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Showing posts with label danger signs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label danger signs. Show all posts
5/3/19
4/8/19
US Economy: Ray Dalio Warns of Dire Consequences From America’s Failing Capitalism - by Cissi Cao
Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio became a capitalist by definition at
the age of 12 (when he started putting money earned from odd jobs into
the stock market) and has since been a firm believer in capitalism. The
system evidently served him well—over the course of 50 years, he went
from being a middle-class boy living in Queens, New York to heading the
world’s largest hedge fund firm with an enviable personal net worth of
$18 billion.
But in recent years, the 69-year-old investing guru has increasingly felt that his success story is irreplicable for the young people of today. And the reason, he figured, lies in the current system of capitalism itself.
Instead of creating a society promoting equal opportunity and economic mobility, capitalism in America today “is producing self-reinforcing spirals up for the haves and down for the have-nots,” Dalio recently wrote in a lengthy essay.
The commentary, shared on Dalio’s LinkedIn page on Thursday, was part one of a bigger discussion about why he believes that capitalism needs to be reformed in order to live on and how it should be done.
To most readers who regularly follow economic news, it’s probably no surprise that the wealth gap in the U.S. is widening between the country’s richest and its poorest. However, in his essay, Dalio underscored a less headline-grabbing, but more important fact, about our economy—that widening wealth gap does not only concern people on the two extremes of the income spectrum, but actually affects everyone in the middle as well.
To illustrate this point, Dalio laid out a series of charts derived from studying America’s richest top 40 percent and the remaining (or the bottom) 60 percent. The finding was astonishing: Since 1980, real income hasn’t grown at all for the bottom 60 percent, while income for the top 40 percent has doubled—and tripled for the top one percent.
As a result, “the income gap is about as high as ever and the wealth gap is the highest since the late 1930s,” Dalio wrote. “Those in the top 40 percent now have on average more than 10 times as much wealth as those in the bottom 60 percent. That is up from six times in 1980.”
He argued that this increasing economic inequality is limiting the resources for children from poor families to get good educations, which hampers their opportunities to get well-paying jobs, which prevents their children from getting a good education again—hence a negative cycle of reinforcement for the poor to be stuck in poverty perpetually.
And if the economic trend continues, there could be serious dangers to social stability and even risks of a total collapse of the government, Dalio warned.
“I believe that, as a principle, if there is a very big gap in the economic conditions of people who share a budget and there is an economic downturn, there is a high risk of bad conflict,” he explained. “Disparity in wealth, especially when accompanied by disparity in values, leads to increasing conflict and, in the government, that manifests itself in the form of populism of the left and populism of the right and often in revolutions of one sort or another.”
That is not to say that socialism will be a possible solution, Dalio clarified, for its inherent lack of an incentive system. “I think that most capitalists don’t know how to divide the economic pie well and most socialists don’t know how to grow it well.”
So what’s the fix? We’ll have to wait for part two of the discussion. You can follow the updates here.
Filed Under: Business, Economy, recession, INCOME INEQUALITY, Ray Dalio, US economy
Read more at: Ray Dalio Warns of Dire Consequences From America’s Failing Capitalism | Observer
But in recent years, the 69-year-old investing guru has increasingly felt that his success story is irreplicable for the young people of today. And the reason, he figured, lies in the current system of capitalism itself.
Instead of creating a society promoting equal opportunity and economic mobility, capitalism in America today “is producing self-reinforcing spirals up for the haves and down for the have-nots,” Dalio recently wrote in a lengthy essay.
The commentary, shared on Dalio’s LinkedIn page on Thursday, was part one of a bigger discussion about why he believes that capitalism needs to be reformed in order to live on and how it should be done.
To most readers who regularly follow economic news, it’s probably no surprise that the wealth gap in the U.S. is widening between the country’s richest and its poorest. However, in his essay, Dalio underscored a less headline-grabbing, but more important fact, about our economy—that widening wealth gap does not only concern people on the two extremes of the income spectrum, but actually affects everyone in the middle as well.
