson?" 42 percent of respondents chose Rutte, while 47 percent chose Samson.

The party that wins Wednesday's elections will be in charge of forming a new coalition government in the 150-seat lower house, and a new prime minister is chosen from its ranks -- usually the party leader.

The intelligent and personable Diederik Samson who has served in parliament since 2003, and his ability to perform well on television should not have come as a surprise, as he has been a serial victor on celebrity television quiz programs. In 2005 and 2006 he won "The National News Quiz," in 2008 he won "The National IQ Test" and the same year he won "The Big History Quiz." His wife reportedly told him he had proved his point and should stop competing.

Samson may also be benefiting from what voters don't know about him. He studied Nuclear Physics at the prestigious Dutch Delft University. Is married and has two children. Before entering politics, he worked for Greenpeace, where he was arrested several times, though he does not have a criminal record. An elderly lady who watched him on TV said about Samson, "he would be every mothers favorite son in law".

EU-Digest

Dutch Socialist leader Emile Roemer Warns on Austerity - by Maarten van Tartwijk

The front-runner ahead of next month's Dutch general elections warned Sunday that a single-minded focus on austerity is crippling the country's economy and could unravel the euro zone.
"I can't say if we will be able to maintain the euro. The European economy is hurting too much from austerity," Emile Roemer told reporters at the launch of his Socialist Party's election campaign.

Mr. Roemer partly blamed the current problems on flaws in the euro zone's design and said "technocrats" have gained power at the expense of voters. He also said struggling countries in southern Europe should be allowed more leeway.

"Europe should be about people, not about multinationals and the financial sector," he said.
Mr. Roemer's party has benefited from growing voter resentment toward the German-led austerity drive and euro-zone bailouts. Some polls give it a clear lead over the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

For more: Dutch Far-Left Leader Warns on Austerity - WSJ.com