Last week, a railway job recruitment drive in India's northern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh turned violent, as groups protesting mass unemployment blocked roads and railway lines.
Protester Navin Kumar Jha, 28, told DW he was among 10 million applicants for roughly 36,000 total jobs being offered.
"The authorities had to finally suspend the recruitment. We wanted to draw attention to joblessness that is worsening in the country," Jha said.
Read more at:
COVID: India′s economy battles widespread unemployment, inflation | Asia | An in-depth look at news from across the continent | DW | 31.01.2022
Showing posts with label Economic decline. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economic decline. Show all posts
5/22/18
TURKEY - Erdogan Driving Turkey Over The Cliff: Why Investors Have Become Skittish About Turkey
For the better part of 16 years, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a
"self-styled economic reformer", and the world’s great hope for Muslim
democracy, had a compelling story—and for most of that time, everyone bought it. Everyone, that is, except Turkey’s old guard—the secular
establishment, the billionaires, generals, and educated elites who stood
to lose their monopoly on power, wealth, and influence.
Now, however, it looks like Turks got more than they bargained forAfter a run that brought in more than $220 billion of foreign investment, tripled gross domestic product, and returned inflation to single digits, Turkey’s economy is again ailing—its democracy even more so.
With the nation heading to snap elections on June 24, the lira is sinking, inflation is running at double the central bank’s target, and companies are struggling under more than $300 billion in foreign debt.
Turkey’s ranking on nearly every index of democratic governance has plunged. There’s no longer talk of a peace process with Kurdish separatists.
Buoyed by a seeming imperviousness at the polls, Erdogan has become ever more autocratic, his style of leadership more personal, prickly, and intolerant.
He has ruled using emergency law since a failed military coup in the summer of 2016, jailing more journalists than any country in the world and widening censorship powers to include the internet.
If people don't wake up in time to the fact that Erdogan is driving Turkey over the cliff and vote him out of power - it could mean this beautiful country will be going in na tailspin towards certain disaster.
READ MORE: Why Investors Have Become Skittish About Turkey - Bloomberg
Now, however, it looks like Turks got more than they bargained forAfter a run that brought in more than $220 billion of foreign investment, tripled gross domestic product, and returned inflation to single digits, Turkey’s economy is again ailing—its democracy even more so.
With the nation heading to snap elections on June 24, the lira is sinking, inflation is running at double the central bank’s target, and companies are struggling under more than $300 billion in foreign debt.
Turkey’s ranking on nearly every index of democratic governance has plunged. There’s no longer talk of a peace process with Kurdish separatists.
Buoyed by a seeming imperviousness at the polls, Erdogan has become ever more autocratic, his style of leadership more personal, prickly, and intolerant.
He has ruled using emergency law since a failed military coup in the summer of 2016, jailing more journalists than any country in the world and widening censorship powers to include the internet.
If people don't wake up in time to the fact that Erdogan is driving Turkey over the cliff and vote him out of power - it could mean this beautiful country will be going in na tailspin towards certain disaster.
READ MORE: Why Investors Have Become Skittish About Turkey - Bloomberg
10/11/16
US Economy: U.S. Economic Growth Downgraded to Largest 1-Year Drop - by Ali Meyer
The International Monetary Fund downgraded the economic growth outlook for the United States to 1.6 percent in 2016, which is the largest one-year drop seen for an advanced economy, according to the Fund’s World Economic Outlook report.
According to the report, the United States grew at a rate of 2.6 percent in 2015 and is projected to slow to 1.6 percent in 2016, a decline of 38 percent. The United States’ decline in growth is the largest one-year drop seen in all of the advanced economies such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, and Spain.
“Softer-than-expected activity in the second half of 2015 and the first half of 2016 points to some loss in momentum in the United States, despite a mildly supportive fiscal stance and a slower projected pace of monetary policy normalization,” the International Monetary Fund explains. “A prolonged inventory correction cycle and weak business investment has prompted a downward revision of the 2016 forecast to 1.6 percent.”