To illustrate this point, Dalio laid out a series of charts derived from studying America’s richest top 40 percent and the remaining (or the bottom) 60 percent. The finding was astonishing: Since 1980, real income hasn’t grown at all for the bottom 60 percent, while income for the top 40 percent has doubled—and tripled for the top one percent.
As a result, “the income gap is about as high as ever and the wealth gap is the highest since the late 1930s,” Dalio wrote. “Those in the top 40 percent now have on average more than 10 times as much wealth as those in the bottom 60 percent. That is up from six times in 1980.”
He argued that this increasing economic inequality is limiting the resources for children from poor families to get good educations, which hampers their opportunities to get well-paying jobs, which prevents their children from getting a good education again—hence a negative cycle of reinforcement for the poor to be stuck in poverty perpetually.
And if the economic trend continues, there could be serious dangers to social stability and even risks of a total collapse of the government, Dalio warned.
“I believe that, as a principle, if there is a very big gap in the economic conditions of people who share a budget and there is an economic downturn, there is a high risk of bad conflict,” he explained. “Disparity in wealth, especially when accompanied by disparity in values, leads to increasing conflict and, in the government, that manifests itself in the form of populism of the left and populism of the right and often in revolutions of one sort or another.”
That is not to say that socialism will be a possible solution, Dalio clarified, for its inherent lack of an incentive system. “I think that most capitalists don’t know how to divide the economic pie well and most socialists don’t know how to grow it well.”
So what’s the fix? We’ll have to wait for part two of the discussion. You can follow the updates here.
Filed Under: Business, Economy, recession, INCOME INEQUALITY, Ray Dalio, US economy
Read more at: Ray Dalio Warns of Dire Consequences From America’s Failing Capitalism | Observer
3/12/19
EU-Russian Relations: Russia will meddle in European elections, keep prepping for war with NATO says Estonian Secret Service Report
 |
| The Big Bad Bear From The East is Eyeing the EU Elections |
All this becomes very clear in an exclusive 70-page report, which provides a window into the activity and goals of the Russian intelligence services from next door in Estonia.
"Russia is very likely to try to intervene in the European Parliament elections to secure as many seats as possible for pro-Russian or eurosceptical political forces," writes the report's author Mikk Marran, director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
The report says Russian intelligence services will also continue
the extensive cyberespionage campaign against the West that they have
pursued for years, with the military intelligence service, called the
GRU, and Russia's spy agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB)
directing most operations.
Cyber espionage groups APT28
and Sandworm are the most active of the Russian-backed groups, usually
exploiting simple online tools and tactics, like phishing campaigns and
"most likely to blur the line between clearly state-sponsored attacks
and the activities of online activists and profiteering cyber
criminals," the report says.
SNAKE APT, a group tied to
the FSB, operates more covertly, according to the report. "Most cyber
and information operations originating from Russia are led by the
special services, particularly the FSB and GRU," who often enlist
cybercriminals to do the work for them.
According to the
report, Russian intelligence and special services use human, cyber and
signals intelligence — electronic and radio signals — to gather
information, including tapping into civilian communication services
inside and outside the country.
The report also tracks Russia's military activities. Last year, says the report, the Russian military expanded its military build-up along the western border, placing seven new maneuver regiments less than 50 km (31 miles) from the border.
Most units are based near Ukraine and Belarus, but one division, the Pskov Air Assault Division, near the Estonian border "became the first division of Russian Airborne Troops to be reinforced with a third regiment."
"Russian armed forces are preparing for a possible war along a wide front," the report says.
Analyzing Russia's most recent exercises, the report finds that "Russian armed forces are consistently practicing for an extensive military conflict with NATO." Leadership in Russia fears the spread of democracy and Russian armed forces leaders believe a military conflict with NATO will be sparked by a "colored revolution" in one of Russia's neighboring countries, in other words Western intelligence services encouraging democratic uprisings.
If crisis breaks out, Russia is most likely to attack the Baltic States first, but a conflict between Russia and NATO would involve attacks on Western Europe, says the report.
Vladimir Putin continues to focus attention on Belarus and moving both the leadership and population closer to Russia and away from any western influences, according to the report. "If anything unexpected should happen to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka personally or to his regime, there will be a great risk of swift military action by Russia to prevent Belarus from becoming a pro-Western democracy," the report finds.
