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| The Big Bad Bear From The East is Eyeing the EU Elections |
As they have been doing all along, the Russians will continue their political destabilizing activities in Europe also in 2019, with a special focus on May this year, to influence the European
Parliament elections, continue intelligence and influence operations
against the West, and keep preparing for armed conflict with NATO,
according to the latest annual threat assessment by
the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Services.
Russia
will target the European parliamentary elections in May, the report
says, with a likely focus on the larger member states — Germany, France
and Italy — where it can hope to have the most influence on the
composition of the E.U. Parliament, whose members are elected for
five-year terms
"Russia is very likely to try to intervene in the European Parliament
elections to secure as many seats as possible for pro-Russian or
eurosceptical political forces," writes the report's author Mikk Marran,
director general of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.
The report says Russian intelligence services will also continue
the extensive cyberespionage campaign against the West that they have
pursued for years, with the military intelligence service, called the
GRU, and Russia's spy agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB)
directing most operations.
Cyber espionage groups APT28
and Sandworm are the most active of the Russian-backed groups, usually
exploiting simple online tools and tactics, like phishing campaigns and
"most likely to blur the line between clearly state-sponsored attacks
and the activities of online activists and profiteering cyber
criminals," the report says.
SNAKE APT, a group tied to
the FSB, operates more covertly, according to the report. "Most cyber
and information operations originating from Russia are led by the
special services, particularly the FSB and GRU," who often enlist
cybercriminals to do the work for them.
According to the
report, Russian intelligence and special services use human, cyber and
signals intelligence — electronic and radio signals — to gather
information, including tapping into civilian communication services
inside and outside the country.
All Russian communications service providers are required to give the
FSB access their networks and information," says the report. Russian
authorities force service providers operating in Russia to disclose
their decryption keys, while the FSB works to decrypt communications
from foreign service providers.
The report also tracks Russia's military activities. Last year, says the report, the Russian military expanded its military build-up along the western border, placing seven new maneuver regiments less than 50 km (31 miles) from the border.
Most units are based near Ukraine and Belarus, but one division, the Pskov Air Assault Division, near the Estonian border "became the first division of Russian Airborne Troops to be reinforced with a third regiment."
"Russian armed forces are preparing for a possible war along a wide front," the report says.
Analyzing Russia's most recent exercises, the report finds that "Russian armed forces are consistently practicing for an extensive military conflict with NATO." Leadership in Russia fears the spread of democracy and Russian armed forces leaders believe a military conflict with NATO will be sparked by a "colored revolution" in one of Russia's neighboring countries, in other words Western intelligence services encouraging democratic uprisings.
If crisis breaks out, Russia is most likely to attack the Baltic States first, but a conflict between Russia and NATO would involve attacks on Western Europe, says the report.
Vladimir Putin continues to focus attention on Belarus and moving both the leadership and population closer to Russia and away from any western influences, according to the report. "If anything unexpected should happen to President Alyaksandr Lukashenka personally or to his regime, there will be a great risk of swift military action by Russia to prevent Belarus from becoming a pro-Western democracy," the report finds.
A new trend identified by the report is the Russian state enlisting civilian ships and vessels to carry out activities on behalf of the government. The report identities "provocative behavior" of Russian civilian ships, including entering territorial waters without permission and carrying out research on a nation's submarine communication's networks. Shipowners and crews must at all times be ready to perform national assignments, regardless of geographical location, the report warns.
"The Russian civilian fleet and its activities are a potential security threat," it says. "More attention should be paid to Russian civilian vessels sailing under the Russian flag."
For the complete Estonian report click here.