The group projects that the economy will grow to 2.2 percent by 2017, but medium term growth will be held down at 1.8 percent due to an aging population and low productivity growth.
“The weakness in business fixed investment appears to reflect the continued (albeit moderating) decline in capital spending in the energy sector, the impact of recent dollar strength on investment in export-oriented industries, and possibly also the financial market volatility and recession fears of late 2015 and early 2016,” the report says.
According to the International Monetary Fund, advanced economies are still feeling the effects of the global financial crisis. While progress has been made, the progress has been “uneven” and “crisis scars” are still visible in some countries.
For example, the group notes that the recovery in the United States is overstated by the decline in the unemployment rate.
“In some counties (such as the United States) the decline in unemployment to pre-crisis levels somewhat overstates the recovery in employment, given the decline in labor force participation,” the report states. “This has not, however, been the case in other advanced economies, where in many cases participation rates are above pre-crisis levels.”
Weaker-than-expected growth in the United States is one of the reasons why the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections. The group projected that global growth would slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 after growing 3.2 percent in 2015, citing the U.S. growth forecast as well as the Brexit vote.
Read more: U.S. Economic Growth Downgraded to Largest 1-Year Drop
According to the report, the United States grew at a rate of 2.6 percent in 2015 and is projected to slow to 1.6 percent in 2016, a decline of 38 percent. The United States’ decline in growth is the largest one-year drop seen in all of the advanced economies such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, and Spain.
“Softer-than-expected activity in the second half of 2015 and the first half of 2016 points to some loss in momentum in the United States, despite a mildly supportive fiscal stance and a slower projected pace of monetary policy normalization,” the International Monetary Fund explains. “A prolonged inventory correction cycle and weak business investment has prompted a downward revision of the 2016 forecast to 1.6 percent.”
The group projects that the economy will grow to 2.2 percent by 2017, but medium term growth will be held down at 1.8 percent due to an aging population and low productivity growth.
“The weakness in business fixed investment appears to reflect the continued (albeit moderating) decline in capital spending in the energy sector, the impact of recent dollar strength on investment in export-oriented industries, and possibly also the financial market volatility and recession fears of late 2015 and early 2016,” the report says.
According to the International Monetary Fund, advanced economies are still feeling the effects of the global financial crisis. While progress has been made, the progress has been “uneven” and “crisis scars” are still visible in some countries.
For example, the group notes that the recovery in the United States is overstated by the decline in the unemployment rate.
“In some counties (such as the United States) the decline in unemployment to pre-crisis levels somewhat overstates the recovery in employment, given the decline in labor force participation,” the report states. “This has not, however, been the case in other advanced economies, where in many cases participation rates are above pre-crisis levels.”
Weaker-than-expected growth in the United States is one of the reasons why the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth projections. The group projected that global growth would slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 after growing 3.2 percent in 2015, citing the U.S. growth forecast as well as the Brexit vote.
Read more: U.S. Economic Growth Downgraded to Largest 1-Year Drop
2/25/16
EU: End to Schengen could mean a dramatic decline in growth for Europe - by Dr. Ulrich Schoof
A permanent reinstatement of internal border controls would have a
dramatic effect on economic growth throughout Europe, causing a
noticeable decline in prosperity. For Germany alone, lower growth might
be expected to produce cumulated losses of at least 77 billion euros
between 2016 and 2025.
In a more pessimistic scenario, losses could amount to as much as 235 billion euros. For the EU as a whole, they would be likely to reach 470 billion. If Schengen were to collapse, moreover, the negative economic effects would be felt even outside of Europe. These are the findings of a recent study conducted by Prognos AG on behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung.
Reinstating border checks would result in higher costs and prices, which would have a negative impact on Europe's economic growth. Even in an optimistic scenario, which assumes that the price of goods imported from other European countries would rise by only a moderate one percent, growth would decline substantially.