A new trend identified by the report is the Russian state enlisting civilian ships and vessels to carry out activities on behalf of the government. The report identities "provocative behavior" of Russian civilian ships, including entering territorial waters without permission and carrying out research on a nation's submarine communication's networks. Shipowners and crews must at all times be ready to perform national assignments, regardless of geographical location, the report warns.
"The Russian civilian fleet and its activities are a potential security threat," it says. "More attention should be paid to Russian civilian vessels sailing under the Russian flag."
For the complete Estonian report click here.
12/5/18
France: Macron’s crisis in France is a danger to all of Europe - Natalie Nougayrède
For Europe’s sake, Emmanuel Macron needs help – not our scorn or hatred. A young, reformist French president who promised a “European renaissance” finds himself struggling at the helm of a country that is fast becoming “the sick man of Europe” again. It was a telling moment last weekend when rioters disfigured the face of a statue of Marianne, the republic’s symbol, at the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. Just three weeks earlier, world leaders had gathered there with Macron for the centenary of the Armistice. If the “sad passions” that Macron has warned of many times take hold in France, an entire continent will be affected – not just one man’s political career.
Extreme forces across Europe are busily rejoicing over Macron’s gilets jaunes predicament. From Britain’s hardline Brexiters (both left and right) to Italy’s far-right strongman Matteo Salvini, not to mention Putin’s propaganda outlets, the relish is unmistakable. Upheaval and chaos in liberal democracies is what they thrive on. The prize the extremists seek is a political takeover of Europe in next May’s European parliament elections. Events in France are ominous, and their significance extends far beyond one country’s borders.
Not long ago, Macron proudly branded himself as the arch enemy of Salvini and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, two leaders whose trademark policies target migrants, political opponents and the rule of law. Macron is weakened, on the defensive, and ever more isolated.
Scenes in France these past two weeks may seem, to some, like a revival of the May 1968 uprising, but a more pertinent parallel may be 6 February 1934. That day, gangs of far-right nationalists marched on the French capital and clashed with the police in violence that left 15 dead. The events of the day served as a founding myth for that generation of France’s far right.
Read more: Macron’s crisis in France is a danger to all of Europe | Natalie Nougayrède | Opinion | The Guardian
Extreme forces across Europe are busily rejoicing over Macron’s gilets jaunes predicament. From Britain’s hardline Brexiters (both left and right) to Italy’s far-right strongman Matteo Salvini, not to mention Putin’s propaganda outlets, the relish is unmistakable. Upheaval and chaos in liberal democracies is what they thrive on. The prize the extremists seek is a political takeover of Europe in next May’s European parliament elections. Events in France are ominous, and their significance extends far beyond one country’s borders.
Not long ago, Macron proudly branded himself as the arch enemy of Salvini and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, two leaders whose trademark policies target migrants, political opponents and the rule of law. Macron is weakened, on the defensive, and ever more isolated.
Scenes in France these past two weeks may seem, to some, like a revival of the May 1968 uprising, but a more pertinent parallel may be 6 February 1934. That day, gangs of far-right nationalists marched on the French capital and clashed with the police in violence that left 15 dead. The events of the day served as a founding myth for that generation of France’s far right.
Read more: Macron’s crisis in France is a danger to all of Europe | Natalie Nougayrède | Opinion | The Guardian
6/21/17
Middle East - Syria: Are US and Russia inching toward confrontation in Syria?
When a US Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet shot down a
Russian-made Syrian SU-22 warplane after it reportedly attacked
US-supported fighters near the embattled city of Raqqa, it did not take
long for Moscow to respond to what it viewed as an "aggression" against
Syrian government forces, which the Kremlin backs.
Russian officials not only suspended the so-called deconfliction channel with the United States that was set up to avoid potential military incidents between the two countries, but also said the military would shoot down any foreign aircraft west of the Euphrates River, which they consider the Kremlin's area of operations.
Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Middle East Center, said the key question about the latest incident was why Syria's government would even deploy a fighter jet over Raqqa, which it has not done for years.