Based on conservative assumptions, Germany's weaker growth would produce losses of up to 77 billion euros over the ten-year period from 2016 to 2025. France's cumulative losses would amount to 80.5 billion euros. Over ten years, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Europe as a whole would drop by some 470 billion euros. A more pessimistic scenario assumes that the price of imports would increase by three percent. Cumulated GDP losses would then total 235 billion euros in Germany, 244 billion euros in France and 1.4 trillion euros in the EU.
Read more: End to Schengen could mean a dramatic decline in growth for Europe
In a more pessimistic scenario, losses could amount to as much as 235 billion euros. For the EU as a whole, they would be likely to reach 470 billion. If Schengen were to collapse, moreover, the negative economic effects would be felt even outside of Europe. These are the findings of a recent study conducted by Prognos AG on behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung.
Reinstating border checks would result in higher costs and prices, which would have a negative impact on Europe's economic growth. Even in an optimistic scenario, which assumes that the price of goods imported from other European countries would rise by only a moderate one percent, growth would decline substantially.
Based on conservative assumptions, Germany's weaker growth would produce losses of up to 77 billion euros over the ten-year period from 2016 to 2025. France's cumulative losses would amount to 80.5 billion euros. Over ten years, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Europe as a whole would drop by some 470 billion euros. A more pessimistic scenario assumes that the price of imports would increase by three percent. Cumulated GDP losses would then total 235 billion euros in Germany, 244 billion euros in France and 1.4 trillion euros in the EU.
Read more: End to Schengen could mean a dramatic decline in growth for Europe
11/3/15
Turkey: How Will the EU Deal With Postelection Turkey? - by Marc Pierini
Turkey’s legislative election on November 1 took place in an extremely tense atmosphere.
On the one hand, this was due to internal factors: the country’s rule of law architecture was being dismantled, political narratives were extremely polarized, a spiral of violence and repression had engulfed Turkey’s southeast, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was fighting for continued supremacy, and parties had uneven access to the media.
On the other hand, Turkey also faced external difficulties: the AKP’s Middle East policy was challenged on all fronts, the Syrian Kurds were on the rise politically and militarily, Russia’s intervention was continuing in Syria, and the refugee crisis was showing no signs of abating.
For the AKP, the good news is that its victory was clear-cut: having secured 4.5 million more votes than in the previous election on June 7, the party won an overall majority of seats in the Turkish parliament and will form a government on its own. A preference for governmental stability has prevailed. In the short term, this will spare the country several weeks of coalition haggling.
For the president, the less good news is that the AKP remains short of the three-fifths majority of 330 seats that would allow it to submit to a referendum a constitutional amendment introducing an executive presidential regime. The country is split in two on this subject. And it is not clear that the AKP itself is as one on the president’s project.
For Turkey’s democracy, the worse news is that the election results were obtained at a very high price: an endless, harsh clampdown on the media (including after the polls), an extremely polarizing narrative, and an all-out demonization of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which is now the third party in the parliament. These are wounds that will be long in healing. The next prime minister will have the daunting task of piecing together a deeply divided country.
Restoring domestic peace and harmony would require drastic changes to Turkey’s political narratives, a rapid return to the rule of law, and a willingness to genuinely accept the country’s social and political diversity.
Seen from Brussels, what Turkey needs is a return to normal governmental operations after five months of political vacuum. Long considered a rare case of Muslim democracy and an example of successful economic transformation, Turkey has lost a huge part of its international prestige during the past two years. With its neighborhood on fire and its economy in a sharp slowdown, and on the eve of the G20 summit it will host on November 15–16, Turkey urgently needs to go back to a more serene relationship with its European and U.S. allies.
The EU has saluted the AKP’s victory with prudence. The EU is now waiting to see if, under a confident leadership and with no more elections for nearly four years, Turkey will make a constructive contribution to the international arena and restore harmony and freedoms on the domestic scene. These could be the benefits of the AKP’s spectacular November 1 victory. But at this stage, that remains a wide open question.
Read more: How Will the EU Deal With Postelection Turkey? - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
On the one hand, this was due to internal factors: the country’s rule of law architecture was being dismantled, political narratives were extremely polarized, a spiral of violence and repression had engulfed Turkey’s southeast, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was fighting for continued supremacy, and parties had uneven access to the media.
On the other hand, Turkey also faced external difficulties: the AKP’s Middle East policy was challenged on all fronts, the Syrian Kurds were on the rise politically and militarily, Russia’s intervention was continuing in Syria, and the refugee crisis was showing no signs of abating.
For the AKP, the good news is that its victory was clear-cut: having secured 4.5 million more votes than in the previous election on June 7, the party won an overall majority of seats in the Turkish parliament and will form a government on its own. A preference for governmental stability has prevailed. In the short term, this will spare the country several weeks of coalition haggling.
For the president, the less good news is that the AKP remains short of the three-fifths majority of 330 seats that would allow it to submit to a referendum a constitutional amendment introducing an executive presidential regime. The country is split in two on this subject. And it is not clear that the AKP itself is as one on the president’s project.
For Turkey’s democracy, the worse news is that the election results were obtained at a very high price: an endless, harsh clampdown on the media (including after the polls), an extremely polarizing narrative, and an all-out demonization of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which is now the third party in the parliament. These are wounds that will be long in healing. The next prime minister will have the daunting task of piecing together a deeply divided country.
Restoring domestic peace and harmony would require drastic changes to Turkey’s political narratives, a rapid return to the rule of law, and a willingness to genuinely accept the country’s social and political diversity.
Seen from Brussels, what Turkey needs is a return to normal governmental operations after five months of political vacuum. Long considered a rare case of Muslim democracy and an example of successful economic transformation, Turkey has lost a huge part of its international prestige during the past two years. With its neighborhood on fire and its economy in a sharp slowdown, and on the eve of the G20 summit it will host on November 15–16, Turkey urgently needs to go back to a more serene relationship with its European and U.S. allies.
The EU has saluted the AKP’s victory with prudence. The EU is now waiting to see if, under a confident leadership and with no more elections for nearly four years, Turkey will make a constructive contribution to the international arena and restore harmony and freedoms on the domestic scene. These could be the benefits of the AKP’s spectacular November 1 victory. But at this stage, that remains a wide open question.
Read more: How Will the EU Deal With Postelection Turkey? - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
5/6/15
US Economy: March’s trade gap drags US economy down into the red
The US trade gap has jumped to its
highest level in six years after imports surged following the end of a
ports dispute on the west coast.
The trade deficit jumped by so much, 43%, that it suggests the US economy contracted in the first quarter. Several analysts have speculated Q1 will be poor because of bad weather. It was the biggest percentage rise since 1996.
Prices for U.S. Treasuries turned positive after the data, while U.S. stock index futures added to losses. The dollar was slightly weaker against a basket of currencies.
March’s percentage increase in imports was the largest on record.
It all means a turnaround form 2014’s last quarter growth, but markets are expecting better once the temporary weather and strike factors work their way out of the system.
The trade deficit jumped by so much, 43%, that it suggests the US economy contracted in the first quarter. Several analysts have speculated Q1 will be poor because of bad weather. It was the biggest percentage rise since 1996.
Prices for U.S. Treasuries turned positive after the data, while U.S. stock index futures added to losses. The dollar was slightly weaker against a basket of currencies.
March’s percentage increase in imports was the largest on record.
It all means a turnaround form 2014’s last quarter growth, but markets are expecting better once the temporary weather and strike factors work their way out of the system.