"My assessment is that the Assad regime is testing and probing the US 'red lines' there and in the badia - i.e., the southeast desert areas - and the US is simply asserting that red line, no more," Sayigh wrote in an email.
The incident put a spotlight on the intensifying proxy war in Syria between forces backed by Russia and those supported by the United States, a conflict that has the potential to increasingly pit the two countries directly against each other in the battle over the future of Syria.
"The risks of escalation and of direct confrontation and more direct conflict between the United States and Russia have increased, and some might even say there are fait accompli since the number of incidents has increased," saidJonathan Stevenson, a former National Security Council director for political-military affairs, Middle East and North Africa, in the Obama White House.
"It's a very dangerous situation," said Iwan Morgan, professor of US studies at University College London. "The chances of confrontation have risen significantly."
Read more: Are US and Russia inching toward confrontation in Syria? | In Depth | DW | 20.06.2017
Russian officials not only suspended the so-called deconfliction channel with the United States that was set up to avoid potential military incidents between the two countries, but also said the military would shoot down any foreign aircraft west of the Euphrates River, which they consider the Kremlin's area of operations.
Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Middle East Center, said the key question about the latest incident was why Syria's government would even deploy a fighter jet over Raqqa, which it has not done for years.
"My assessment is that the Assad regime is testing and probing the US 'red lines' there and in the badia - i.e., the southeast desert areas - and the US is simply asserting that red line, no more," Sayigh wrote in an email.
The incident put a spotlight on the intensifying proxy war in Syria between forces backed by Russia and those supported by the United States, a conflict that has the potential to increasingly pit the two countries directly against each other in the battle over the future of Syria.
"The risks of escalation and of direct confrontation and more direct conflict between the United States and Russia have increased, and some might even say there are fait accompli since the number of incidents has increased," saidJonathan Stevenson, a former National Security Council director for political-military affairs, Middle East and North Africa, in the Obama White House.
"It's a very dangerous situation," said Iwan Morgan, professor of US studies at University College London. "The chances of confrontation have risen significantly."
Read more: Are US and Russia inching toward confrontation in Syria? | In Depth | DW | 20.06.2017
8/5/15
Bye Bye UK: Push Or Jump? Why The UK Could Be Facing A ‘Brexpulsion’ Rather Than A ‘Brexit’ - by Iain Begg
The UK’s EU referendum is likely to
be heavily influenced by the extent to which David Cameron is successful
in his attempt to renegotiate the country’s terms of membership.
Iain Begg writes
that while Cameron’s intention appears to be to gain enough from a
renegotiation to win the referendum, he faces a difficult balancing act
in keeping other EU governments on side. Should the rest of the EU reach
the conclusion that retaining the UK is not worth the price that has to
be paid, the country could find itself slowly pushed toward the exit
door.
Read more: Push Or Jump? Why The UK Could Be Facing A ‘Brexpulsion’ Rather Than A ‘Brexit’ » Social Europe
1/12/15
The Global Economy: Why Your Financial Future Is In Danger - by Lynn Parramore,
Alan Taylor,
a professor and Director of the Center for the Evolution of the Global
Economy at the University of California, Davis, has conducted, along
with Moritz Schularick, ground-breaking research on the history and role of credit,
partly funded by the Institute for New Economic Thinking.
He finds that
today’s advanced economies depend on private sector credit more than
anything we have ever seen before. His work and that of his colleagues
call into question the assumption that was commonplace before 2008, that
private credit flows are primarily forces for stability and
predictability in economies.
If current trends continue, Taylor
warns, our economic future could be very different from our recent past,
when financial crises were relatively rare. Crises could become more
commonplace, which will impact every stage of our financial lives, from
cradle to retirement.
Do we just fasten our seatbelts for a bumpy ride,
or is there a way to smooth the path ahead? Taylor discusses his
findings and thoughts about how to safeguard the financial system in the
interview that follows. This interview was conducted by Lynn Parramore,
Senior Research Analyst at the Institute for New Economic Thinking.
For the complete interview click here:: Why Your Financial Future Is In Danger
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