Read more: March’s trade gap drags US economy down into the red | euronews, economy
8/29/13
Turkey: Economy faltering - Erdogan’s Top Economic Adviser Takes Heat from Business - by Erdal Sağlam
The Turkish economy was long expected to enter a difficult period, like all developing economies, due to global factors. The troubles, however, are growing as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan keeps hardening his attitude against the private sector over the Gezi Park protests.
Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, who oversees the economy, has a proven record of sound economic management, illustrated by the hitherto positive results. But now he is up for a far harder task.
Erdogan had already demoralized the business community and complicated economic management when he blamed the Gezi Park protests on an “interest rate lobby” and accused certain companies, business people and foreigners. And now tax inspectors, escorted by police, have launched an inspection targeting Turkey’s largest business group Koc. The move is seen as a “punishment” for the refuge that Koc’s Divan Hotel offered to protesters fleeing the heavy-handed police, which Erdogan had publicly condemned.
The incident sparked heavy criticism both in the public opinion and the business community, raising concern over market economy processes and fears of further political escalation.
Babacan has watched the developments in silence. It’s obvious, though, that the existing climate is hampering his ability to steer the economy.
According to the prevailing opinion among business people and local and foreign market players, Erdogan’s interventions in the economy are taking place against the backdrop of Babacan’s discontent.
During recent contacts in Ankara, well-known businessmen, who wished to remain anonymous, questioned whether Erdogan was genuinely looking for a domestic and foreign conspiracy behind the protests. I saw first-hand how they struggled to understand whether Erdogan’s attitude was a political tactic or an impulsive reaction to something he truly believes in. The businessmen were curious about how Babacan views the prime minister’s attitudes and asked questions to understand where he stands.
As the wrangling goes on, financial data show that Turkey’s foreign debt stock, especially its short-term portion, continues to grow and that the already troubling current account deficit is further expanding.
There is no doubt left that the course of the global economy will be no longer that favorable to emerging economies such as Turkey. The latest financial data, too, signals economic volatility. And with Erdogan’s mounting pressure on the business community, things are becoming even harder for the managers of the economy.
Read more: Erdogan’s Top Economic Adviser Takes Heat from Business - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, who oversees the economy, has a proven record of sound economic management, illustrated by the hitherto positive results. But now he is up for a far harder task.
Erdogan had already demoralized the business community and complicated economic management when he blamed the Gezi Park protests on an “interest rate lobby” and accused certain companies, business people and foreigners. And now tax inspectors, escorted by police, have launched an inspection targeting Turkey’s largest business group Koc. The move is seen as a “punishment” for the refuge that Koc’s Divan Hotel offered to protesters fleeing the heavy-handed police, which Erdogan had publicly condemned.
The incident sparked heavy criticism both in the public opinion and the business community, raising concern over market economy processes and fears of further political escalation.
Babacan has watched the developments in silence. It’s obvious, though, that the existing climate is hampering his ability to steer the economy.
According to the prevailing opinion among business people and local and foreign market players, Erdogan’s interventions in the economy are taking place against the backdrop of Babacan’s discontent.
During recent contacts in Ankara, well-known businessmen, who wished to remain anonymous, questioned whether Erdogan was genuinely looking for a domestic and foreign conspiracy behind the protests. I saw first-hand how they struggled to understand whether Erdogan’s attitude was a political tactic or an impulsive reaction to something he truly believes in. The businessmen were curious about how Babacan views the prime minister’s attitudes and asked questions to understand where he stands.
As the wrangling goes on, financial data show that Turkey’s foreign debt stock, especially its short-term portion, continues to grow and that the already troubling current account deficit is further expanding.
There is no doubt left that the course of the global economy will be no longer that favorable to emerging economies such as Turkey. The latest financial data, too, signals economic volatility. And with Erdogan’s mounting pressure on the business community, things are becoming even harder for the managers of the economy.
Read more: Erdogan’s Top Economic Adviser Takes Heat from Business - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
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